Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed’s close: Forget doom and gloom, its current sentiment depressing any upside

October 13, 2015 5:03pm

So far, the month of October does not look very favorable for the sector. Once Q3 financial results are announced, the RegMed, cell and gene therapy stocks will find a bottom and only then do I expect a marginally upward trend.

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Stocks started out flat, but sold off throughout the session. The NASDAQ fell 0.9%, giving up its 50-day moving average, the S&P 500 sagged 0.7% and the Dow shed 0.4%. Volume swelled across the board, according to preliminary data vs. Monday's light Columbus Day.

The NASDAQ closed DOWN -42.03 or -0.87% to 4,796.61 and the DOW closed DOWN -49.97 or -0.29% to 17,081.89.

Henry’omics:

The stem, cell, gene therapy and regenerative medicine (SCGT&RM) sector opened to the downside tripping to the upside at 10:30 am then floundered to the downside at the mid-day!

Another day of up, down, round and round; the cell and gene therapy RegMed sector is self-disrupting!

“Our” universe closed NEGATIVE on Monday, POSITIVE on Friday, Thursday and Wednesday, NEGATIVE on Tuesday following a POSITIVE close on last Monday.
What’s another down day; the current rectification appears to be sentiment driven rather than based on some major fundamental shift!

There is uncertainty over where the bottom in the stem, cell and gene therapy stocks is.

The NASDAQ Biotechnology index (NBI) closed DOWN -104.09 or -3.22% following Monday’s advance of +1.99 or +0.06% on Monday;

The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) closed DOWN on Tuesday -9.78 or -3.17% after Monday eked out a gain of 0.03%. The IBB is more than 25% below its 52-week high;

The Russell 2000 (IWM) closed DOWN -1.60 or -1.38% following Monday’s decline of -0.17 or -0.15%;

The SPDR SD&P Biotech ETF (XBI) closed DOWN -2.80 or 4.38% following Monday’s decline of -0.79 or -1.22%;

The NYSE ARCA Biotech Index (BTK) closed DOWN again -19.97 or -0.45% following Monday’s decline of -17.97 or –0.45%;

A day in the life of the stem, cell and gene therapy RegMed (SCGT & RM) sector:

SCGT & RM equities opened negative with an A/DL of 13/27 and 3 flats until the 10:30am hour flipped to a positive mode with an A/DL of 26/17 and o flats floundering to a negative mid-day A/DL of 15/27 and 0 flat;

The closing bell stayed negative with an A/DL of 11/32 and 0 flat.

Volume was low to moderate on many but, high on some price movers!

My fear gauge of fear - the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) traded above 17.5 following Monday’s above 15.

Dosing the sector – 43 Patients:

Open: NEGATIVE with 27 decliners, 13 advancers and 3 flats;

Mid-day (1 pm) NEGATIVE with 27 decliners, 15 advancers and 1 flat;

Closing bell: NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 11 advancers and 0 flat

Tuesday’s trading indications: 1 hit/ 3 miss:

Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed DOWN -$0.40, a strong BUY on dips as Biogen (BIIB) invested at $20.62 – still a miss;
Capricor (CAPR) closed UP +$0.14, with a pending offering? – Still a miss;
Cellectis ADR (CLLS) closed DOWN -$2.41, “someone” has to be “sniffing” around on the depreciation based on past interest and inference –still a miss;
Fibrocell (FCSC) closed DOWN -$0.30 – hit;

Who is UP – highest 5:

Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed up +$0.79 to $48.04;
Capricor (CAPR) +$0.14 to $4.51;
BioTime (NYSEMKT: BTX) +$0.15 to $3.57;
ReNeuron (RENE.L) +$0.12 to $4.00;
Organovo (ONVO) closed up +$0.11 to $3.16

Who is down - the lowest 5:

blue bird bio (BLUE) closed down -$6.06 to $81.08;
Intrexon (XON) -$4.20 to $32.05;
Cellectis ADR (CLLS) -$2.41 to $23.67;
Kite Pharma (KITE) -$2.24 to $59.47;
Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) -$2.11 to $48.57

Who is flat?

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The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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The information included above as well as individual companies and/or securities mentioned should be construed as guidance in RMi reviews.

The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my qualitative analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.