Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

Lower open expected; RegMed sector, weak patterns evolve that focus outcomes

March 7, 2016 6:31am

While moving averages do very little to tell us when a trend will begin, they are risk indicators

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I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't; whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between – it defines the who, when, where, which and what of it …

Dow futures are DOWN 0.32% and NASDAQ futures are also DOWN -0.54%

U.S. stocks were setting up for a weaker start on Monday as investors appeared hesitant to take the market higher after the third straight weekly rise for equities.

European markets traded lower Monday despite last Friday's solid U.S. jobs report as investors digest the latest economic targets from China and focus on the European Central Bank's (ECB) next meeting this week.

Asia markets end mixed as Japan's shares slid even as markets in Australia, South Korea and China gained on Monday as traders digested Friday's better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll and China's new economic targets announced at the National People's Congress (NPC) over the weekend.

Data docket: It should be a very quiet week for U.S. economic news, with just January consumer credit figures on Monday at 3:00 p.m. ET and wholesale inventory data Wednesday the only data releases of note in the first half of the week.

The stem, cell and gene therapy RegMed sector closed POSITIVE on Friday, NEGATIVE on Thursday, POSITIVE on Wednesday and Tuesday and NEGATIVE on last Monday.

Past five (5) days (of 43 covered companies):

· Friday closed POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 24 advancers and 3 flat

· Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 18 advancers and 2 flats;

· Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 6 decliners, 35 advancers and 2 flats;

· Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 14 decliners, 26 advances and 3 flats

· Last, Monday closed NEGATIVE with 24 decliners, 16 advancers and 2 flats;

The stem, cell and gene therapy regenerative medicine (SCGT&RM) opened up and stayed positive on Friday!

What concerned me on Friday was the close of the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) which was down - 1.11 or -0.42% and its after-market indication of -0.47 or -0.18% as well as the NASDAQ Biotechnology (NBI) being down -9.39 or -0.34%!

The runway is open but, with strong headwind winds!

Watch the windsock of who, what and which equities open up and down and whether they can stay positive through-out the day !

Moving averages, quite simply, tell you about probabilities that favor higher or lower volatility regimes. They are not trend indicators. They are risk indicators.

With the gradations of sentiment being expressed by the carousel of sector pricing i.e. alternating up and down; one must ask if conviction is actually a moving target about what the future holds.

You’ve made it to the office, turned on the monitor having just gotten your coffee and it hits you - what could be Monday’s trades?

Athersys (ATHX) closed FLAT at $1.78 on big volume - 989.3 K volume <3 month average = 748.5 K shares> - fight buys versus sells as it started the week at <Monday> $1.87. Remember the share price in the month of February at $1.22. The closer we get to Thursday’s <3/10/16> Q4/15 financial release will define the share price of the next month based on ATM usage to offset operating expense which effects the cash position and runway going forward. Also the short position has been rising - SELL;

Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) closed UP +$3.04 to $43.75 after Thursday’s -$2.03 and has an after-market indication of +$0.08. It has been a good week post the financial results even though it’s still feeling a bit overbought, one can’t argue with momentum – SELL to BUY;

Kite Pharma (KITE) closed UP at $2.70 to $54.44 with an after-market indication <Friday’s close> of +$0.28. Another scenario where one can’t argue with momentum – BUY;

Intrexon (XON) closed DOWN -$0.25 to $37.03 after being up +$0.26 after Thursday’s +$3.29 after being up +$2.78 and then down -$2.81. It’s still about the curse of the upside and traders selling into any strength. Speculators could be “nibbling” the edges of recent appreciation – Maintaining BUY;

Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed UP +$0.35 to $34.53. Financial results for Q4/15 are being announced at 8:30 am on 3/9/16. I haven’t perceived any pre earnings “jitters” so something “may” be up? – HOLD;

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

35 companies, 1 interpreter!

Insight, foresight and recommendation

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.