Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed’s close: flip, flop who has a drop of Santa Claus sentiment?

December 21, 2015 6:01pm

The time of year for slippage with many investors “squaring” positions

So, so momentum sets the stage for 2016 … for some! We are still oversold, having to do with end of the year!

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I say what others won't, so you can do what others can't!

U.S. stocks closed higher Monday, recovering slightly from a sharp sell-off last week, as investors eyed oil prices in the shortened holiday week

The NASDAQ closed UP +45.84 or +0.93% to 4,968.92 and the DOW closed UP +123.07 or +0.72% to 17,251.62.

Henry’omics:

The stem, cell and gene therapy RegMed (SCGT&RM) sector opened positive, strayed to the downside in the first half-hour popping positive at the mid-day to close positive (of 43 covered companies).

The stock market's breadth is unusually shallow but. it is that time of year. It could be doing much worse, had it not been for the heavy lifting of some immuno-oncology and selected stocks.

Options expiration left the SCGT&RM sector relatively unscratched as compared to the macro market!

The SCGT&RM) sector's oversold. It's due for a bounce. It’s more of a rotation of tax selling going on underneath the surface because pricing is very narrow,

My fear gauge is STILL ... UP – the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) traded Monday below 19 as compared to ...

· Friday’s above 20;

· Thursday’s near 17.5

· Wednesday’s above 17.5

· Tuesday’s near 20.5 from …

· last Monday’s below 23 after briefly topping 26!

A day in the life of the stem, cell and gene therapy RegMed (SCGT & RM) sector:

The opening bell rang positive with an A/DL of 23/16 and 4 flats staying positive at the mid-day with an A/DL of 24/18 and 1 flat to close positive on Monday’s session with an A/DL of 25/15 and 3 flats.

Monday’s trading response to the morning indications - 5 hits, 2 misses:

bluebird bio (BLUE) closed UP – hit;
Capricor (CAPR) closed UP +$0.17 – but, still under $4.00 – miss;
Kite Pharma (KITE) closed UP – hit;
MiMedx (MDXG) closed DOWN – hit;
Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed UP – hit;
uniQure (QURE) closed UP – hit;
Vericel (VCEL closed UP – increases debt load – still a miss;

Stirred not shaken yet:

Northwest Bio (NWBO) announced the results of its 2015 Annual Shareholder Meeting, held on Friday, 12/18/15.

There were three matters subject to a shareholder vote: the re-election of Linda Powers and Dr. Navid Malik as Directors for 3-year terms, and the re-appointment of the NWBO's auditors, Marcum LLP. NW Bio has a staggered Board, with one or two of the current five Directors up for re-election each year, and with each election being for a 3-year term;

Ms. Powers was re-elected with over 82% of the vote, Dr. Malik was re-elected with over 80% of the vote and Marcum was re-appointed with over 85% of the vote.

Aduro Biotech (ADRO) Initiated a P1 Study of ADU-741 for the Treatment of Prostate Cancer

ADRO’s first patient in the P1 study of ADU-741 (also known as JNJ-64041809), a LADD immunotherapy product candidate for the treatment of prostate cancer, has been dosed. Janssen Biotech, Inc., is Aduro’s license partner for ADU-741. Janssen is conducting the study;

The P1 study will enroll approximately 40 patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer. The initial dose escalation portion of the trial, with two dose levels of ADU-741, will evaluate safety and immunogenicity. The trial will then expand to further characterize safety and preliminary immunological and clinical activity. Additional information may be found at clinicaltrials.gov, using identifier NCT02625857;

ADRO closed UP at $29.65 which was +$0.09

Riding the indexes and ETFs roller-coaster:

The iShares Biotechnology Stocks ETF (IBB) closed UP on Monday +0.64 or +0.19% after

· Friday’s decline of -0.63 or –0.19%;

· Thursday’s decline of -5.28 or -1.56%;

· Wednesday’s advance of +7.41 or +2.25%;

· Tuesday’s +9.15 or +2.85%; following …

· last Monday’s advance of +0.95 or +0.30%;

The NASDAQ Biotechnology index (NBI) closed UP on Monday +26.34 or +0.76% following

· Friday’s decline of -22.40 or -0.65%;

· Thursday’s -59.21 or -1,68%;

· Wednesday’s +79.79 or +2.31%;

· Tuesday’s +95.02 or +2.83 %;

· last Monday’s advance of +8.30 or +0.25%;

The Russell 2000 (IWM) closed UP on Monday +0.84 or +0.75% after

· Friday’s decline of -1.73 or -1.53% ;

· Thursday’s decline of -1.22 or -1.07%;

· Wednesday’s advance of +1.72 or +1.53% ;

· Tuesday’s advance of +1.60 or +1.44% following …

· last Monday’s decline of -0.80 or -0.71%;

The SPDR SD&P Biotech ETF (XBI) closed UP on Monday +0.80 or +1.16% after …

· Friday’s advance of +0.38 or +0.55% after

· Thursday’s decline of -0.85 or -1.22%;

· Wednesday’s advance of +2.93 or +4.39%;

· Tuesday’s advance of +1.86 or +2.86% following …

· last Monday’s decline of -0.73 or -1.11%

Dosing the sector – what a day for the 43 Patients:

Opening bell: POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 23 advancers and 4 flats;

1^st half-hour: NEGATIVE with 22 decliners, 17 advancers and 4 flats;

Mid-day: POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 24 advancers and 1 flat;

Closing bell: POSITIVE with 15 decliners, 25 advancers and 3 flats

Who was UP – top 5:

bluebird bio (BLUE) closed UP +$3.12 to $64.57;
Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) +$1.53 to $19.47;
uniQure (QURE) +$1.09 to $17.09;
Osiris (OSIR) +$0.62 to $10.83 – new CFO needed;
Spark therapeutics (ONCE) +$0.56 to $44.69 – post offering;

Who closed down – top 5:

Sangamo (SGMO) closed down -$0.32 to $9.31;
MiMedx (MDXG) -$0.19 to $9.35;
Asterias (NYSEMKT: AST) -$0.16 to $4.22;
Mesoblast (MESO) -$0.13 to $6.06;
Fate Therapeutics (FATE) closed down -$0.08 to $3.47

Flat:

Opexa (OPXA) at $3.02;
ReNeuron (RENE.L) at $2.875;
Ocata Therapeutics (OCAT) at $8.49;

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

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Insight, foresight and recommendation

My motto … never leave an investor uninformed! I say today what others won’t, so you can do what others can’t.

My name is Henry McCusker; I endorse these opinions under my own name and with a subscription based membership.

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my qualitative analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.