March 14, 2016 5:51pm

 

… Depending on trading <the ladder> instead of investing <the spade> …

 

It is a good thing to follow the first law of holes; if you are in one, stop digging. Ranking Monday’s end-of-day pre-open trading indications – 3 hits and 3 misses.

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There is one thing that everyone needs, and that's interpretation and translation of intelligence, not just news or information - we get too much!

  • To that end, I report a matrix of variables designed for investor’s consideration concerning the stem, cell and gene therapy regenerative medicine portfolio to track and monitor its pricing metric;

The takeaway is that investor need to decide what actions to take, or not take, based on their specific situation.

 

 

U.S. stocks closed mixed in low volume trade Monday, mostly shaking off a decline in oil prices ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting later in the week.

The NASDAQ closed UP +1.81 or +0.04% to 4,750.28 and the DOW closed +15.82 or +0.09% to 17,229.13.

 

 

A day in the life of the stem, cell and gene therapy RegMed (SCGT & RM) sector – the advance/decline line scenario of our 43 covered companies.

  • Monday, the stem, cell and gene therapy RegMed sector opened positive with an A/DL of 26/14 and 3 flats;
  •  The mid-day stayed positive with an A/DL of 31/11 and 1 flat;
  •  The closing bell rang negative with A/DL of 23/18 and 2 flat

 

 

Henry’omics:

The stem, cell and gene therapy regenerative medicine (SCGT&RM) sector opened positive , stayed positive at the mid-day  and closed positive (of 43 covered companies).

  • If the market begins the week in the green, it is a good sign for the strength. Yet, I hope for a sustaining version in the pattern;

Assuming the SCGT&RM sector can climb beyond the first or second day of the week, I would then expect a pullback!

  • It is the reoccurring battle of the overbought versus the oversold …

For now, I remain cautiously optimistic – laugh here, while recognizing the implications of negative price action coming in the upcoming week.

  • So, as I noted to my fellow contrarians … start now in taking risk off the table as patience is a virtue with an ability to wait for something without allowing “our” universe to prove its overbought status.

I am also not usually surprised by the dark spirits of being oversold!

 

 

Interesting quant view of the day:

  • As of the close, trade volume across the exchanges was just above 6 billion, on pace for the lowest trade volume day of the year so far.

 

 

Earnings update:

 

 

Out and about:

Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS), the former NeoStem (NBS) sold 19.9% of its subsidiary – Progenitor Cell Therapy (PCT) to Hitachi Chemical (HCHMY) for $19.4 M. I find it ludicrous that it further typifies the agreement as a licensing, development and equity components.

  • First remark: It is kind of like putting a band aid on a scraped finger when femoral artery is severed;
  • Second observation, it prices PCT at $100 M (?) which means CLBS programs have negative equity value;
  • Third opinion, the Japanese paid $5.6 M – the life line as an upfront payment for near term milestones, who is kidding whom?
  • Fourth reflection, the shares appreciated +$0.12 to $0.95 on the news – barely enough to reset the NASDAQ delisting clock …
  • The Bottom Line:  Expect more share pricing resentment <lessening appreciation> especially as financial results are due – which will truly define their spending patterns and executive excess <the new HQ in Basking Ridge, NJ, so the year old CEO didn’t have to leave his <previous companies> office;
  • It is too bad, this BOD doesn’t have the guts <their so inbred> to part ways with this CEO, who I consider a “destructor of value”. Clarification, when CEO Mazzo assumed the CEO role – the stock was trading at $3.75;

Count these apples … rotting in the basket!

 

 

Monday’s handicapping the sector pre-open indications – 3 hits and 3 miss: 

  • bluebird bio (BLUE) closed UP +$0.08 – miss;
  • Capricor (CAPR) closed UP +$0.03 – miss;
  • Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) closed UP +$0.17 – hit;
  • Vericel (VCEL) closed DOWN -$0.20 – hit;
  • Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed UP +$0.38 – hit;
  • Intrexon (XON) closed DOWN -$0.55 – miss;

 

 

Dosing the sector – what a day for the 43 Patients:

  • The market opened: POSITIVE with 14 decliners, 26 advancers and 3 flats;
  • The mid-day (12:30 pm: POSITIVE with 11 decliners, 31 advancers and 1 flat;
  • Closing bell: POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 23 advancers and 2 flats

 

 

Review my fear gauge or the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) which is scary:

·         Monday traded below 17;

·         Friday traded below 17;

·         Thursday traded above 19;

·         Wednesday traded near 18.5;

·         Tuesday traded near 18.5;

·         Last, Monday traded near 17.5;

 

Riding the indexes and ETFs roller-coaster:

The iShares Biotechnology Stocks ETF (IBB) closed DOWN on Monday -0.50 or -0.19%

·         Friday closed up +6.86 or +2.69%;

·         Thursday -1.62 or -0.63%

·         Wednesday -3.00 or -1.15%

·         Tuesday -9.63 or -3.57%

·         Last, Monday +6.63 or +2.52%

The NASDAQ Biotechnology index (NBI) closed DOWN on Monday -5.54 or -0.20%

·         Friday closed up +71.65 or +2.69%

·         Thursday -21.07 or -0.78%

·         Wednesday –31.50 or -1.16%

·         Tuesday -100.90 or -3.58%

·         Last, Monday +66.97 or +2.43%

The Russell 2000 (IWM) closed DOWN on Monday -0.28 or -0.26%

·         Friday closed UP +2.27 or +2.14%;

·         Thursday -0.87 or -0.81%

·         Wednesday +0.54 or +0.51%

·         Tuesday -2.61 or -2.40%

·         Last, Monday +1.17 or +1.09%

The SPDR SD&P Biotech ETF (XBI) closed UP on Monday +0.59 or +1.15%

·         Friday closed up +1.66 or +3.34%

·         Thursday -0.87 or -1.72%

·         Wednesday -0.47 or -0.92%

·         Tuesday -2.83 or -5.26%

·         Last, Monday +1.86 or +3.58%

 

 

Who was leading the declines – to of the bottom 5?

  • Kite Pharma (KITE) closed down -$1.73 to $48.89;
  • Intrexon (XON) -$0.55 to $37.42;
  • Vericel (VCEL) -$0.20 to $4.13;
  • Asterias (NYSEMKT: AST) -$0.14 to $5.16;
  • uniQure (QURE) closed down -$0.09 to $13.13

 

 

Who was UP – top 5:

  • Aduro Biotech (ADRO) closed up +$0.47 to $14.36;
  • Bellicum (BLCM) +$0.41 to $10.03;
  • Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) +$0.38 to $34.20;
  • Cellectis ADR (CLLS) +40.38 to $25.27;
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L ) closed up +$0.275 to $3.275

 

 

Who was FLAT?

  • Organovo (ONVO) at $2.34;
  • VistaGen (VSTA) at $8.00;

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.