Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed’s close: I worry as cell and gene therapy scurry for cover

October 10, 2015 9:57am

The week ended on a quiet note with a lot of mixed messaging creating short-term credibility and near-term uncertainty concering share pricing and liquidity. The issue - how easily shares can be sold! Which side is the "Big Lebowski" on, who and where are the kidnapped ... investors?

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U.S. stocks closed higher Friday, wrapping up a solid week of gains, as investors digested indications from the Fed on the timing of a rate hike ahead of earnings season.

The NASDAQ closed UP +19.68 or +0.41% to 4,810.79 and the DOW closed UP +138.46 or +0.82% to 17,050.75.

Henry’omics”:

The stem, cell, gene therapy and regenerative medicine (SCGT&RM) sector has slipped and flipped while the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) ended up 0.4% on Friday.

The three (3) major averages remained within 10% of their 52-week highs, or out of correction territory. The Russell 2000 closed above its 50-day moving average but remained in correction mode, off a touch more than 10 percent from its 52-week high.

The NASDAQ Biotechnology index (NBI) closed UP +18.06 or +0.56% on Friday after Thursday’s decline of -9.60 or -0.30% on Thursday following Wednesday’s - 123.79 or -3.77%;

The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) closed UP +1.25 or +0.41% on Friday after Thursday’s decline of -0.59 or -0.19% following Wednesday’s advance of +5.88 or +1.95% following Tuesday decline of -11.29 or -3.60% after Monday’s -2.33 or -0.74%.

The Russell 2000 (IWM) closed UP +0.23 or +0.20% On Friday after Thursday’s advance of+1.03 or +0.90% following Wednesday’s advance of +1.99 or +1.77% after Tuesday’s decline of -0.78 or -0.69% after Monday’s advance of +2.66 or +2.40%;

The SPDR SD&P Biotech ETF (XBI) closed UP +1.11 or +1.74% on Friday after Thursday’s decline of -0.65 or -1.01% after Wednesday’s advance of +1.27 or +2.01% after Tuesday’s decline of -2.81 or -4.21% after Mondays’ advance of +0.56 or +0.79%;

The NYSE ARCA Biotech Index (BTK) closed DOWN -17.97 or -0.45% on Friday after Thursday’s decline of -17.97 or -0.45% following Wednesday’s decline of -17.97 or -0.45% after Tuesday’s plunge of -17.97 or -0.45% - same numbers (?).

But I still believe that this is an early warning for a “spotty” decline to come in November! Fiancial reults are going to "spill the apple cart"!

A day in the life of the stem, cell and gene therapy RegMed (SCGT & RM) sector:

SCGT & RM equities opened negative with an A/DL of 19/20 and 4 flats resetting the scoreboard for a positive mid-day A/DL of 27/16 and 0 flats;

The 3 pm SCGT & RM equities swung to a negative with an A/DL of 24/18 and 21 flats. The closing bell stayed positive with an A/DL of 25/16 and 2 flats

My best gauge of fear < the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)> in the market, held near 17, down from Thursday’s below 18 following Wednesday’s below 20.

Dosing the sector – 43 Patients:

Open: NEGATIVE with 20 decliners, 19 advancers and 4 flats;

Mid-day (12:30 pm) POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 27 advancers and 0 flat;

3 pm: POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 24 advancers and 1 flat;

Closing bell: POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 25 advancers and 2 flats

Friday’s trading indications: 6 hit/ 2 miss:

Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed UP – hit;
Bellicum Pharma (BLCM) closed UP – hit;
Blue bird bio (BLUE) closed UP – miss;
Capricor (CAPR) closed DOWN – hit;
Caladrius Bioscience (CLBS) closed FLAT- hit;
Cellectis ADR (CLLS) closed DOWN – miss;
Fate Therapeutics (FATE) closed UP – hit;
Verastem (VSTM) closed DOWN – hit;

Who is UP – highest 5:

Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed UP +$1.86 to $49.30;
Intrexon (XON) +$1.24 to $36.01;
Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) +$0.84 to $48.64;
Bellicum (BLCM) +$0.39 to $14.65;
Sangamo (SGMO) closed UP +$0.38 to $5.94

Who is down - the lowest 5:

VistaGen (VSTA) closed down -$1.50 at $8.00;
Regenxbio (RGNX) -$0.41 to $20.53;
Histogenics (HSGX) -$0.31 to $4.40;
Cellectis ADR (CLLS) -$0.16 to $26.61;
ReNeuron (RENE.L) closed down -0.125 to $3.875

Who is flat?

Caladrius Bioscience (CLBS) at $1.38;
Stemline (STML) at $9.68;

All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. The information included above as well as individual companies and/or securities mentioned should only construed as an indication from any RMi reviews.

The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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The information included above as well as individual companies and/or securities mentioned should be construed as guidance in RMi reviews.

The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my qualitative analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.