December 19, 2025 4:54pm
Great tailwinds until headwinds threaten; I would be taking profit from these” covering” highs
RMi collects, curates, interprets and disseminates cell and gene therapy sector (C>) fact-based news, trusted and verified intel and share pricing data to bridge the gap to an investment decision
It’s not always time to buy or sell; but it is time to KNOW and why!
Never leave a retail investor uninformed!
TGIF
I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about – facts in evidence!
Friday’s RMi Pre-opening: Quadruple Witching … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/14237
RMi Research Note: Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR) I am NOT the ONLY dissenter … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/14233
I also, follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”
Friday: The Dow closed UP +183.04 points or +0.38%, the S&P closed UP +59.74 points or +0.88% while the Nasdaq closed UP +301.26 points or +1.31%
- Theme of the session: regaining its highs with volatility is induced by quadruple witching
Friday’s (my) 40-company covered sector’s advance/decline line opened positive with 34 incliners, 5 decliners and 1 flat ending with a positive close of 27 incliners, 10 decliners and 3 flats
- A dramatic turnaround for the sector
Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the macro-economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy (C>) sector
- Housing inventory dropped 5.9% in November from October. The median price of a home sold in November, meanwhile, was $409,200, an increase of 1.2% from November 2024. Homes are staying on the market longer, at 36 days compared with 32 days last November. Sales of previously owned homes rose just 0.5% in November from October and were 1% lower than November 2024. Sales came in at an annualized rate of 4.13 M units.
- Consumer sentiment for December increased less than expected, a University of Michigan survey showed. Its monthly Index reported a reading of 52.9 for the month, up from the 51.0 reading for November but still below the 53.5 that economists had been looking for.
The CBOE Fear (VIX) index closed Friday at 14.96 after Thursday’s 16.74, Wednesday’s 17.66, Tuesday’s 16.48, Monday’s 16.46 following last Friday’s 15.81
Metrics: Friday …
- The RUT was up +21.56 points or +0.86%,
- The XLV was up +1.03 points or +0.67%,
- The NBI was up +135.29 points or +2.41%;
- The XBI was up +3.42 points or +2.85%
- The IWM was up +2.10 or +0.84%;
- The IBB was up +4.01 points or +2.41%,
- The VIX was down -1.91 points or -11.32% at to 14.96
Q4 – December – 6 positive and 9 negative closes
- November – 1 holiday, 8 positive and 11 negative closes
- October -1 neutral, 11 positive and 12 negative closes
Friday Closing UP (10 of 27)
- Vertex (VRTX +$8.82 after Thursday’s -$2.14 after Wednesday’s -$5.44 after Tuesday’s +$0.75 after Monday’s +$3.57),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$4.9 after Thursday’s +$3.94 after Wednesday’s +$0.93),
- Moderna (MRNA +$2.85 after Thursday’s +$0.44 after Wednesday’s +$0.62),
- Supernus Therapeutics (SUPN +$2.20 after Thursday’s +$0.53 after Wednesday’s +$0.43 after Tuesday’s +$1.04 after Monday’s +$0.42),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.94 after Thursday’s +$0.55 after Wednesday’s -$1.29 after Tuesday’s -$1.39 after Monday’s -$1.21),
- Arrowhead Pharma (ARWR +$1.69 after Thursday’s +$1.67 after Wednesday’s +$0.14 after Tuesday’s -$3.79 after Monday’s -$1.51),
- Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR +$1.62),
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.08 after Thursday’s +$0.34 after Wednesday’s -$0.94 after Tuesday’s +$0.28),
- BioNTech (BNTX +$1.04 after Thursday’s -$0.14 after Wednesday’s -$0.63 after Tuesday’s -$1.52 after Monday’s -$0.77),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.09)
Flat (3)
- Adverum Biotechnologies ADVM) – acquired
- Rocket Therapeutics (RCKT),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE)
Friday’s Closing DOWN (10 of 10):
- IQVIA Holdings (IQV -$1.87 after Thursday’s +$0.42 after Wednesday’s +$1.09 after Tuesday’s -$1.95 after Monday’s +$0.81),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.27),
- MiMedx (MDXG -$0.20),
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.12 after Thursday’s -$0.14)
- Vericel (VCEL -$0.11 after Thursday’s -$0.24 after Wednesday’s +$0.90 after Tuesday’s -$0.99),
- Agenus (AGEN -$0.07),
- Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.05),
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.0409),
- Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN -$0.01),
- Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.01)
The Bottom Line: More of the … WHYs
Most C> sector equities popped on Friday and Thursday after Wednesday and Tuesday declined followed Monday after Friday and last Thursday’s declines
Re Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR +$1.62) I am STICKING to my CONVICTION that CAPR is overbought and whose valuation is disconnected from fundamentals.
- Doubts still abound re: regulatory fragility and marginal HOPE-3 results and valuation concerns remain a key hang-up!
- CAPR remains a structurally challenged, chronically unprofitable company whose valuation is disconnected from fundamentals.
Some good: BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) will acquire Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD) for about $4.8 billion, expanding its presence in rare metabolic diseases paying $14.50 per share for FOLD, a premium of 33.1% to the stock’s last close. Shares of Amicus surged 30%, while BMRN rose nearly 5% in premarket trading.
- The deal strengthens BioMarin’s portfolio with Amicus’ approved genetic disorder treatments, including Galafold, an oral drug for Fabry disease, which is caused by a faulty gene that leads to a buildup of fatty substances in cells. Amicus also markets a combination therapy, Pombiliti and Opfolda, for Pompe disease, a genetic condition in which a complex sugar called glycogen builds up in the body’s cells.
Take it a session at a time … the REAL question is … how long will this sentiment and conviction “run” last in the “clean-out-the-exposure” December?
A question does NOT answer an inquiry; investors need more than a few catalysts that could revive a rally, I do NOT expect end end-of-year flurry!
- Depleted market valuations and the uncertain payoff from heavy spending as we get closer to 2025 ends and then coming Q4 and FY25 financial and achievement results
3rd week of December:
- 12/19 - Friday closed positive with 27 positive, 10 negative and 3 flats
- 12/18 – Thursday closed positive with 22 positive, 16 negative and 2 flats
- 12/17 – Wednesday closed negative with 12 positive, 26 negative and 2 flats
- 12/16- Tuesday closed negative with 17 positive, 21 negative and 2 flats
- 12/15 – Monday closed negative with 15 positive, 23 negative and 2 flats
2nd December week:
- 12/12 – Friday closed negative with 12 positive, 26 negative and 2 flats
- 12/11 – Thursday closed negative with 18 positive, 19 negative and 3 flats
- 12/10 – Wednesday closed positive with 24 positive, 12 negative and 4 flats
- 12/9 - Tuesday closed negative with 10 positive, 27 negative and 3 flats
- 12/8 - Monday closed positive with 22 positive, 16 negative and 2 flat
The 1st week,
- 12/5 – Friday closed negative with 13 positive, 26 negative and 1 flat
- 12/4 – Thursday closed positive with 26 positive, 12 negative and 2 flats
- 12/3 – Wednesday closed positive with 35 positive, 4 negative and 1 flat
- 12/2 - Tuesday closed negative with 10 positive, 29 negative and 1 flat
- 12/1 – Monday closed negative with 5 positive, 31 negative and 0 flat
As the leading voice of cell and gene therapy investors; I am NOT always a doom and gloom analyst/journalist but a man who has been “there” (BUY, SELL, VC and multiple operating roles) with the gray hair and a readership following with real numbers to prove it!
Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!
- I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.
- I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts and truth are its products; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!
Why do I keep repeating, framed in a different para, so investors can make the connection
The top three (3) performing in the session:
- Friday: Vertex (VRTX), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Moderna (MRNA)
- Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Arrowhead Pharma (ARWR) and IQVIA Holdings (IQV)
- Wednesday: AxoGen (AXGN), uniQure NV (QURE) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
- Tuesday: uniQure NV (QURE), Supernus Therapeutics (SUPN), and Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT)
- Monday: Vertex (VRTX), IQVIA Holdings (IQV) and Moderna (MRNA)
The worst three (3) in the session:
- Friday: IQVIA Holdings (IQV), MiMedx (MDXG) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
- Thursday: Vertex (VRTX), Wave Life Sciences (WVE) and Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT)
- Wednesday: Vertex (VRTX), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
- Tuesday: Arrowhead Pharma (ARWR), IQVIA Holdings (IQV) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
- Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Arrowhead Pharma (ARWR) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC):
The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
