November 4, 2025 4:33pm

November continued with C&GT sector’s collateral damage; so much for an initial seasonality non-boost as valuations and breath in decline

Pre-open Indication Scoring: 7 Hits and 2 Miss

35th day’s shutdown, 2nd month with 14th Democratic negative votes and counting

News: Royalty Pharma plc (RPRX) has acquired a royalty interest in Alnylam Pharmaceuticals’ (ALNY -$10.45 or -2.41% to $423.47) AMVUTTRA from funds managed by Blackstone Life Sciences (BLS) for $310 M. The royalty interest being sold stems from BLS’ financing with ALNY, to support AMVUTTRA’s pivotal P3 HELIOS-B trial.

RMi collects, interprets and disseminates cell and gene therapy sector (C&GT) fact-based news, trusted and verified intel and share pricing data to bridge the gap to an investment decision

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

Investors also still face a murky economic outlook after the Fed pushed back on the prospect of further interest-rate reductions, with the US in a data blackout based on the government shutdown

RMi pre-open: New month … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/14178

The past, present and future values of RMi’s analysis sheds light on the cell and gene therapy’s (C&GT) sector’s “current” acrobatics

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -251.07 points or -0.53%, the S&P closed DOWN -80.30 points or -1.17% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -486.087 points or -2.04%

  • Theme of the session: pressured by Ai, the C&GT sector and tech declines

We need to more than consider the macro-economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy

  • Loss of confidence among investor; it is earnings’ season as shutdown persists

Tuesday’s (my) 40-company covered sector’s advance/decline line opened negative with 8 incliners, 30 decliners and 2 flats ending with a negative close of 10 incliners, 30 decliners and 0 flat

Metrics:  Tuesday …

  • The RUT was down -43.71 points or -1.77%,
  • The IWM was down -4.25 or -1.73%;
  • The IBB was down -1.38 points or -0.88%,
  • The NBI was down -53.22 points or -1%;
  • The XLV was up +0.56 points or +0.39%,
  • The XBI was down -1.82 points or -1.66% … while
  • The VIX was up +1.720. points or +10.02% at 18.89

 

Q4 – November- 2 negative closes

  • October -1 neutral, 11 positive and 12 negative closes

Q3 – September - 1 holiday, 9 negative and 12 positive closes; August - 12 negative and 9 positive closes; July - 1 market holiday, 13 positive and 9 negative closes

 

Tuesday Closing UP (10 of 10) 

  • Supernus Therapeutics (SUPN +$1.30 after Monday’s +$0.57),
  • BioNTech (BNTX +$0.88 after Monday’s +$0.04),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.52 after Monday’s +$1.03),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.17),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$0.12 after Monday’s -$1.79),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN +$0.12 <50 shares traded> after Monday’s $0.00),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.05),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.03),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.01),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.01)

Flat (0)

Tuesday’s Closing DOWN (10 of 30):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$10.45 after Monday’s -$22.12),
  • Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT -$8.25 after Monday’s +$0.44),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$5.56 after Monday’s -$2.02),
  • Vertex (VRTX -$4.33 after Monday’s +$0.43),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$3.85 after Monday’s -$33.40),
  • IQVIA Holdings (IQV -$2.84 after Monday’s -$2.46),
  • Arrowhead Pharma (ARWR -$1.76 after Monday’s -$2.78),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.51 after Monday’s -$0.76),
  • Moderna (MRNA -$1.16 after Monday’s -$2.25),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$1.01 after Monday’s -$1.13),

 

The Bottom Line: More of the … WHYs

Sector equities got leveled today as Q3 earnings continued to flow as the market stuttered again down 

Issue … sector BREATH based on the uncertainty on many fronts, starting with the shutdown questions on legality of tariffs, etc. and etc.

The electronic trading algos’ “rules” sought safer ground by selling into the sector which has been a usual practice but, not as “loud” as today.

Funny how the uniQure NV (QURE) implosion and Sarepta therapeutics (SRPT) 2 drug candidates failure signified the relationship to “the hope for a cure”!

 

Reiterating, “The Ai blame claims on falling employment and more falls on deaf ears to me casting a blind eye on sentiment; productivity does NOT happen overnight! Companies re past employment hires have suffered bigger eyes than size of their stomachs; now they hope to attribute to Ai!” <me>

It’s not hard to be on the cusp so often, it’s about refining expectation, defining insight and NOT being indentured to ANY financial institution!

 

I see mid-week an interruption coming … from earnings expectation and consensus always considering earnings season LPS (loss-per-share).

  • Sector Q3 earnings … Moderna (MRNA) and Vericel (VCEL) on 11/6 followed by Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR) and Wave Life Sciences (WVE) on 11/10
  • Think about it; one of the biggest problems with the cell and gene therapy sector’s share pricing is …  99% of them have no earnings! Revenue from collaborations and runways have become indications of sustainability.
  • I believe earnings per share (EPS) estimates need to be revised along with the response to their share pricing declines upon their release to shake-off pipeline uncertainties
  • Meeting earnings expectation and/or missing consensus will deem share pricing outcomes
  • As earnings evolve, I think it's important to focus on fundamentals, advancing clinical catalysts, “runways” and sector company’s capacity/ability to finance

 

Expectation: Fate Therapeutics (FATE) is expected to post a Q3 loss of $0.29 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +27.5%. Revenues are expected to be $0.85 million, down 72.3% from the year-ago quarter.

 

As the leading voice of cell and gene therapy investors; I am NOT always a doom and gloom analyst/journalist but a man who has been “there” (BUY, SELL, VC and multiple operating roles) with the gray hair and a readership following with real numbers to prove it!

 

November: understand the “flow” …

New week and month, November:

  • 11/4 – Tuesday closed negative with 10 positive, 30 negative and 0 flat
  • 11/3 – Monday closed negative with 10 positive, 26 negative and 4 flats

October’s last week:

  • 10/31 – Friday closed positive with 28 positive, 11 negative and 1 flat
  • 10/30 – Thursday closed negative with 13 positive, 25 negative and 2 flats
  • 10/29 - Wednesday closed negative with 9 positive, 30 negative and 1 flat
  • 10/28 -Tuesday closed negative with 16 positive, 21 negative and 3 flats
  • 10/27 - Monday closed negative with 18 positive, 22 negative and 0 flats

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.
  • “I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Why do I keep repeating, framed in a different para, so investors can make the connection

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Tuesday: Supernus Therapeutics (SUPN), BioNTech (BNTX) and AxoGen (AXGN)
  • Monday: Vericel (VCEL), AxoGen (AXGN) and Supernus Therapeutics (SUPN)  
  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vertex (VRTX) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

The worst three (3) in the session:

  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vertex (VRTX) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Monday: uniQure NV (QURE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Arrowhead Pharma (ARWR)
  • Friday: Supernus Therapeutics (SUPN), Moderna (MRNA) and BioNTech (BNTX

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC):

The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.