May 30, 2025 8:05am

Short-term data is noisy and then, uncertainty compounds as Trump tariffs reinstated by appeals court

American Association of Individual Investors bearish opinion toward stocks over the next 6-months grew to 41.9% this week from 36.7% last week, above its historical average of 31.0% for the 26th time in 28 weeks.

A note from the Goldman Sachs trading desk showed that U.S. pension funds are expected to sell $20 B of equities as part of their month-end rebalancing. This comes after stocks strongly outperformed major bond funds in May, meaning that institutions with strict asset allocation rules need to make significant trades to get back in balance.

 

Breaking: Futures took a leg down on Friday morning after Trump claimed in a social media post that China “violated” its current trade agreement with the U.S. That comes after Treasury Secretary Bessent said in a Fox News interview that U.S.-China trade talks “are a bit stalled.” The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s key inflation measure, increased just 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.1%.

News: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.28 pre-open) the FDA has granted orphan drug designation to BEAM-302, a liver-targeting lipid-nanoparticle (LNP) formulation of a guide RNA and an mRNA encoding a base editor designed to correct the disease-causing mutation in patients with alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD). AATD is an inherited genetic disorder that affects the lungs and/or liver, leading to early onset emphysema and liver disease, and for which there is significant unmet need for effective therapies that can treat the entire spectrum of disease.

No false narratives or fake news; to read insights and analysis on the latest sector action, check out Pre-Open Brief

Never leave an investor uninformed!

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

“I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!”

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened to make “it” happen today!

 

Thursday’s night’s … RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: I always thought were a military exercise and now a sector reality … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13938

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Harvard Apparatus GT (OTCQB): No partner, No cash, NO runway, extensive liabilities and debts to past employee and university associations … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13812

 

Breaking (cont): The PCE (personal consumption expenditures price index), the Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure, monthly reading was in line with consensus forecast while the annual level was 0.1 percentage point lower. Excluding food and energy, the core reading that tends to get even greater focus from Fed policymakers showed readings of 0.1% and 2.5%, against respective estimates of 0.1% and 2.6%. Consumer spending, though, slowed sharply for the month, posting just a 0.2% increase, in line with the consensus but slower than the 0.7% rate in March. A more cautious consumer mood also was reflected in the personal savings rate, which jumped to 4.9%, up from 0.6 percentage point in March to the highest level in nearly a year Personal income surged 0.8%, a slight increase from the prior month but well ahead of the forecast for 0.3%.

 

Thursday: The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.31% or (-130 points), the S&P futures are DOWN -0.38% or (-22.50 points) and the Nasdaq futures are DOWN -0.36% or (-77.25 points)

  • Stock futures were barely negative on Friday pre-open,
  • European stock markets rise amid U.S. tariff uncertainty,
  • Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell Friday

 

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Thursday: The Dow closed UP +1178.03 points or +0.28%, the S&P closed UP +23.62 points or +0.40% while the Nasdaq closed UP +74.93 points or +0.39%

Wednesday: The Dow closed DOWN -244.95 points or -0.58%, the S&P closed DOWN -32.99 points or -0.56% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -98.23 points or -0.51%

Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +740.58 points or +1.58%, the S&P closed UP +118.72 points or +2.05% while the Nasdaq closed UP +461.96 points or +2.47%

Monday was a holiday

Last Friday: The Dow closed DOWN -256.02 points or -0.61%, the S&P closed DOWN -39.19 points or -0.67% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -188.53 points or -1%

Economic Data Docket:  personal consumption expenditures is expected to show inflation still above 2%

  • Economists expect PCE to rise 0.1% month over month and 2.2% year over year. For core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, projections call for a 0.1% monthly increase and 2.6% for the year.

 

Q2 – May – 1 market holiday, 9 negative and 11 positive closes

  • Q2 - April – 10 negative and 11 positive closes

Q1/25

  • March, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • February – 12 holiday, 11 negative and 7 positive closes
  • January - 2 holidays, 1 market close, 10 negative and 10 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context

I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths.  A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Better part of valor to not lead any investor to temptation; yet again, I am passing on forecasting the daily indications as to expectation while the aftermarket blanked while the pre-open waits for the …  econs, it is still a mix of ups, downs and just uncertainty

  • Econs = ugs

The BOTTOM LINE: Tariff and its legal shuffle news stimulates the latest dose of uncertainty for what was an already uneasy market.

  •  Investors have contended with macroeconomic concerns tied to tariffs and worry that the shakeup to U.S. trade policy could cause a recession.
  • Today, the last session on May is whimsical with fleeting gains following a rocky April.
  • The S&P 500 has jumped 6%+ this month, the Nasdaq surged 10% and the Dow has gained about 4%.

Maintaining, “When you think of wanting to decant (selling) or fill (buying) your portfolio carafe, always consider it, a glass half-full.”

May ‘25: understand the “flow” of bad market and economic karma…

  • 5/29 –Thursday closed positive with 24 positive, 10 negative and 1 flat
  • 5/28 -Wednesday closed negative with 7 positive, 26 negative and 2 flats
  • 5/27 - Tuesday closed positive with 21 positive, 11 negative and 3 flats
  • 5/26 - Monday. Market closed - holiday
  •  
  • 5/23 - Friday closed negative with 7 positive, 25 negative and 3 flats
  • 5/22 – Thursday closed positive with 19 positive, 14 negative and 2 flats
  • 5/21 – Wednesday closed negative with 3 positive, 30 negative and 2 flats
  • 5/20 – Tuesday closed positive with 23 positive, 9 negative and 3 flats
  • 5/19 - Monday closed positive with 23 positive, 12 negative and 1 flat
  • 5/16 - Friday closed positive with 29 positive, 3 negative and 3 flats
  • 5/15 – Thursday closed positive with 24 positive, 10 negative and 1 flat
  • 5/14 – Wednesday closed negative with 8 positive, 25 negative and 2 flats
  • 5/13 – Tuesday closed negative with 6 positive, 28 negative and 1 flat
  • 5/12 – Monday closed positive with 30 positive, 3 negative and 2 flats
  • 5/9 – Friday closed negative with 10 positive, 23 negative and 2 flats
  • 5/8 - Thursday closed positive with 25 positive, 8 negative and 2 flats
  • 5/7 – Wednesday closed positive with 16 positive, 15 negative and 4 flats
  • 5/6 – Tuesday closed negative with 2 positive, 31 negative and 2 flats
  • 5/5 - Monday closed negative with 9 positive, 23 negative and 3 flats
  • 5/2 – Friday closed positive with 24 positive, 8 negative and 3 flats
  • 5/1 – Thursday closed negative with 14 positive, 19 negative and 2 flats

 

As always, brace ourself for more volatility, tariff foreplays, economics and their down trending affect?

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in