March 15, 2016 6:37am

 

Some event inevitably follows another without any argument for the inevitability of the event

 

My analysis is that something will happen or be the case in the future.

 

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I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't; whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between – it defines the who, when, where, which and what of it …

 

 

Dow futures are DOWN -0.4% and NASDAQ futures are also DOWN -0.5%

 

Stock futures indicate a lower start as investors begin to grow nervous as they wait for the outcome of a Fed meeting and as crude prices continue to retrench.

European equities were trading lower with basic resources the worst performing sector.

Most Asian markets lost ground tracking U.S. equities' weak performance overnight, with some analysts saying traders are turning more cautious after the recent rally.

 

Data docket: A heavy load of economic data is coming Tuesday, featuring retail sales at 8:30 a.m. ET. Retail sales are forecast to turn negative, forecasting a 0.2% fall in headline prices for February from a 0.2% rise in January.  Producer prices for February are scheduled for release at the same time, along with the Empire state manufacturing index for March, which offers a gauge of business conditions in the New York region. Then at 10 a.m. ET, a home builder’s index for March and business inventories for January are due.

The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting kicks off Tuesday, with a policy decision due Wednesday, along with a news conference by Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen.

 

 

The stem, cell and gene therapy RegMed sector closed POSITIVE on Monday and Friday, NEGATIVE on Thursday, POSITIVE on Wednesday, NEGATIVE on last Tuesday.

 

Last five (5) days (of 43 covered companies):

·         Monday closed POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 23 advancers and 2 flats;

·         Friday closed POSITIVE with 7 decliners, 34 advancers and 2 flats;

·         Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 27 decliners, 15 advancers and 1 flat;

·         Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 19 decliners, 23 advancers and 1 flat;

·         Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 9 advancers and 2 flats;

·         Last, Monday closed POSITIVE with 12 advancers, 31 advancers and 1 flat;

 

 

The stem, cell and gene therapy regenerative medicine (SCGT&RM) sector opened up, stayed positive at the mid-day and closed positive on Monday!

  • Keeping Monday’s hat on … “Assuming the SCGT&RM sector can climb beyond the first or second day of the week, I would then expect a pullback!”

I reference to the title, Tuesday will be a major day politically but, the outcome will have minimal market impact. Investors have far more on their plate to deal with in the short-term.

 

 

You’ve made it to the office, turned on the monitor having just gotten your coffee and it hits you - what could be Tuesday’s trades?

 

The recent “run-up” becomes suspect as news is slow and financial results/earnings continue with many afraid of reporting consequences of those who haven’t reported Q4/15 who could be caught with pre call and post reporting jitters.  A few companies are highlighted:

 

  • Bellicum Pharma (BLCM) closed UP +$0.41 to $10.03. BLCM ended the year on December 31, 2015 with cash and investments totaling $150.4 M. License fees were $3 M and $3.2 M for Q4/15 and FY15 compared to no license fees in 2014. The increase in fees was primarily due to a new license agreement with Agensys, an affiliate of Astellas – SELL;
  • Capricor (CAPR) closed UP +$0.04 to $2.20 after Friday’s +$0.06.  Financial results/earnings conference call is Thursday, 3/17/16 at 4:30 pm – do achievements correlate to the current spending patterns? The question is can CAPR’s cash position and “runway” side-step the lack of capital market access while it is also in the running for an $3.38 M from the CIRM. California bond holders must have a concern in a pending grant!  The award is subject to final approval being given by the Application Review Subcommittee of the Independent Citizens' Oversight Committee of CIRM and the satisfaction of other conditions. Pre- Q4/15 result’s patterns project a depreciating share price – Maintaining SELL;
  • Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) closed UP +$0.17 to $40.17 after Friday’s +$0.91. The after-market indication is -$0.24. I believe investors and traders are chasing an upside – it might work for a day or two but, on the whole, it doesn’t work – BUY to SELL;
  • Vericel (VCEL) closed DOWN -$0.20 to $4.13 after Friday’s +$0.38 to $4.33 following Thursday’s upside of +$1.83. The after-market indication is -$0.02. Another, I believe investors and traders are chasing an upside – it might work for a day or two but, on the whole, it doesn’t work – Maintaining SELL;
  • Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed UP +$0.38 to $34.20 after Friday’s $1.94. The run-up scares me as traders are always ready to profiteer with market possible causation events on the horizon – BUY to SELL;

 

We can never know if a whole series of events and/or a certain result is determined to follow one event or action in particular. But, fear in this sector and market seems to cause a domino effect.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.