Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed’s close: up, up and almost away

March 4, 2016 5:57pm

Playing catch-up from being undervalued to oversold to a could be overbought..

Ranking Friday’s end-of-day pre-open trading indications – 3 hits and 2 misses.

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Investors suffer from the paradox of information overload. If you have a smartphone in your pocket, you can access more information about the financial markets than the world's top hedge funds did 20 years ago. Yet, I bet your investment returns have not improved one iota as a result.

· But, who is interpreting that information … get it here!

U.S. stocks closed higher for the fourth straight day Friday as data showed jobs growth in February was stronger than economists’ expected. The S&P 500 gained, the Dow rose, while the NASDAQ gained. All three indexes have logged three straight weekly gains.

The NASDAQ closed UP +9.60 or +0.20% to 4,717.02 and the DOW closed UP +62.87 or +0.37% to 17,006.77.

A day in the life of the stem, cell and gene therapy RegMed (SCGT & RM) sector – the advance/decline line scenario of our 43 covered companies.

Friday, the stem, cell and gene therapy RegMed sector opened negative with an A/DL of 21/16 and 6 flats;

The mid-day stayed negative with an A/DL of 32/9 and 2 flats;

The closing bell rang positive with A/DL of 24/16 and 3 flats

Henry’omics:

The stem, cell and gene therapy RegMed (SCGT&RM) sector opened positive, stayed positive at the mid-day and closed positive (of 43 covered companies).

I think (the jobs data) was generally sympathetic to the SCGT&RM stocks. But, it certainly wasn't the only catalyst for a single-day move. The question is what was the other promoter (?) giver that we still have a … while to go with more Q4/15 results?

Moving averages tells me vey little when a trend will begin or end while advance/decline lines, daily open and closing patterns, fundamentals however, lately technicals provide a view of murky expectations.

Moving averages, quite simply, tell you about probabilities that favor higher or lower volatility regimes. They are not trend indicators. They are risk indicators.

My pet peeve:

High-frequency trading accounted for 49% of February's daily trading volume of about 8.67 billion shares <according to TABB Group>.

Friday’s handicapping the sector pre-open indications – 3 hits and 2 miss:

Cellectis ADR (CLLS) closed DOWN – hit;
Fate Therapeutics (FATE) closed UP – hit;
Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) closed UP – miss;
Intrexon (XON) closed DOWN – hit;
Stemline (STML) closed UP – miss;

Out and about;

Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC)

… is again slipping down -$0.33 to $14.13 after ending down yesterday -$0.10 after many question pricing sustainability after Wednesday’s $14.56, Tuesday’s $13.97 and Monday’s 13.27 after last Friday’s $14.21. AGTC looks good with solid earnings, but the retail outlook is dismal compared to the firm’s prospects in both the short and near-term.

BioTime (NYSEMKT: BTX +$0.16) and its subsidiary Asterias Biotherapeutics (NYSEMKT: AST +$0.05)

…are both up. I will be waiting for financial results to come out and as they switch board members for CEOs and the reverses.

Bellicum Pharma (BLCM)

… Jumped up again +$0.08 to $10.62 after yesterday’s +$0.08 post Wednesday’s +$0.76 after advancing Tuesday’s +$0.67. It’s moving incrementally which is certainly needed to retrace its most recent pricing history – 1/4/16 the stock was $19.00, a way to go;

BioLife Solutions (BLFS)

… Closed down -$0.06 to $1.76. BLFS has been sloppy in its trading pattern as its CFO resigned effective immediately this week – somethings up? With just $3.8 M left in the till – it is questionable? It’s also a bit away from 1/4/16’s $2.05, 12/1/15’s $2.23 and 11/2/15’s $2.28

Bluebird bio (BLUE)

… Closed UP +$0.63 to $54.50 in a counter-trend trade as it sets-up for another slip after a week of $53.87, $53.86, $50.51 and Monday’s $46.22. The short position is back trending higher

Capricor (CAPR)

.. Jumped back and forth, ending +$0.07 to $2.32 after yesterday’s +$0.06 post Wednesday’s +$0.10 from Tuesdays -$0.35. Investors and traders SHOULD be getting smarter (?) as CAPR has just about ten (10) months of cash and the offering window is barely open. CAPR needs a financing – be READY whether they get another CIRM grant/loan of $3.38 M to fund its Phase I/II HOPE-Duchenne clinical trial investigating CAP-1002 for the treatment of Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy-related cardiomyopathy.

Cesca Therapeutics (KOOL) is DOWN another -$0.014 to a whole some $0.202 after yesterdays -$0.0288 as it executed a reverse splits stock 1:20 …

… To regain compliance with NASDAQ listing requirements, this will be effective at 5:00 pm, March 4. Post-split shares will begin trading on Monday morning; 3/7/16.

Harvard Apparatus RT (HART)

… Stock is again feeling the uplift on Friday +$0.04 to $1.61 after yesterday’s +$0.19 post Wednesday’s +$0.06> following news of Laura Mondano joining the company as Vice President of Regulatory Affairs, a new position at HART to initiate an IND on their first product <of three>.

Juno Therapeutics (JUNO +$3.04) and Kite Pharma (KITE +$2.70)

… Are both feeling the upside of appreciation? JUNO’s cash position of $1.22 Billion blows away many in the sector, no problems with a “runway” here while KITE’s cash position yesterday was reported to be $614.7 M – another “runway” positive!

MiMedx (MDXG +$0.17) and Osiris (OSIR -$0.11)

… are back playing the yang versus the yin of share pricing

Mesoblast (MESO) traded lower$0.15 to $9.25 after yesterdays -$0.12 to $9.40

… After the weeks $9.52, $7.84 and Monday’s $6.54 hanging in there as all is better than last Friday’s $6.06.

Opexa (OPXA) closed down again -$0.04 to $2.00 after yesterdays -$0.25

… After Wednesday’s drop of -$0.06 when it “axed” 30% of its workforce to extend “runway” into Q1/17 including their CFO as the CEO now also absorbs her responsibilities – even if he was the previous CFO – the roles NEEDS to be separate!

Spark Therapeutic (ONCE) closed UP +$0.35 to $34.53.

... Closed UP after a diffident week...

Dosing the sector – what a day for the 43 Patients:

The market opened: POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 21 advancers and 6 flat;

The mid-day (12:30 pm: POSITIVE with 9 decliners, 32 advancers and 2 flats;

Closing bell: POSITIVE with 24 decliners, 16 advancers and 3 flats

Review my fear gauge or the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) which is scary:

· Friday traded at 16.5;

· Thursday traded below 17;

· Wednesday traded near 17, another decrease;

· Tuesday traded near 18 – 10% decrease;

· Monday traded below 20;

· Last, Friday traded near 19.8;

Riding the indexes and ETFs roller-coaster:

The iShares Biotechnology Stocks ETF (IBB) closed DOWN on Friday -1.11 or -0.42%

· Thursday -3.88 or -1.45%

· Wednesday +2.85 or +1.07%

· Tuesday +11.18 or +4.40%

· Monday -7.40 or -2.83%

The NASDAQ Biotechnology index (NBI) closed DOWN on Friday -9.39 or -0.34

· Thursday -39.41 or -1.41%

· Wednesday +28.75 or +1.04%

· Tuesday +114.28 or +4.30%

· Monday -73.30 or -2.68%

The Russell 2000 (IWM) closed UP on Friday +0.59 or +0.55%

· Thursday +1.11 or +1.05%

· Wednesday +1.08 or +1.03%

· Tuesday +2.21 or +2.15%

· Monday -0.46 or -0.45%

The SPDR SD&P Biotech ETF (XBI) closed UP on Friday +0.24 or +0.46%

· Thursday -0.58 or -1.11%

· Wednesday +2.09 or +4.16%

· Tuesday +2.31 or +4.82%

· Monday -1.50 or -3.04%

Who was leading the declines – to of the bottom 5?

uniQure (QURE) closed down -$0.58 to $14.02;
Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) -$0.33 to $14.13;
Intrexon (XON) -$0.25 to $37.03;
AxoGen (AXGN) -$0.20 to $5.11;
Mesoblast (MESO) closed down -$0.15 to $9.25

Who was UP – top 5:

Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) closed up +$3.94 to $43.75;
Kite Pharma (KITE) +$2.70 to $54.44;
Bluebird bio (BLUE) +$0.63 to $54.50;
Spark therapeutics (ONCE) +$0.35 to $34.53;
Regenxbio (RGNX) closed up +$0.31 to $13.08

Who was FLAT?

Athersys (ATHX) at $1.78;
ReNeuron (RENE.L) at $2.875;
VistaGen (VSTA) at $8.00

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.