October 8, 2015 7:10pm

 

There’s nothing really new and surprising in the stem, cell and gene therapy RegMed sector. Sentiment is in the dumpster and share pricing has more downside risk and obstacles to overcome – the companies themselves!

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U.S. stocks closed higher Thursday, with the Dow and S&P above key psychological levels, as investors digested the Fed's September meeting minutes. The NASDAQ recovered losses to close higher.

The NASDAQ closed UP +19.64 or +0.41% to 4,810.79 and the DOW closed UP +138.46 or +0.82% to 17,050.75.

 

 

Henry’omics”:

The stem, cell, gene therapy and regenerative medicine (SCGT&RM) sector has produced a lot of winning and losing stocks, and as a group has … not performed extremely well for the past year.

  • Investors have experienced losses more than the 3% to 10% and as much as 20%% in this the market in 2015.

But, does the SCGT&RM sector present a buying prospect or just a short opportunity?

  • With the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) running a relay race and dropping the baton, not once or twice but, many times – it is hard to stay competitive to any finish.

Focusing on my 43 covered “names” that are part of the Biotech Indexes, three issues become apparent.

  • If biotech can recover from the recent prattle i.e. tweets on drug pricing, “our’ universe could well dramatically outperform into December.

As sector “participants” continue to swoon, then the sector has more than a very noticeable leg down to overcome any share pricing depreciation.

  • It is definitely not SCGT&RM a “BUY” or “SELL” situation here as closing FLAT is a badge of merit!

There was a bit of a bias to buy at the open, the stem, cell, gene therapy and regenerative medicine (SCGT&RM). As the session advanced, stock prices just bounced to the downside throughout today’s session!

 

Reiterating, “For months, the SCGT&RM sector has resisted finding a bottom weighing in to depreciation and profiteering, which has divided investors forced to choose between holding their current positions on a hope-enhanced P2 safety and efficacy trials or exiting for early tax loss selling.”

  • The NASDAQ Biotechnology index (NBI) closed DOWN -9.60 or -0.30% on Thursday following Wednesday’s - 123.79 or -3.77%;
  • The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) closed DOWN -0.59 or -0.19% on Thursday following  Wednesday’s advance of +5.88 or +1.95% following Tuesday decline of -11.29 or -3.60% after Monday’s -2.33 or -0.74%;
  • The Russell 2000 (IWM) closed UP +1.03 or +0.90% following Wednesday’s advance of +1.99 or +1.77% after Tuesday’s decline of -0.78 or -0.69% after Monday’s advance of +2.66 or +2.40%;
  • The SPDR SD&P Biotech ETF (XBI) closed DOWN -0.65 or -1.01% after Wednesday’s advance of +1.27 or +2.01% after Tuesday’s decline of -2.81 or -4.21% after Mondays’ advance of +0.56 or +0.79%;
  • The NYSE ARCA Biotech Index (BTK) closed DOWN on Thursday -17.97 or -0.45% following Wednesday’s decline of -17.97 or -0.45% after Tuesday’s plunge of -17.97 or -0.45% - same numbers (?).      

 

 

A day in the life of the stem, cell and gene therapy RegMed (SCGT & RM) sector:

  • SCGT & RM equities opened negative with an A/DL of 17/22 and 4 flats resetting the scoreboard for another negative mid-day A/DL of 16/24 and 3 flats;
  • The 3 pm SCGT & RM equities swung to a neutral stance with an A/DL of 20/20 and 3 flats. The closing bell stayed positive with an A/DL of 22/19 and 2 flats

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded below 18 following Wednesday’s below 20.

 

 

Dosing the sector – 43 Patients:

  • Open: NEGATIVE with 22 decliners, 17 advancers and 4 flats;
  • Mid-day (12:30 pm) NEGATIVE with 24 decliners, 16 advancers and 3 flats;
  • 3 pm: NEUTRAL with 20 decliners, 20 advancers and 3 flats;
  • Closing bell: POSITIVE with 19 decliners, 22 advancers and 2 flats

 

 

Thursday’s trading indications: 5 hit/ 2 miss:

  • BioTime (NYSEMKT: BTX) closed UP – hit;
  • blue bird bio (BLUE) closed DOWN – hit;
  • Capricor (CAPR) closed UP – miss;
  • Fibrocell (FCSC) closed UP +$0.02 – miss;
  • Organovo (ONVO) closed UP – hit;
  • Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed UP – hit;
  • Verastem (VSTM) closed DOWN – “will be gobbled from the upside” – hit;

 

 

Who is UP – highest 5:

  • Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed UP +42.63 to $47.44;
  • Intrexon (XON) +$1.06 to $34.77;
  • Aduro Biotech (ADRO) +$0.51 to $21.74;
  • Asterias (NYSEMKT: AST) +$0.41 to $4.71;
  • Organovo (ONVO) closed UP +$0.35 to $3.16

 

 

Who is down - the lowest 5:

  • bluebird bio (BLUE) closed down -$5.80 to $88.50;
  • Regenxbio (RGNX) -$2.46 to $20.94;
  • Kite Pharma (KITE) -$1.50 to $63.07;
  • Bellicum (BLCM) -$1.19 to $14.26;
  • Cellectis ADR (CLLS) closed down -$0.48 to $26.77;

 

 

Who is flat?

  • Pluristem (PSTI) at $1.78;
  • VistaGen (VSTA) at $9.50

 

 

All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. The information included above as well as individual companies and/or securities mentioned should only construed as an indication from any RMi reviews.

The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.