September 21, 2015 6:33am

 

Over the past week, a number of stem, cell and gene therapy regenerative medicine (SCGT&RM) companies had some good runs and a few dips; however, net/net it wasn’t a bad week – my concern after five (5) up days - the algorithmic programs will telegraph traders to start cutting the edges of appreciation! Regenxbio (NASDAQ:RGNX) strikes IPO’s gold.  Read, Monday’s “10” to start the week.

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Stocks mentioned in the pre-open report: Athersys (ATHX), bluebird bio (BLUE) BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Capricor (CAPR), Cellectis ADR (CLLS), Intrexon (XON), Organovo (ONVO), Spark Therapeutics (ONCE), uniQure (QURE), Vericel (VCEL) and Regenxbio (RGNX)

 

DOW futures are UP +0.2% and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.3%

 

U.S. stocks were set for a slightly higher start on Monday, with sentiment bruised by last week's hefty sell-off sparked by the U.S. FED's decision to leave rates steady in the face of an uncertain global growth outlook.

European equities were trading higher despite an uninspiring lead from Asia and Wall Street on the back of the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates near zero.

Asian stocks outside China skidded, tracking an uninspiring lead from Wall Street, as the FED’s decision to keep interest rates near zero stoked concerns about global growth.

Data docket:  Existing home-sales data at 10 am ET and a speech from a key FED member to provide further direction.

 

 

The RegMed sector closed POSITIVE on last Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and the previous Monday.

The RegMed sector closed POSITIVE on last Friday with 15 decliners and 27 advancers following Thursday POSITIVE close with 9 decliners, 30 advancers and 3 flats of the 42 companies followed.

 

 

Narrower spreads, low volume and the impending end of Q3 will make it much harder for sector “participants” to have any control of share pricing!

  • Sector viability is being dissipated by letting underfunded companies continue to exist!

How many more years, can some sector “participants” continue to spin narratives of hope and future return as I-Banks constantly promote extravagant claims.

  • Yes, it’s all about “hedge’s” money and if they want to invest – it’s their ROI issue!

After a quadruple witching Friday, share pricing will probably go lower as these trades are unwound.

 

 

Another gene therapy IPO spreads its wings:

Regenxbio (NASDAQ:RGNX) had a strong performance last week <9/16/15>, with a robust IPO that raised $138.6 M.  RGNX priced 6.3 M shares <above previous plans to offer 5.6 M shares> at $22.00 a share <was expected at $17 to $19.  The shares popped to $30.45 and on Friday were trading at $30.70 having risen $0.40 in the last 3 minutes pre the close on Friday. The deal was "multiple times oversubscribed."

  • RGNX is focused on developing, commercializing and licensing recombinant adeno-associated virus gene therapy with a proprietary delivery platform to treat rare diseases.  RGNX is commercializing gene therapy products administered directly into the body, or in vivo, based on a NAV Technology Platform. Its NAV Technology Platform is currently being applied in the development of 23 product candidates for a variety of diseases, Regenxbio said, with exclusive rights to over 100 patents and patent applications worldwide.

 

 

Monday’s trading indications:

  • Athersys (ATHX) shares have been “playing the field” with lots of big buys and then the usual speculator “nibbles”. Since 9/1 pricing of $1.13and the dramatic volume of (9/16 – 436.6 K and 17 – 4.118 M and 9/18 – 966 K with a “droop” – somethings up, might Chugai be extending the collaboration for a better data read –out? BUY;
  • bluebird bio (BLUE) closed UP +$3.06 and seems to be always a target of “profiteering” related to investors' jitters over the run up since shares had been more than double where they started the year. Three trials are expected to produce data later this year. There will be down days but near term on dips - BUY;
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS) was UP +$0.08 on 59.9 K share volume (3 month average = 297.1 K shares> headed for a fall – SELL;
  • Capricor (CAPR) closed UP +$0.17 with 28.2 K (3 month average = 29.6 K shares)>. Another day of cross-current selling – sends a message, continuous depreciation outweighs the up days. The pattern has seen small volumes and downward pressure since March; there are up days where speculators push and pull but, ultimately the share pricing just marginally “tally” -Maintaining SELL; 
  • Cellectis ADR (CLLS) closed DOWN -$0.45 on 117 K share volume <3 month average = 121.6 K shares> and was DOWN -$0.11 in Friday’s aftermarket; back on the “carousel” – SELL;
  • Intrexon (XON) closed UP +$1.34, having had an appreciative September so far<$41.77 on 9/1>; speculators will “nibble’ – SELL;
  • Organovo (ONVO) closed UP +$0.25 on 7.68 M share <3 month average = 1.674 M shares> is momentum rising. In fiscal 2016, to recognize between $1.2 M and $1.4 M of its $2 M in contract bookings for its exVive3DTM Human Liver Tissue for the period from April 1, 2014 to June 9, 2015. ONVO had already recognized approximately $300 K from these contract bookings in fiscal 2015. However, ONVO had $86 M for its Q1 ended 6/30/15. Forget 3-d printing for now, ONVO's real product, exVive3D Liver is launched and drawing attention allowing drug companies to realize possible liver toxicities before entering expensive clinical trials– BUY;
  • Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed UP +$0.02 to $46.87 as another comparable joined the ranks < Regenxbio (RGNX) – BUY;
  • uniQure (QURE) closed UP+$1.91 on Friday with 1 M shares traded <average 3 month = 272.1 shares> and was UP +$1.34 in the aftermarket. Positive topline results were announced from P1/2 trial in Sanfilippo B Syndrome patients using uniQure's Novel AAV5 based gene therapy – BUY;
  • Vericel (VCEL) closed DOWN -$0.11 to $3.15 – preparing for an offering <??> The burn says yes – VCEL's share pricing has been slowly “dripping” since 9/1. After another very successful raise <RGNX> the capital access window open?  - SELL;

 

I bring a fresh perspective that yields a whole that is greater than the sum of the parts as I convey a spectrum of factors that explain outcomes, analytical principles and analysis.

 

The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.