October 30, 2025 4:51pm

The end is near in October’s month and China tariff tensions while shutdown monopolizes news, sector earnings continue paining share pricing and uncertainties strive higher yet rumor and M&A help some with breaks to upside

Rumor: Moderna (MRNA +$3.44 or +13.93% to $28.14) in discussions with at least 1 pharmaceutical company about "a deal of significant scope," which could include a potential acquisition. According to the report, which cited a person familiar with the discussions, the nature of the potential agreement remains unclear, with both a buyout and a large partnership being considered as options. <STAT News>

M&A helps sector: Metsera (MTSR +$11.52 or +22.06% to $63.37) stock surged after Novo Nordisk (NVO) offered to buy the obesity-focused biotech for at least $6.5 billion while entering a bidding war with Pfizer (PFE)

RMi collects, interprets and disseminates cell and gene therapy sector (C&GT) news, intel and share pricing data to bridge the gap to an investment decision

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

30thday’s shutdown, 13th Democratic negative vote, 5th week and counting

RMi pre-open: Reaction … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/14174

The past, present and future values of RMi’s analysis sheds light on the cell and gene therapy’s (C&GT) sector’s “current” acrobatics

 

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -110.07 points or -0.23%, the S&P closed DOWN -68.23 points or -0.99% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -377.329 points or -1.58%

  • Theme of the session: dragging indexes and another C&GT sector continues 4th session rotation

Thursday’s (my) 40-company covered sector’s advance/decline line opened negative with 14 incliners, 25 decliners and 1 flat ending with a negative close of 13 incliners, 25 decliners and 2 flat

Metrics:  Thursday …

  • The RUT was down -18.87 points or -0.76%,
  • The IBB was up +0.34 points or +0.22%,
  • The XLV was up +0.32 points or +0.23%,
  • The XBI was up + 0.95 points or +0.86% … while
  • The VIX was up +0.03 points or +0.18% at 16.95

 

Q4 – 1 neutral, 10 positive and 12 negative closes

Q3 – September - 1 holiday, 9 negative and 12 positive closes; August - 12 negative and 9 positive closes; July - 1 market holiday, 13 positive and 9 negative closes

 

Wednesday Closing UP (13 of 13) +$ after Wednesday’s

  • Moderna (MRNA +$3.44 after Wednesday’s -$0.65 after Tuesday’s -$1.31),
  • Vertex (VRTX +$2.68 after Wednesday’s -$5.18 after Tuesday’s +$2.22 after Monday’s -$1.22)
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$2.29 after Wednesday’s -$1.69, Tuesday’s +$0.58 after Monday’s +$2.13),
  • Arrowhead Pharma (ARWR +$2.02 after Wednesday’s +$0.74 Tuesday’s +$0.07 after Monday’s +$1.48),
  • BioNTech (BNTX +$1.32 after Wednesday’s -$1.68,Tuesday’s -$1.02 and Monday’s +$0.39),
  • Supernus Therapeutics (SUPN +$0.82 after Wednesday’s +$2.51 after Tuesday’s +$0.45),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.58),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.43 after Wednesday’s +$4.17, Tuesday’s +$0.31 and Monday’s -$0.40),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.21 after Wednesday’s +$0.31 after Tuesday’s +$0.15),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.07),
  • Wave Life Sciences (WVE +$0.04 after Wednesday’s +$0.67),
  • Precigen (PGEN +$),
  • Entrada Therapeutics (TRDA +$0.01 after Wednesday’s +$0.46),

Flat (2)

  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)

Thursday’s Closing DOWN (10 of 25): 

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$32.03, after Wednesday’s +$5.68, Tuesday’s -$2.67 and Monday’s +$15.15),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$2.73 after Wednesday’s +$0.59,  Tuesday’s +$2.08 and Monday’s +$6.91),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.46 after Wednesday’s -$1.61, Tuesday’s -$1.55 and Monday’s -$1.89),
  • IQVIA Holdings (IQV +$1.41),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.97 after Wednesday’s -$1.66, Tuesday’s -$0.30 and Monday’s -$1.23),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.85 after Wednesday’s -$0.84, Tuesday’s -$0.83 and Monday’s -$10.81),
  • Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR -$0.71 after Wednesday’s +$0.74),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.64),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.35 after Wednesday’s -$1.95 after Tuesday’s +$0.36),
  • Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT -$0.20 after Wednesday’s -$0.77, Tuesday’s +$0.72 and Monday’s +$0.69),

 

The Bottom Line: More of the … WHYs

Good news on tariffs and lowering fentanyl related ingredients, tech and sector earnings, M&A for biotechs/cell therapies acts like bad news to markets – can’t catch a break!

Lagging indexes …

  • The impact of the overnight Trump-Xi meeting was mixed, even as it delivered effectively a 1-year trade truce. The US will halve fentanyl-related tariffs on China in return for a 12-month pause in Beijing's curbs on rare earth supplies, while China has pledged to start buying American soybeans again. <Yahoo Finance>

The C&GT sector faced a challenging 1H/25, lately there’s been a strong rebound in the 2H/25, particularly among biotechs, following a significant increase in M&A activity.

  • There has been a 20% reduction in listed companies in the biotech sector over the past 40 months.
  • Despite a slow IPO market this year, 2025.
  • There is an increasing focus on clinical data, companies with clinical assets possess higher enterprise value.
  • In Q3 2025, the total deal value for venture financing in the biotech industry reached $3.1bn, up from $1.8bn from the same period in 2024, according to a GlobalData report. < Aditya Kotta, CRO Novotech>

Concern: Fed chair Powell adlibbed in his post-meeting news conference (Wednesday) to dispel the notion that a December rate reduction would be “a slam dunk”.

  • Traders aren’t buying the hawkish rhetoric. Fed fund futures pricing Thursday still indicated a 75% probability of a cut in December, though that was down from around 90% the day before, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch. <CNBC>

It’s not hard to be right so often, it’s about refining expectation, defining insight and NOT being indentured to ANY financial institution!

I see mid-week an interruption coming … from earnings expectation and consensus always considering earnings season LPS (loss-per-share).

  • Sector Q3 earnings begin … with Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) and BioNTech (BNTK) on 11/3, Supernus Therapeutics (SUPN) on 11/4 followed by Moderna (MRNA) and Vericel (VCEL) on 11/6
  • Think about it; one of the biggest problems with the cell and gene therapy sector’s share pricing is …  99% of them have no earnings! Revenue from collaborations and runways have become indications of sustainability.
  • I believe earnings per share (EPS) estimates need to be revised along with the response to their share pricing declines upon their release to shake-off pipeline uncertainties
  • Meeting earnings expectation and/or missing consensus will deem share pricing outcomes
  • As earnings evolve, I think it's important to focus on fundamentals, advancing clinical catalysts, “runways” and sector company’s capacity/ability to finance

 

As the leading voice of cell and gene therapy investors; I am NOT always a doom and gloom analyst/journalist but a man who has been “there” (BUY, SELL, VC and multiple operating roles) with the gray hair and a readership following with real numbers to prove it!

 

October: understand the “flow” …

New week

  • 10/30 – Thursday closed negative with 13 positive, 25 negative and 2 flats
  • 10/29 - Wednesday closed negative with 9 positive, 30 negative and 1 flat
  • 10/28 -Tuesday closed negative with 16 positive, 21 negative and 3 flats
  • 10/27 - Monday closed negative with 18 positive, 22 negative and 0 flats

Last week:

  • 10/24 - Friday closed positive with 25 positive, 13 negative and 2 flats
  • 10/23 – Thursday closed negative with 15 negative, 22 negative and 3 flats
  • 10/22 – Wednesday closed negative with 4 positive, 34 negative and 2 flat
  • 10/21 - Tuesday closed negative with 17 positive, 23 negative and 0 flat
  • 10/20 - Monday closed positive with 34 positive, 4 negative and 2 flats

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.
  • “I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Why do I keep repeating, framed in a different para, so investors can make the connection

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Thursday: Moderna (MRNA), Vertex (VRTX) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), AxoGen (AXGN) and Supernus Therapeutics (SUPN)
  • Tuesday: Vertex (VRTX), uniQure NV (QURE) and Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), uniQure NV (QURE) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)

The worst three (3) in the session:

  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), uniQure NV (QURE) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Wednesday: Vertex (VRTX), Vericel (VCERL) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Moderna (MRNA
  • Monday: Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), IQVIA Holdings (IQV) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC):

The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.