February 20, 2025 7:34am

In a February of 1 holiday, 7 positive and 5 negative sessions

Earnings continue to be important in a holiday shortened week; LPS (loss per share), revenue uplifts and lags, clinical progress with some program uncertainty, a dearth all followed by estimate misses

News: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed down -$0.14 with a positive +$0.69 or +2.17% pre-open with news of additional data from the pivotal P3 OASIS and OASISplus studies, as well as 3-year data from the P2 open-label extension (OLE) study of donidalorsen, the company’s investigational RNA-targeted prophylactic medicine for hereditary angioedema (HAE).

Breaking: Jobless claims come in slightly higher than expected: Initial filings for unemployment benefits edged higher last week but were still consistent with a labor market in which employers are keeping their workforce levels consistent. Weekly jobless claims were slightly higher than expected at 219,000 for the week ending Feb. 15. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast 215,000. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, also nudged higher, totaling 1.87 million for an increase of 24,000.

No false narratives or fake news; to read insights and analysis on the latest sector action, check out Pre-Open Brief …

Pre-open Indications: 1 Sell into Strength, 1 Negative and 5 Positive Indications

 I am NOT often wrong and always consider doubt of some market and sector share pricing movements

Never leave an investor uninform

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened to make “it” happen today!

 

Wednesday’s night’s … RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell:  a sign, advanced/decline line is dropping! … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13808

 

Thursday; the pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.30% or (-133 points), the S&P futures DOWN -0.32% or (-19 points) and the Nasdaq futures are DOWN -0.30% or (-67 points)

  • Stock futures moved lower on Thursday, February 20, 2025,
  • European stock markets were slightly higher,
  • Asia-Pacific markets fell Thursday,

 

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +71.25 points or +0.16%, the S&P closed UP +14.57 points or +0.24% while the Nasdaq closed UP +14.99 points or +0.07%

The S&P 500 posted its 2nd consecutive winning session after hitting another all-time high while the Nasdaq and the 30-stock Dow also finished in positive territory as investors shrugged off President Trump’s warning of more tariffs.

Economic Data Docket: Initial jobless claims, week ending Feb. 15, (213,000 prior); Philadelphia Fed business outlook, February (25.4 expected, 44.3 prior); Leading index, January (0% expected, -0.1% prior)

 

Q1/25: February – 5 negative and 7 positive closes

  • January – 2 holidays, 1 market close, 10 negative and 10 positive closes

Q4/24:

  • December 1 holiday, 15 negative and 5 positive closes
  • November 10 negative and 9 positive closes
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context

I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths.

A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Sell into Strength:

Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$1.17 after Tuesday’s +$1.27 with a positive +$0.22 or +3.40% pre-open. Profit …

 

Negative Indications:

Compass Therapeutics (CMPX) closed up +0.21 with a negative -$0.03 or -0.89% aftermarket

 

Positive Indications:

BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed down -$0.39 after Tuesday’s $0.55 after Friday’s +$0.63 with a negative +$0.22 or +0.79% pre-open

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed down -$0.14 with a positive +$0.69 or +2.17% pre-open with news of additional data from the pivotal P3 OASIS and OASISplus studies, as well as 3-year data from the P2 open-label extension (OLE) study of donidalorsen, the company’s investigational RNA-targeted prophylactic medicine for hereditary angioedema (HAE). Results will be presented at the 2025 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology (AAAAI) / World Allergy Organization (WAO) Joint Congress in San Diego, California. The New Drug Application (NDA) for donidalorsen to prevent attacks of HAE in adult and pediatric patients 12 years of age and older is currently under review with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), with a target action date of August 21, 2025.

Regenxbio (RGNX) closed down -$0.12 after Tuesday’s +$0.28 after Friday’s -$0.02 with a positive +$0.19 or +2.55% aftermarket

Mesoblast (MESO) closed down -$0.58 with a positive +$$0.53 pre-open

Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed down -$0.41 after Tuesday’s -$0.10 after Friday’s +$0.87 with a positive +$0.53 or +5.57% pre-open

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  Reiterating, “Take the emotion out of the sector, think of the reality of the “plays” that exist of who’s really buying.”

It’s earnings season all most a quarterly life crisis.

  • The coming batch of quarterly earnings will provide last years, FY2024’s LPS (loss-per-share), some EPS, consensus meets and non-greets, cash positions, runways and partner status for investors

Think about it; one of the biggest problems with the cell and gene therapy sector’s share pricing is …  99% of them have no earnings! If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject.

  • However, “our” universe’s share pricing is still “dangling” beneath upcoming Q4/2024 earnings releases with no umbrella although some sector companies released pre-lim unaudited snapshots of Q4 and FY2024 at JP Morgan Healthcare Conference!

I think speculative behavior in this current market has ascended to a level beyond common sense

  • Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, as sector companies will seek opportunities to sell to better financed companies that can "deal with these additional costs associated of R&D and escalating SG&A.

 

NOT much has changed, as I have written, “uncle algo and his trading dwarfs” determine the heights or lows of share pricing”

  • Prepare for earnings and more market volatility related to inflation oriented econs …

 

February ‘25: understand the “flow” …

  • 2/19 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 19 incliner, 14 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/18 - Tuesday ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/17 – Monday was a market holiday – President’s Day
  • 2/14 – Friday - ended with a positive close at the close of 20 incliner, 11 decliners and 4 flats
  • 2/13 – Thursday ended with a positive close at the close of 23 incliner, 10 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/12 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/11 - Tuesday ended with a negative close at the close of 4 incliner, 29 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/10 – Monday ended with a negative close at the close of 11 incliner, 23 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/7 – Friday ended with a negative close at the close of 2 incliner, 31 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/6 – Thursday ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 24 decliners and 3 flats
  • 2/5 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 26 incliner, 4 decliners and 5 flats
  • 2/4 - Tuesday ended with a positive close at the close of 24 incliner, 9 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/3 – Monday - ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats

 

Earnings are a-comin’ … from Q4/24 and FY24 are due …

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) - Tuesday, 2/11
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) - Tuesday, 2/11
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) – Thursday, 2/13
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Thursday, 2/13
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE). Thursday, 2/13
  • Moderna (MRNA) - Friday, 2/14
  • Ionis pharmaceuticals IONS) – Wednesday, 2/19
  • AxoGen (AXGN) – Tuesday, 2/25
  • MiMedx (MDXG) – Wednesday, 2/26

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space as Partners are the gift of life!

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in the market… capital expansion is second.

I seem to be asking a question followed by a question …

  • Do we need to brace ourself for more economics and their down trending affect?
  • Is this market STILL “bubblicious” my concerns are macroeconomic and valuation

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.