October 27, 2025 4:44pm

C&GT sector close slipped from Friday, “If you understand probabilities, the inevitable is easier to maneuver” …  that something will happen predictably; it’s about the algo “rules” of risk and how weighty they are!

The Fed's 2-day policy meeting kicks off tomorrow. The Fed is a lock to cut its key interest rate by another 1/4-point on Wednesday, with the policy statement due at 2 p.m. and Chair Powell's 2:30 p.m. news conference

27-day’s shutdown begins 5th week and counting

RMi collects, interprets and disseminates cell and gene therapy sector (C&GT) news, intel and share pricing data to bridge the gap to an investment decision

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

After my recovery from a past week of a VERY debilitating “virus/bug”; I STILL made a commitment to provide need-to-know “facts in evidence” as sector closes are 1 tactical signal for “our” universe’s equities. My thesis is important in trying to distinguish the temporary from the real, pricing digression and progress

RMi pre-open: Navigating … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/14168  

Sunday’s Mid-day RMi Research Note: Fanning the faith … NVS to acquire RNA … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/14167

The past, present and future values of RMi’s analysis sheds light on the cell and gene therapy sector’s “current” acrobatics

 

Monday: The Dow closed UP +337.47 points or +0.71%, the S&P closed UP +83.47 points or +1.23% while the Nasdaq closed UP +432.589 points or +1.86%

  • Theme of the session: after U.S. and China officials cooled tensions over the weekend

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the macro-economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy

  • The Dallas Federal Reserve reported the monthly survey of business conditions showing a reading of 5.2 for the key production index, unchanged from September. Though the general business activity index improved, it was still negative at -5.0, up from -8.7 a month ago. Inflation-related indexes eased a bit while the employment index rose 5.4 points to 2.0.
  • Expect the Fed to slash rates on Wednesday

Monday’s (my) 40-company covered sector’s advance/decline line opened positive with 22 incliners, 16 decliners and 2 flats ending with a negative close of 18 incliners, 22 decliners and 0 flat

Metrics:  Monday …

  • The RUT was up +6.97 points or +0.28%,
  • The IBB was up +1.95 points or +1.26%,
  • The XLV was up +0.34 points or +0.23%,
  • The XBI was up +3.20 points or +2.95% … while
  • The VIX was down -0.57 points or -3.48% at 15.80

 

Q4 – 1 neutral, 9 positive and 9 negative closes

Q3 – September - 1 holiday, 9 negative and 12 positive closes; August - 12 negative and 9 positive closes; July - 1 market holiday, 13 positive and 9 negative closes

 

Monday Closing UP (10 of 18)

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$15.15 after Friday’s -$0.57
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$6.91 after Friday’s +$1.68
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$2.13 after Friday’s -$0.64),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$1.78 after Friday’s -$0.10),
  • Arrowhead Pharma (ARWR +$1.48 after Friday’s +$0.65),
  • Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT +$0.69 after Friday’s +$0.92),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.59 after Friday’s +$0.45),
  • Wave Life Sciences (WVE +$0.49),
  • Entrata Therapeutics (TRDA +$0.48 after Friday’s +$0.43),
  • BioNTech (BNTX +$0.39 after Friday’s +$0.91)

Flat (0)

Monday’s Closing DOWN (10 of 22):

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$10.81 after Friday’s -$0.29),
  • IQV Holdings (IQV -$3.15 after Friday’s +$0.62),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.89),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.23 after Friday’s -$0.24),
  • Vertex (VRTX -$1.22 after Friday’s +$1.24)
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.75),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.68 after Friday’s +$0.59),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.47),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.40),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.18 after Friday’s -$0.05)

 

The Bottom Line: More of the … WHYs

Indexes were off session peaks but were still poised to add to last week's record highs.

  • While the U.S. makes progress in trade talks with China, the Treasury Secretary Bessent made progress in the hunt for the next Fed chair to replace Jerome, with a “name” at the end of the year!
  • Small caps were barely positive, with the Russell 2000 up 0.1%.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield was essentially flat at 4%.

The Cboe Volatility Index fell again to 15.80 Monday following Friday’s 16.33, Thursday’s 17.27, Wednesday’s 18.69, Tuesday’s 18.03, last Monday’s 18.48 as compared to the previous Friday’s 20.83 (having seen 28 at one point on Friday)

 

A good quote, ““Much like a Sherlock Holmes’ story, inflation is the dog that didn’t bark. So many people have been expecting a sharp increase in inflation and have positioned bearishly as a result, but the market is likely to keep squeezing the shorts until they realize that the economy – and Corporate America – is more resilient than many expected.” <Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management>

 

I see a beginning through end-of-week interruption coming from earnings expectation and consensus ... always considering earnings season by its LPS (loss-per-share) historical outcomes

  • Sector Q3 earnings begin with IQV Holdings (IQV) on 10/28, MiMedx (MDXG), AxoGen AXGN) MiMedx (MDXG) Ionis Pharmaceuticals IONS), AxoGen AXGN) on 10/29 with BioNTech (BNTK) on 11/3, Supernus Therapeutics (SUPN) on 11/4 followed by Moderna (MRNA) and Vericel (VCEL) on 11/6
  • Think about it; one of the biggest problems with the cell and gene therapy sector’s share pricing is …  99% of them have no earnings! Revenue from collaborations and runways have become indications of sustainability.
  • I believe earnings per share (EPS) estimates need to be revised along with the response to their share pricing declines upon their release to shake-off pipeline uncertainties
  • Meeting earnings expectation and/or missing consensus will deem share pricing outcomes
  • As earnings evolve, I think it's important to focus on fundamentals, advancing clinical catalysts, “runways” and sector company’s capacity/ability to finance

 

I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!  As the leading voice of cell and gene therapy investors; I am NOT always a doom and gloom analyst/journalist but a man who has been “there” (BUY, SELL, VC and multiple operating roles) with the gray hair and a readership following with real numbers to prove it!

 

October: understand the “flow” …

New week

  • Monday closed negative with 18 positive, 22 negative and 0 flats

Last week:

  • 10/24 - Friday closed positive with 25 positive, 13 negative and 2 flats
  • 10/23 – Thursday closed negative with 15 negative, 22 negative and 3 flats
  • 10/22 – Wednesday closed negative with 4 positive, 34 negative and 2 flat
  • 10/21 - Tuesday closed negative with 17 positive, 23 negative and 0 flat
  • 10/20 - Monday closed positive with 34 positive, 4 negative and 2 flats

The previous week:

  • 10/17 – Friday closed negative with 11 positive, 28 negative and 1 flat
  • 10/16 - Thursday closed negative with 17 positive, 22 negative and 1 flat
  • 10/15 - Wednesday closed positive with 31 positive, 9 negative and 1 flat
  • 10/14 - Tuesday closed positive with 28 positive, 12 negative and 0 flat
  • 10/13 - Monday closed neutral with 20 positive, 20 negative and 0 flat

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.
  • “I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Why do I keep repeating, framed in a different para, so investors can make the connection

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), uniQure NV (QURE) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Friday: uniQure NV (QURE), Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) and BioNTech (BNTX)

The worst three (3) in the session:

  • Monday: Intellia therapeutics (NTLA), IQVIA Holdings (IQV) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Friday: Vertex (VRTX), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY),

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC):

The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.