March 21, 2016 6:41am

 

Monday’s ten (10) pre-open indications.

 

Don’t you want to know what you should sell?

There’s a method for digging into this highly speculative sector of stocks.

 

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Financial results/earnings have been the up and down drivers of stock pricing, thankfully past Q4/14 conference releases are about to finish, now companies must adapt share price protectionism to achieve share driving appreciation

 

 

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't; whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between – it defines the who, when, where, which and what of it …

 

Dow futures are UP +0.15 and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.16 %

 

U.S. stock index futures indicated a slightly higher open on Monday as investors focused on the price of oil and monitored comments by Federal Reserve members. Markets will only be open for four days this week ahead of the Good Friday holiday.

European shares reversed losses to trade higher on Monday as the oil price came off its session lows.

Chinese markets stood out in a mixed trading session in Asia , with many market watchers predicting a quiet week ahead in the absence of major economic data from the U.S. and China, and with many markets off for Good Friday.

 

Data docket: the Chicago Fed national activity index is due at 8:30 a.m. ET and existing home sales are due at 10 a.m. ET.

 

 

The stem, cell and gene therapy RegMed sector closed POSITIVE on Friday and Thursday, NEGATIVE on Wednesday and Tuesday, POSITIVE on last Monday.

 

Last five (5) days (of 43 covered companies):

·         Friday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 22 advancers and 4 flats;

·         Thursday closed POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 21 advancers and 4 flats;

·         Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 19 advancers and 1 flat;

·         Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 9 advancers and 2 flats;

·         Last, Monday closed POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 23 advancers and 2 flats;

 

 

The stem, cell and gene therapy regenerative medicine (SCGT&RM) sector opened up, stayed positive at the mid-day and closed to the upside on Friday!

  • Consider the past few days’ performance being no guarantee of daily results as Mark Twain said, "History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme."

Expectation and sentiment have seen divergence due to skittish trading!

  • “Our” universe has to find its way to a more balanced approach to constraining a trading market to a sustaining investing climate and some of it revolves around practices related to short positioning.

I'm saying companies must adapt share price protectionism and a more balanced approach to enabling transfer agents and investment firms who are holding “our” shares in house accounts from “lending” those shares and reaping income from these practices to facilitate short selling.

 

 

You’ve made it to the office, turned on the monitor having just gotten your coffee and it hits you - what could be Monday’s trades?

  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed UP +$0.37 to $13.75 after Thursday’s $0.08 after being down Wednesday -$0.12 post Tuesday’s -$1.01 and Monday’s +$0.13. To me the closing numbers speak of the battle of traders of shares being oversold to being overbought. Friday’s after-market is -$0.16 –BUY to SELL;
  • Bellicum Pharma (BLCM) closed UP +$0.43 to $8.14. The stock has risen on small volume and stumbled on big volume after BLCM posted its financial results/earnings with the company posting <3/14/16>  a net loss of $0.63 per share, wider than the loss of $0.44 cents per share that analysts were expecting. Volume has been erratic as the shares increased Friday with 538.9 K, Thursday’s 726.8 K, Wednesday’s 523.4 K, Tuesday’s 1.468 M following Monday’s 249.4 K <average 3 month volume = 420.8 K>. Friday’s after-market indication is -$0.41 – Maintaining SELL;
  • bluebird bio (BLUE) closed DOWN -$0.82 to $44.64 on 1.645 M share volume <3 month average = 1.375 M shares>.  News has been limited and March’s historical pricing started at $50.51, jumped to a high of $55.12 and has edged back and forth in the high $40’s.  Friday’s after-market indication was -$0.14. Interest has been alternating on this carousel horse – SELL;
  • Capricor (CAPR) closed DOWN -$0.09 to $2.60 after Thursday’s +$0.19 to $2.69. Q4/15 financial results/earnings reflected an increased net loss of approximately $3.3 M, or $0.21 per share compared to a Q4/14 net loss of approximately $1.9 M, or $0.16 per share. For FY15, CAPR reported a net loss of $12.9 M, or $0.81 per share, compared to FY14’s $6.2 M, or $0.53 per share. Cash totaled $13.6 M at years end with a recent RDO of $4.1 M and a $3.38 M grant/loan which also lengthens its runway. As CAPR looks to the next generation of exosomes research but, what is their patent position? Based on the past weeks appreciation, traders could be taking advantage of some of the “ups” – Maintaining SELL;
  • MiMedx (MDXG) closed UP +$0.31 to $8.31 on 1.913 M share volume <3 month average = 957.7 K share volume>.  The week of March 14 through the 18th started at $8.53 slipping on Thursday’s $8.00. The issue traders trade! Friday’s after-market indication is -$0.26. - SELL;
  • Osiris (OSIR) closed UP +$0.21 to $5.20 after having more than its share of trouble <accounting and SEC issues>and upheaval <CEO and CFO leaving>. Resolution is going to take time.  Starting the year with a price of $10.03 does not compare to $11/2/16’s $18.08 or even 7/1/15’s $19.32.  The lower the share price goes the more it will make OSIR attractive to those contrarians <of which I am one> but, for the moment until the bulb lights, don’t pull the chain. Friday’s after-market indication is -$0.20 – SELL;
  • Sangamo Biosciences (SGMO) closed UP +$0.22 to $5.37 with 2.054 M shares traded. It’s been a week of downward sloping value which started Monday at $6.08 with 685.3 K shares traded followed by Wednesday’s $5.38 with 816.4 K shares traded after Thursday’s 1.54 M shares traded <at $5.15>. The deprecation sets a decelerating influence as Friday’s after-market indication is -$0.27- SELL;
  • Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed UP +$1.60 to $34.99. ONCE has been running “hot” having started March at $33.87, hitting $35.69 on 3/7, rotating 3/14 to $34.20. Friday’s after-market indication is down  -$1.68. The run-up scares me as traders are always ready to take profit. Maintaining SELL;
  • uniQure (QURE) closed UP +$0.70 to $11.84 on news of a first patient in a high-dose cohort in P1/2 Hemophilia B clinical trial however the upside fades as many trade the strength. I’d wait for QURE to present an updated analysis of all patients in the low-dose cohort at a scientific conference in the second quarter of 2016. SELL;
  • Vericel (VCEL) closed UP +$0.21 to $4.61. It’s been a good week starting Monday at $4.13, rolling to Wednesday at $4.62 but, is there a peak after the news of financial results/earnings as well as results from a P2b ixCELL-DCM clinical trial of ixmyelocel-T in patients with heart failure.  I believe that VCEL does not have the ability to fund the ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy program without a partner or another offering which I also believe is desperately needed to fund MACI™.  VCEL shouldn’t depend on a $10 M credit facility and $5 M term loan agreement with Silicon Valley Bank.  Don’t be surprised by a an offering appearing in the short-term. Traders’ trade and investors get nervous over strength and rapid run-up which tend to dissipate – maybe not today but, soon – SELL;

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.