March 11, 2016 6:31am

 

Too many catalysts are in the future and clinical data often faces particular issues with interpreting the complexities of the study

 

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I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't; whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between – it defines the who, when, where, which and what of it …

 

 

Dow futures are UP +0.9% and NASDAQ futures are UP +1.2%

 

U.S. stock index futures pointed to a sharply higher open, as markets started to digest the aggressive easing measures announced by the European Central Bank (ECB).

European equities rallied, with the pan European STOXX 600 up 1.7% in early trade. Banking stocks led the way, with Italian banks all up in the region of 6%, and German and French lenders not far behind.

Asian markets reversed early losses to finish mostly higher on Friday, as traders digested fresh easing from the European Central Bank (ECB) overnight.

 

Data docket: February import and export price indices due for release at 8:30 a.m. ET and earnings from The Buckle before market open.

 

 

The stem, cell and gene therapy RegMed sector closed NEGATIVE on Thursday, POSITIVE on Wednesday, NEGATIVE on Tuesday, POSITIVE on Monday and last Friday.

 

Last five (5) days (of 43 covered companies):

·         Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 27 decliners, 15 advancers and 1 flat;

·         Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 19 decliners, 23 advancers and 1 flat;

·         Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 9 advancers and 2 flats;

·         Monday closed POSITIVE with 12 advancers, 31 advancers and 1 flat;

·         Last, Friday closed POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 24 advancers and 3 flat

 

 

The stem, cell and gene therapy regenerative medicine (SCGT&RM) sector opened up, slipped to the downside at the mid-day and closed negative on Thursday!

  • Keeping last night’s hat on … “My indicators combine fundaments <which have been dubious>, earnings or LPS <loss per share> trends, relative valuations and debt <ATM usage> levels while technicals include price momentum, advance/decline trends, new highs minus new lows, and money flows.”

As to prediction or pattern tools, even I get confused – some days just as investors do!

 

 

You’ve made it to the office, turned on the monitor having just gotten your coffee and it hits you - what could be Friday’s trades?

 

Friday should be a good day for … trading, as markets will be up however, the risk-return relationship has deteriorated with investors no longer being compensated for the true risk – the expectation is too shallow and ripe to be manipulated – even when the sector is up!

 

  • Athersys (ATHX) closed DOWN -$0.02 to $1.83. For all those “Doubting -Thomas”, including me – ATHX recognized net income for Q4/15 of $3.6 M, compared to net loss of $6.6 M for Q4/14.  The $10.2 M net variance includes the impact of the $10 M Chugai license fee, the $400 K increase in grant revenues, the $300 K decrease in research and development expenses, the $200 K increase in general and administrative costs, and an increase in net other expenses. The after-market indication is +$0.06 - SELL to BUY;
  • Vericel (VCEL) closed UP +$1.83 to $3.95. The market value of VCEL that bought the cell therapy business from Sanofi Genzyme two years ago doubled yesterday after a mid-stage trial of a treatment for heart failure hit its goals. With such a rapid appreciation, speculators will take profits with an after-market indication is -$0.05. VCEL should focus on their revenue directed "acquired" programs from Sanofi as the therapeutic trial continuation will drain the cash "pool"– HOLD to SELL;
  • uniQure (QURE) closed UP +$0.24 to $13.06. QURE has been flitting for months in the $15.81 range (1/4/16) to $18.06 (2/1/16) to $14.71 (3/1/16) having hit a new low of $12.82 (on 3/9/16). The old adage, a rising tide lifts all boats, but no matter which way the market is moving, there are stocks that will always go their own way. Here is one worth watching regardless of market trends – BUY

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.