October 8, 2025 4:43pm

Back to the upside after 2 negative closes while sentiment sings loud

After shutdown is dragged into its 8th day

We are getting closer to Q3 LPS (loss-per-share) earnings releases waiting for a share pricing debacle and uplift to the risk curve

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

Fed officials in September were strongly inclined to lower interest rates, with the only dispute seeming to be over how many cuts were coming, meeting minutes released today showed.

The SPDR S&P Biotech exchange-traded fund (XBI) is up 9.2% in a month and 15.1% YTD. The Large Cap Pharma sector has risen 8.4% in a month and 8.1% YTD.

M&A activity has also improved investor outlook toward the pharma sector, which has struggled this year due to tariff and pricing fears and broader macro headwinds.

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed DOWN -1.20 points or -0.00%, the S&P closed UP +39.13 points or +0.58% while the Nasdaq closed UP +255.015 points or +1.12%

  • Theme of the session: as investors/traders/hedge funds rebalance their portfolios, while also acknowledging there could/might be further upside

Wednesday’s (my) 40-company covered sector’s advance/decline line opened positive with 23incliners, 15 decliners and 2 flats ending with a positive close of 29 incliners, 10 decliners and 1 flat

  • In a 54-45 vote, the Senate did not advance a GOP-led stopgap bill that would have funded the government through late November. An alternative funding bill backed by Democrats also failed in a 47-52 vote.

Metrics:  Wednesday, the RUT was up +24.94 points or +1.01%, the IBB was up +0.51 points or +1%, the XLV was up +0.25 points or +0.17%, the XBI was up +1.79 points or +1.73% while the VIX was down -0.92 points or -5.34% at 16.32

 

Q4 – 4 positive and 2 negative closes

Q3 – September - 1 holiday, 9 negative and 12 positive closes; August - 12 negative and 9 positive closes; July - 1 market holiday, 13 positive and 9 negative closes

 

Wednesday Closing UP (10 of 29) 

  • Vertex (VRTX +$10.87 after Tuesday’s +$7.38 and Monday’s -$0.40),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$6.16 after Tuesday’s +$0.43 and Monday’s +$2.45),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$4.03),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$2.05 after Tuesday’s +$5.01 and Monday’s -$2.01),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.87 after Tuesday’s -$0.76 and Monday’s +$0.14),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.71),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$1.66 after Tuesday’s -$0.83 and Monday’s -$2.63),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$1.66 after Tuesday’s +$0.77 and Monday’s -$1.09),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$1.12 after Tuesday’s -$0.45 and Monday’s -$1.02),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.04 after Tuesday’s -$0.22),

Flat (1)

  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI)

Wednesday’s Closing DOWN (10 of 10): 

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$8.90 after Tuesday’s +$7.58 and Monday’s -$4.35),
  • IQV Holdings (IQV -$0.26 after Tuesday’s -$4.16 after Monday’s -$1.59),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.16),
  • Precigen (PGEN -$0.09 after Tuesday’s +$0.17),
  • Agenus (AGEN -$0.08),
  • Supernus Therapeutics (SUPN -$0.07 after Tuesday’s -$0.24),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.06 after Tuesday’s -$0.36),
  • Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR -$0.02 after Tuesday’s -$0.31 and Monday’s +$0.45),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN -$0.01 after Tuesday’s +$0.04 and Monday’s $0.00),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.0061),

 

The Bottom Line: More of the … WHYs …

I can’t seem to let go of this quote, “It’s always darkest before the pitch dark”

The government shutdown stretches into its 8th day …

After multiple uplifting sessions, the cell and gene therapy sector jumped the line after being timed out

  • I remain a skeptic, as electronic trading remains the impetus to, I believe the cell and gene therapy sector gets artificially … high and low” … as proven in past sessions by “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs”!
  • Keep your wallet closed!

The S&P 500 is up nearly 17% year-to-date, and multiple sectors have been registering new peaks.

When dramatic upsides occur, investors are often unsure exactly what to do, but they frequently act as if they do confidently know the best path forward – don’t be LULLED into an uncertainty position!

Watch for the ascension of the risk curve as earnings begin!

 

October: understand the “flow” …

  • 10/8 – Wednesday closed positive with 29 positive, 10 negative and 1 flat
  • 10/7 – Tuesday closed negative with 15 positive, 25 negative and 0 flat
  • 10/6 – Monday closed negative with 17 positive, 22 negative and 1 flat

Last week:

  • 10/3 – Friday closed positive with 27 positive, 10 negative and 3 flats
  • 10/2 - Thursday closed positive with 26 positive, 13 negative and 1 flat
  • 10/1 – Wednesday closed positive with 26 positive, 14 negative and 0 flat
  • 9/30 -- Tuesday closed positive with 24 positive, 15 negative and 1 flat
  • 9/29 – Monday closed positive with 33 positive, 5 negative and 2 flats

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.
  • “I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Why do I keep repeating, framed in a different para, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Wednesday: Vertex (VRTX), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Intellia therapeutics (NTLA)
  • Tuesday: Vertex (VRTX), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and uniQure NV (QURE)
  • Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Arrowhead Pharma (ARWR) and Vericel (VCEL)

The worst three (3) in the session:

  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), IQV Holdings (IQV) and MiMedx (MDXG)
  • Tuesday: IQV Holdings (IQV), Beam therapeutics (BEAM) and Arrowhead Pharma (ARWR)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ) and uniQure NV (QURE)

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC):

The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.