Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

Higher open expected; RegMed, traders will look at the new week for signs of weakness in the sector

October 5, 2015 6:31am

The past and previous week’s swings are a trademark of a sector caught in a downward spiral than one poised for upside stretch

Monday’s movers and shakers trading forecast; Subscription required: http://www.regmedinvestors.com/user/register

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Stocks mentioned in the pre-open report: Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC), Capricor (CAPR), bluebird bio (BLUE), Caladrius Bioscience (CLBS) and Verastem (VSTM)

DOW futures are UP +0.5 % and NASDAQ futures are UP +$0.06%

U.S. stock index futures pointed to a higher open on Monday ahead Q3 earnings season and key economic data, following the weaker-than-expected jobs report on Friday that cheered markets that a U.S. FED interest rate hike now looks less likely.

European stocks extended gains on Monday, London's FTSE 100 index was 2% higher, the German DAX rose 2.3% while the French CAC saw a 2.9% pop.

Asian equities kicked off the trading week on a positive note while markets in China remain closed until Wednesday for National Day holidays.

Data docket: The ISM non-manufacturing index is due at 10:00 a.m. ET Monday. Investors will also be keeping an eye out for weekly jobless claims and FED minutes on Thursday.

The RegMed sector closed POSITIVE on Friday, NEGATIVE on Thursday, POSITIVE on Wednesday, NEGATIVE on Tuesday and last Monday.

The RegMed sector closed POSITIVE on Friday with 10 decliners, 32 advancers and 1 flat following a NEGATIVE close on Thursday with 26 decliners, 17 advancers and 1 flat.

The irregularity <the upside versus the downside> of the stem, cell and gene therapy RegMed (SCGT & RM) sector is chilling the short term prospects for “our” universe and is striking to the core of the and share pricing probabilities!

A comparison of last week’s closing bell patterns of advance/decline lines:

Monday: 4/38;
Tuesay: 5/34;
Wednesday: 30/11;
Thursday: 17/25;
Friday: 32/10

Compared with the previous week;

Monday: 6/35;
Tuesday: 7/33;
Wednesday: 12/30;
Thursday: 17/23;
Friday: 2/40

Two up days out of the last five sessions <Wednesday and Friday> follow in the previous week’s five down sessions will not guarantee the elimination of flux – what will support any upside trend? Appreciation comes and goes back and forth, so again what will make it stay?

It all relates to a contentious relationship between ETFs, algorithmic programs and speculators dominating the trading ranges versus investors!

Consider our reviews in relation to indexes and indicators to form a balanced outlook and avoid costly and annoying surprises.

“Our” universe will only be driven by stimulus – actionable news and I believe more guidance!

Monday’s trading indications:

Too many sector “participants are just going to linger around current trading ranges until we get Q3 financial results out of the way. Notice I didn’t say - earnings season!

Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed UP +$0.18 to $13.04, very oversold as Biogen (BIIB) closed the recent collaboration at $20.62 – BUY;

Blue bird bio (BLUE) closed UP +4.04 to $94.07. Speculation and trading are “gobbling” its intermittent appreciation – Maintain SELL;

Capricor (CAPR) closed FLAT at $4.21. Do not be captivated by short term volume and price appreciation – it will be sold into. I just can’t let it go – there are “inside” issues in CAPR beyond filing for a $75 M mixed shelf and a pending offering - Maintaining SELL;

Caladrius Bioscience closed DOWN -$0.03 to $1.48. The PCT subsidiary as a stand alone is worth 5 to 8X the current share pricing – BUY;

Verastem (VSTM) closed UP +$0.19 to $1.80 with 1.9 M shares traded. VSTM has $3.58 cash per share, no debt and $132.09 M in cash (6/30/15) and two more cancer drugs in the pipeline and insiders owning 20.52%. Maintaining BUY;

The information included above as well as individual companies and/or securities mentioned should be construed as guidance in RMi reviews.

The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my qualitative analyses and prognoses.

However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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The information included above as well as individual companies and/or securities mentioned should be construed as guidance in RMi reviews.

The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my qualitative analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.