August 4, 2025 4:35pm

A bounce-back session of share pricing relief with an exclamation from Roy Rogers

Earnings today: BioNTech (BNTX) a net loss of (€)387 M or (€)1.60 per share with revenue of (€)260.8 M and a cash position of (€)160.8 B and a runway beyond 2027; Wave Life Sciences Ltd. (WVE) a net loss of -$50.5 m or -0.31 per share, revenue of $8.7 M, a cash position of $208.5 M with a runway until 2027

The peril facing the cell and gene therapy sector isn’t just from bad news, econs or algorithms within electronic trading; it’s finding reliable, accurate and transparent data. There is a distinct difference between investing with indication intelligence and/or guidance to understand potential risks and reward. Understand how bad news could be, it helps to follow RMi that offers share pricing realities and warning analysis

While the present and future value of RegMed Investors (RMi) earnings sheds light on the cell and gene therapy sector’s “current” acrobatics

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

My perspective is retail investors should roll-the-dice with econ readings until earnings season kicks-in and momentum wains in the cell and gene therapy sector. NO all ins as historically “our” universe slips and slides as the “season’ resumes; so, hang-in with those with solid partners, lengthened runways and solid cash positions leveraged by solid/stable management teams!

 

Monday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: Mount-up after multiple sector bottoms … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/14046

Friday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: Feet wet … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/14045

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Sustaining a Loser … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13812

 

Monday: The Dow closed UP +585.06 points or +1.34%, the S&P closed UP +91.93 points or +1.47% while the Nasdaq closed UP +403.45 points or +1.95%

  • Theme of the session, clawing back the steep losses seen in previous sessions

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy

  • Factory orders in June tumbled 4.8% after an upwardly revised 8.3% increase in May. Economists had forecast factory orders would decline 4.8% after a previously reported 8.2% jump in May. Orders were up 3.8% on a year-over-year basis in June.

Monday’s advance/decline line opened positive with 25 incliners, 10 decliners and 0 flats ending with a positive close of 27 incliners, 8 decliners and 0 flat           

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was up +2.33%, the XBI was up +0.89% while the VIX was down -2.77 points or -13.60% at 17.61

 

Q3 – August – 1 negative and 1 positive closes

  • July – 1 market holiday, 13 positive and 9 negative closes

Q2/25: June – 1 market holiday, 1 neutral, 9 negative and 11 positive closes, May – 1 market holiday, 10 negative and 11 positive closes and April – 11 positive and 10 negative closes

 

Coverage Dropped: bluebird bio (BLUE) Private Equity acquired, Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) acquired by SNY, Homology Medicine (FIXX), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) acquired by SUPN, Verve Therapeutics (VERV) – acquired by LLY

Added: BioNTech (BNTX), Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT), Supernus Pharma (SUPN), IQVIA Holdings (IQV) and Wave Life Sciences Ltd. (WVE)

 

Monday Closing UP (10 of 27) 

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$17.76 after Friday’s +$9.56),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$3.50 after Friday’s -$0.17),
  • BioNTech (BNTX +$2.69),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.95 after Friday’s +$0.69),
  • Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN +$1.54),
  • Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) +$1.19),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.63),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.46 after Friday’s +$0.30) – public offering closed,
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.42 after Friday’s +$0.05),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO +$0.37),

Flat (0)

Monday’s Closing DOWN (8 of 8): 

  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.63 after Friday’s +$0.19),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.12 after Friday’s -$0.42),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.10),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.0266 after Friday’s +$0.0245),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.02 after Friday’s +$0.0045),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.01)
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.01),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.01)

 

The BOTTOM LINE: The market is bracing for a historically weak month … August is the worst month for the Dow in data going back to 1988, and the 2nd worst for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

  • Investors should buckle up as August and September roll around, according to Canaccord Genuity pointing to the historical underperformance of the 2 months — particularly September, known as “The September Effect.”
  • “Going back to 1957, the S&P 500 in September has been down on average -0.74% and has shown positive performance only 43% of the time. August on its own is marginally better with an average return of ~0.20%, and Aug-Sep taken together is the worst-performing 2-month sequential combination on the calendar,” the bank wrote.

July ended better than past months; although, I considered the so-called summer rally … “peripatetic or wandering.”

  • There are always some big ifs, especially given some of the headlines that could emanate after a past few months of news flatulence.

Small caps were also making gains, with the Russell 2000 index up 1.3%. The index has now climbed back above its 50-day moving average as well as its 200-day line.

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Earnings to date:

Moderna (MRNA) a net loss of -$0.8 B, or -$2.13 per share with revenue of $142 M, an R&D and an SG&A decrease and a cash position of $7.5 B with a runway until 2026 <beats revenue estimate and earnings consensus>.

Sage Therapeutics (SAGE): net loss of -$49.7 M or -$0.79 per share, revenue of $23.2M, a cash position of $366 M – acquired

Vericel (VCEL): net loss of -$0.06 M or -$0.01 per share, revenue of $63.2M, a cash position of $164 M and a runway until 2027

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY): net loss of -$66.3 M or -$0.51 per share, revenue of $773.7 M, a cash position of $2.86 B and a N/A runway

Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ): net loss of -$14.9 M or -$0.53 per share, revenue of $5 M, a cash position of $209.6 M and a runway until 2026

uniQure NV (QURE) a net loss of -$37.7 M, or -$0.69 per share with revenue of $5.3 M, an R&D increase and an SG&A decrease and a cash position of $377.7 M with a runway until 2H/27 <missed revenue estimate and consensus>

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) a net income of +124 M, or +$0.70 per share with revenue of $452 M, and a cash position of $2.3 B with a runway until FY28 < estimate and consensus beats>

MiMedx (MDXG) a net income of +$100 M or +$0.06 per share with revenue of $99 M and a cash position of $100 M with a runway until 2026.

BioNTech (BNTX) a net loss of (€)387 M or (€)1.60 per share with revenue of (€)260.8 M and a cash position of (€)160.8 B and a runway beyond 2027

Wave Life Sciences Ltd. (WVE) a net loss of -$50.5 m or -0.31 per share, revenue of $8.7 M, a cash position of $208.5 M with a runway until 2027

 

More earnings are a’comin: 8/5, Tuesday = Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) <Replaces/Acquired Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), AxoGen (AXGN) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), 8/6 – Wednesday Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT), 8/7 Thursday = Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and Regenxbio (RGNX)

 

August begins as July ends: understand the “flow” …

  • 8/4 – Monday closed positive with 27 positive, 8 negative and 0 flat
  • 8/1 – Friday closed negative with 9 positive, 20 negative and 6 flats

Last week (July):

  • 7/31 - Thursday closed negative with 3 positive, 25 negative and 7 flats
  • 7/30 - Wednesday closed negative with 12 positive, 18 negative and 5 flats
  • 7/29 – Tuesday closed negative with 8 positive, 22 negative and 5 flats
  • 7/28 – Monday closed negative with 14 positive, 16 negative and 5 flats

“I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!”

  • If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, x-FBI, x-military officer and an adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; my life and your portfolio are largely tied to knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets and more.
  • I was once told by a “very” prominent figure early in my career, “write it right, keep it tight without hype and never lose the stride to guide the reader” – they were pretty simple instructions to follow!

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), BioNTech (BNTX) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), and Vericel (VCEL)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Monday: Lenz Pharmaceuticals (LENZ), AxoGen (AXGN) and Compass Therapeutics (CMPX)
  • Friday: Moderna (MRNA), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.