July 31, 2025 4:36pm

Furling mainsail, gas low, as cell and gene therapy sector cut and ran to mooring

Earnings Releases: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCERL) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ) <see in The Bottom Line>

News: Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) completes acquisition of Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)

The present and future value of RegMed Investors (RMi) earnings sheds light on the cell and gene therapy sector’s risks to share pricing and the sector’s upside acrobatics and downslides

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

My perspective is retail investors should roll-the-dice with econ readings until earnings season kicks-in and momentum wains in the cell and gene therapy sector. NO all ins as historically “our” universe slips and slides as the “season’ resumes; so, hang-in with those with solid partners, lengthened runways and solid cash positions leveraged by solid/stable management teams!

 

Thursday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: So … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/14040

RegMedInvestors (RMi) Finance note: Prime Medicine (PRME) prices offering … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/14038   

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Sustaining a Loser … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13812

 

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -330.30 points or -0.74%, the S&P closed DOWN -25.35 points or -0.37% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -7.23 points or -0.03%

  • Theme of the session, last day of what has been a strong month

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy

  • Weekly initial jobless claims rose less than expected, to 218,000 vs. 217,000 in the previous week. They were expected to climb to 225,000.
  • Inflation in June was a touch hotter than expected and still above target. The personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) showed a 12-month seasonally adjusted rate of 2.6% on the headline measure and 2.8% on core excluding food and energy. Both were 0.1% point higher than the consensus forecast. However, the monthly increases of 0.3% were in line.
  • Personal income increased 0.3%, compared to the 0.2% estimate, while spending also rose 0.3%, against the outlook for 0.4%.

Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative with 8 incliners, 21 decliners and 6 flats ending with a negative close of 3 incliners, 25 decliners and 7 flats         

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was down -0.94%, the XBI was down -0.58% while the VIX was up +1.17 points or +7.56% at 16.65

 

Q3 – 7/25 – 1 market holiday, 13 positive and 9 negative closes

  • Q2/25: June – 1 market holiday, 1 neutral, 9 negative and 11 positive closes, May – 1 market holiday, 10 negative and 11 positive closes and April – 11 positive and 10 negative closes

 

Thursday Closing UP (3 of 3) 

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$52.44 after Wednesday’s +$9.25 after Tuesday’s +$5.76 and Monday’s -$4.02),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.67 after Wednesday’s -$0.15),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.18 after Wednesday’s -$0.52 after Tuesday’s +$0.05 after Monday’s +$0.27),

Flat (7)

  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)
  • bluebird bio (BLUE) P/E acquired
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) acquired by SNY
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN) Ponzi scheme
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) acquired by Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN)
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV) – acquired by LLY

Thursday’s Closing DOWN (10 of 25): 

  • Vericel (VCEL -$5.72 after Wednesday’s +$0.80, Tuesday’s -$1.59 and Monday’s +$1.33),
  • Moderna (MRNA -$2.59 after Wednesday’s -$0.51, Tuesday’s -$1.33 and Monday’s -$0.24)
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.42 after Wednesday’s -$1.34 after Tuesday’s -$4.73 after Monday’s -$1.01),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.99 after Wednesday’s -$0.91 and Tuesday’s +$0.165),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.69 after Wednesday’s -$0.17, Tuesday’s -$0.61 and Monday’s -$0.49),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.56 after Wednesday’s -$0.28),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.54 after Wednesday’s +$0.78 and Tuesday’s -$1.30),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.44 after Wednesday’s +$0.22, Tuesday’s -$0.90 and Monday’s -$0.89),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.39 after Wednesday’s +$1.89, Tuesday’s +$0.31 and Monday’s -$1.08),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.38 after Wednesday’s -$0.23 after Tuesday’s +$0.44 after Monday’s -$0.38),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: The cell and gene therapy sector continues its decline as well as its mojo …

Major indexes were mixed Thursday, paring morning gains, amid news on the stock market today that President Trump has signed a letter to 17 pharmaceutical makers urging them to cut prescription drug prices within the next 60 days. <IBD)

  • The Nasdaq pared gains -0.1% having made a high of 21,122.45 as the Nasdaq 100 index slipped 0.7%.
  • The Russell 2000 slumped 0.9%. Overall trading volume accelerated nearly 11% vs. the same time on Wednesday on the Nasdaq.

For the week:

  • The S&P 500 is down 49.25 points, or 0.8%.
  • The Dow is down 770.94 points, or 1.7%.
  • The Nasdaq is up 14.13 points, or 0.1%.
  • The Russell 2000 is down 49.42 points, or 2.2%.

 

The Health Care Select Sector (XLV) exchange traded fund dropped 2.2% and traded virtually at session lows. After the ETF lost support at or around its 50-day moving average back in late March, it has sharply underperformed the general market.

Eli Lilly (LLY), which also makes a host of medicines to treat cardiovascular disease, cancer and other life-threatening conditions, slipped nearly 2% and marked a 2-month low of $744.09. LLY has dropped 4 sessions in a row; its Relative Strength Rating is a poor 19 on a scale of 1 to 99.

  • Eli Lilly (LLY)with a market value of $707 billion, has now fallen 23% below its all-time high of 972.53.

 

Earnings:

Sage Therapeutics (SAGE): net loss of -$49.7 M or -$0.79 per share, revenue of $23.2M, a cash position of $366 M – acquired

Vericel (VCEL): net loss of -$0.06 M or -$0.01 per share, revenue of $63.2M, a cash position of $164 M and a runway until 2027

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY): net loss of -$66.3 M or -$0.51 per share, revenue of $773.7 M, a cash position of $2.86 B and a N/A runway

Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ): net loss of -$14.9 M or -$0.53 per share, revenue of $5 M, a cash position of $209.6 M and a runway until 2026

To date:

uniQure NV (QURE) a net loss of -$37.7 M, or -$0.69 per share with revenue of $5.3 M, an R&D increase and an SG&A decrease and a cash position of $377.7 M with a runway until 2H/27 <missed revenue estimate and consensus>

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) a net income of +124 M, or +$0.70 per share with revenue of $452 M, and a cash position of $2.3 B with a runway until FY28 < estimate and consensus beats>

MiMedx (MDXG) a net income of +$100 M or +$0.06 per share with revenue of $99 M and a cash position of $100 M with a runway until 2026.

 

However, sector investor “worried” eyes should be focused on upcoming earnings releases, and a jam-packed econ week.

  • Maybe after all, I should have taken this week off … to avoid the nervous and the on-coming pain

 

More earnings are a’comin: 8/1 Friday = Moderna (MRNA), 8/4 -Monday Cellectis SA (CLLS) and 8/5, Tuesday = AxoGen (AXGN) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), 8/7 Thursday = Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and Regenxbio (RGNX)

 

July ended better than past months; although, I considered the so-called summer rally … peripatetic or wandering.”

  • There are always some big ifs, especially given some of the headlines that could emanate after a past few months of news flatulence.

 

July ends: understand the “flow” …

  • 7/31 - Thursday closed negative with 3 positive, 25 negative and 7 flats
  • 7/30 - Wednesday closed negative with 12 positive, 18 negative and 5 flats
  • 7/29 – Tuesday closed negative with 8 positive, 22 negative and 5 flats
  • 7/28 – Monday closed negative with 14 positive, 16 negative and 5 flats

Last week:

  • 7/25 – Friday closed positive with 17 positive, 14 negative and 4 flats
  • 7/24 – Thursday closed negative with 7 positive, 25 negative and 3 flats
  • 7/23 – Wednesday closed positive with 30 positive, 1 negative and 4 flats
  • 7/22 – Tuesday closed positive with 19 positive, 10 negative and 6 flats
  • 7/21 – Monday closed positive with 17 positive, 14 negative and 4 flats

The previous week:

  • 7/18 – Friday closed negative with 10 positive, 21 negative and 4 flats
  • 7/17 – Thursday closed positive with 17 positive, 14 negative and 4 flats
  • 7/16 - Wednesday closed positive with 24 positive, 5 negative and 6 flats
  • 7/15 – Tuesday closed negative with 3 positive, 29 negative and 3 flats
  • 7/14 - Monday closed positive with 20 positive, 11 negative and 4 flats

Week #2:

  • 7/11 - Friday closed negative with 5 positive, 28 negative and 2 flats
  • 7/10 - Thursday closed positive with 19 positive, 14 negative and 2 flats
  • 7/9 – Wednesday closed positive with 28 positive, 5 negative and 2 flats
  • 7/8 - Tuesday closed positive with 22 positive, 10 negative and 3 flats
  • 7/7 – Monday closed negative with 6 positive, 27 negative and 2 flats

Week #1:

  • 7/4 – Friday market holiday
  • 7/3 – Thursday closed positive with 23 positive, 6 negative and 6 flats
  • 7/2 - Wednesday closed positive with 24 positive, 7 negative and 4 flats
  • 7/1 – Tuesday closed positive with 21 positive, 11 negative and 3 flats

 

“I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!”

  • If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, x-FBI, x-military officer and an adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; my life and your portfolio are largely tied to knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets and more.
  • I was once told by a “very” prominent figure early in my career, “write it right, keep it tight without hype and never lose the stride to guide the reader” – they were pretty simple instructions to follow!

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), MiMedx (MDXG) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Lenz Pharmaceuticals (LENZ) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Lenz Pharmaceuticals (LENZ) and AxoGen (AXGN)
  • Monday: Vericel (VCEL), Agenus (AGEN) and Cellectis SA (CLLS)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Thursday: Vericel (VCEL) Moderna (MRNA) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Lenz Pharmaceuticals (LENZ) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Moderna (MRNA) and uniQure NV (QURE)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.