March 9, 2016 6:34am

 

Check your didgets and count investor sentiment …

 

If timed perfectly, a buy at the bottom of a down draft can be rewarding! 

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I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't; whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between – it defines the who, when, where, which and what of it …

 

 

Dow futures are UP +0.39% and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.4 %

 

 

U.S. stock index futures pointed to a higher open on Wednesday after oil prices recovered from the selling seen on Tuesday, as investors start to turn their focus to Thursday's European Central Bank meeting.

European equities traded slightly higher, shrugging off the weakness in Asian stocks and a decline in oil prices.

Asian markets were mixed with China shares dropping, as analysts pointed to renewed investor concerns over the mainland's economy following lower-than-expected trade data for February.

 

Data docket: include wholesale trade at 10 a.m. ET, and U.S. government oil inventories at 10:30 a.m. The Treasury holds a 10-year note auction at 1 p.m.ET.

 

 

The stem, cell and gene therapy RegMed sector closed NEGATIVE on Tuesday, POSITIVE on Monday and Friday, NEGATIVE on Thursday and POSITIVE on last Wednesday.

 

Past five (5) days (of 43 covered companies):

·         Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 9 advancers and 2 flats;

·         Monday closed POSITIVE with 12 advancers, 31 advancers and 1 flat;

·         Friday closed POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 24 advancers and 3 flat

·         Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 18 advancers and 2 flats;

·         Last, Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 6 decliners, 35 advancers and 2 flats;

 

 

The stem, cell and gene therapy regenerative medicine (SCGT&RM) sector opened down and closed negative on Tuesday!

  • Keeping last night’s hat on …”I attributed some of the sharp drop … to a news vacuum this week. Q4/15 financial results/earnings are also not yet completed!”

I believe … “So-called technical resistance was behind Tuesday’s downdraft as sector unrest plays … to the pattern of the previous week …”

  • Obviously, traders operate with competing leverage; since “our’ universe is made-up of micro to small to mid-cap companies; weakness weighs the indexes!

I do not believe in setting any price targets as in reality they are an exercise in futility, but I do believe that “our’ universe should move higher even though sometimes resistance levels forces pricing to go lower.

 

 

You’ve made it to the office, turned on the monitor having just gotten your coffee and it hits you - what could be Wednesday’s trades?

  • Aduro Biotech (ADRO) closed DOWN -$1.56 to $15.04. ADRO reported Q4/15 net income of $3.1 M or +$0.04 per share, after reporting a loss in Q4/14. The results beat analyst expectations. The average estimate was for a loss of $0.14 cents per share. ADRO posted revenue of $34.4 M, also beating “street” forecasts having expected $17.6 M. For FY15, ADRO reported profit of $39.2 M, or $0.88 cents per share while revenue was reported as $73 M – rings the bell for me. Aduro Biotech’s shares have fallen 47% since the beginning of 2016. The after-market indication was +$1.96 - BUY;
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed DOWN -$0.77 to $13.99. Stephen Potter, Chief Business Officer, will be speaking on a panel entitled “Managing Shareholder Expectations while Focusing on Growth” today, March 9th at 3:45pm EST – a sincere and believable speaker who by his demeanor and background inspires – I’d take the bet.  In the past fifteen (15) sessions AGTC has “hit” the $13.94 to $13.99 four (4) times <since 2/16> - a bottom? – BUY;
  • bluebird bio (BLUE) closed DOWN -$6.12 to $49.00 after yesterday’s +$0.62.  BLUE has traded this low as recently as last Tuesday. Then shares had traded up for a few days in anticipation of the release of abstracts at American Academy of Neurology.  Investors seemed to like the limited data in the abstract for BLUE’s P2/3 Starbeam study testing its Lenti-D gene therapy for the treatment of cerebral adrenoleukodystrophy. The clinical trial won't finish until patients have been followed for two years after treatment,  the interim data showed no major functional disabilities -- the primary endpoint of the study -- in the 12 patients that have been followed for at least six months since they were treated with the Lenti-D gene therapy. After the mixed weeks of share pricing in February and the five (5) sessions of March, the range of the upside flanks the downside. So, I am back to making a bet, it’s still the big casino. The after-market indication is +$0.46 –SELL to BUY;
  • Capricor (CAPR) closed DOWN -$0.14 to $2.10. CAPR has been recommended for a grant award in the amount of approximately $3.38 M to fund its P1/2 HOPE clinical trial investigating CAP-1002 for the treatment of Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy-related cardiomyopathy. The award is subject to final approval being given by the Application Review Subcommittee of the Independent Citizens' Oversight Committee of CIRM and the satisfaction of other conditions. The terms of the award and the disbursement schedule have not yet been determined. The question will be - will the CIRM take a chance on a company that is running out of money by year’s end, CIRM has a fiduciary responsibility to its bond holders– SELL;
  • StemCells (STEM) closed FLAT at $0.375. STEM intends to offer and sell common stock, Series A Warrants and Series B Warrants, subject to a 20% discount in a public offering?   How many times can the company go to the well with Maxim Group after their previous CEO left with a $1 M payday gift to leave?  Will this be a $0.20 offering price; maybe STEM should be willing to pay investors to buy into this financing - SELL

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.