May 12, 2025 4:48pm

Most often used to refer to the movements of prices in the stock market

However, ignoring valuations, earnings reports, and other data; will the greater fool theory be in play as we could be left holding the bag after a market news uplift?

The greater fool theory argues that prices go up because people are able to sell overpriced securities to a "greater fool," whether or not they are overvalued.

Earnings: Agenus (AGEN) Net loss of -$26.4 M or -$1.03, collaboration revenue or $24.1 M, cash of $18.5 M in cash with a 2025 runway.

Never leave an investor uninformed! 

 

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

My mission is to provide clear, actionable guidance on a regular basis to help investors and traders navigate the uncertain and often irrational financial markets.

I put hours of effort to create reporting, while leveraging my 40 years of operating and research experiences to analyze the key market-moving events and distill that into a cogent outlook.

 

Monday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: what goes down, goes up as earnings sees their shadow… https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13914

 Friday night’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: I warned of Friday’s sector reaction … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13913

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Harvard Apparatus GT (OTCQB: HRGN) Chronicles: Yet another "screw job" for/on investors ... "wanting to effect a reverse split of its outstanding common stock" in its recent proxy statement filing!! … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13812

 

Monday: The Dow closed UP +1,160.72 points or +2.81%, the S&P closed UP +164.28 points or +3.26% while the Nasdaq closed UP +779.43 points or +4.35%

  • Indexes rallied Monday after the U.S. and China agreed to temporarily slash tariffs following negotiations over the weekend in Switzerland.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Treasury yields soared as the China agreement was seen as taking a recession off the table for now.
  • The agreement to reduce U.S. tariffs on most Chinese imports to 30% and cut China’s tariffs on U.S. goods to 10% topped market expectations — but uncertainties remain??

Monday’s advance/decline line opened with a positive 29 incliner, 3 decline and 2 flats ending with a positive close of 30 incliners, 3 decliners and 2 flats    

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was up +5.42%, the XBI was up +3.06% while the VIX was down -3.76 points or -17.14% at 18.19

 

Q2/25 – May – 4 negative and 4 positive closes

  • April – 11 positive and 10 negative closes

Q1/25

  • March, 10 positive and 12 negative closes
  • February – 12 holiday, 11 negative and 7 positive closes
  • January - 2 holidays, 1 market close, 10 negative and 10 positive closes

 

Mondays Closing UP (10 of 30) 

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.97 after Friday’s -$0.52),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$3.03 after Friday’s +$0.47),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$3.14 after Friday’s -$1.59),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$19.04 after Friday’s -$7.20),
  • Moderna (MRNA +$1.45),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.27 after Friday’s -$0.49),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.98 after Friday’s -$0.87),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.92),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.83 after Friday’s +$0.16),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.60 after Friday’s +$0.93)

Flat (3)

  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN $0.00 after Friday’s $0.00)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Monday’s Closing DOWN (3 of 3): 

  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$021),
  • Adverum Biotechnology (ADVM -$9,19 after Friday’s -$0.31),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.07 after Friday’s +$0.06)

 

The BOTTOM LINE: cell and gene therapy sector started the 3rd week …with a positive close

  • Ending with a Friday negative post Thursday and Wednesday’s positive closes … followed by 2 negative closes (the previous Tuesday and Monday)
  • Following a Friday positive close as May started with a negative Thursday

What more can be written, a surprise deal to dramatic call cut tariffs

May ‘25: understand the “flow” …

  • 5/12 - Monday positive with 39 positive, 3 negative and 2 flats
  • 5/9 - Friday closed negative with 10 positive, 23 negative and 2 flats
  • 5/8 – Thursday closed positive with 25 positive, 8 negative and 2 flats
  • 5/7 - Wednesday closed positive with 16 positive, 15 negative and 4 flats
  • 5/6 – Tuesday closed negative with 2 positive, 31 negative and 2 flats
  • 5/5 - Monday closed negative with 9 positive, 23 negative and 3 flats
  • 5/2 – Friday closed positive with 24 positive, 8 negative and 3 flats
  • 5/1 - Thursday closed negative with 14 positive, 19 negative and 2 flats

 

I usually write/say “electronic trading and uncle algo” slips in and out, back doors reaping sector disharmony and then pops right back for some profiteering.

  • What can I say, love ‘em, leave ‘em and welcome back to save the sector’s honor – “uncle algo and his electronic dwarfs.” <me>

My perspective is retail investors should NOT be dipping their toes back into the cell and gene therapy sector until after LPS (loss-per-share) earnings report.

  • NO all ins – just add those with solid partners, lengthened runways and solid cash positions leveraged by solid management teams – there I see losses going forward!

Market news i.e., tariff drive upside yet estimate and consensus misses with continued earnings LPS (loss-per-share) will shake the sector down – the vig must be paid!

“I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!”

  • If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, x-FBI, x-military officer and an adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; my life and your portfolio are largely tied to knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets and more.

 

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space – DESPERATE  

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy companies DESPARITE drive for financings – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in pipelines … capital expansion is second.

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
  • Friday: BioLife Solutions (BLFS), uniQure NV (QURE) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Monday: bluebird bio (BLUE), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) and Cellectis SA (CLLS)
  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and AxoGen (AXGN)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.