Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

Lower open expected; RegMed sector, I’m cautious as traders chased appreciation

March 22, 2016 6:37am

Tuesday’s five (5) pre-open indications – is it time to binge or bolt?

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Dow futures are DOWN -0.1% and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.2 %

U.S. stock index futures indicated a lower open on Tuesday as traders reacted to reports of a series of explosions across the Belgian capital, Brussels.

<A Brussels fire service spokesperson told CNBC there were four explosions at the Brussels airport; and that explosions have taken place at different Brussels metro stations. The Flemish public broadcaster VRT, citing the emergency services, say 13 people are now dead and 35 severely injured following explosions in Brussels airport. Two explosions were reported from the airport and VRT is saying that one of them was a suicide attack.>

European markets traded lower after an explosion at Brussels airport left at least one person dead and several injured. the pan European Stoxx 600 Index was down by 0.85%, with downward moves across European markets.

Asia markets were mixed in a quiet session with a weaker yen buoying Japanese stocks while Chinese stocks gave their Monday gains but held onto the psychologically key 3,000 level.

Data docket: the FHFA home price index released at 9:00 a.m. ET.

The stem, cell and gene therapy RegMed sector closed POSITIVE on Monday, Friday and Thursday, NEGATIVE on Wednesday and last Tuesday.

Last five (5) days (of 43 covered companies):

Monday closed POSITIVE with 10 decliners, 31 advancers and 2 flats;
Friday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 22 advancers and 4 flats;
Thursday closed POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 21 advancers and 4 flats;
Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 19 advancers and 1 flat;
Last, Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 9 advancers and 2 flats;

The stem, cell and gene therapy regenerative medicine (SCGT&RM) sector opened up, stayed positive at the mid-day and closed to the upside on Monday for the third time in a row!

Still wearing last night’s hat …” Short-term deterioration is in the wind and ready to blow-down some appreciation! Opportunistic speculators prefer the short-term timeframe! Days to weeks forget months — traders run for the hills every time the advance/decline lines exceed daily expectation.”

We have experienced three (3) upside days after two (2) down closes post two (2) positive closes –a usual pattern – what’s next?

I just can’t trust the recent “run”, it’s a revolving carousel of horses that rise and dip by gears but, the music does stop if the moneys are not paid to the starter!

The takeaway is to temper investor's expectations as to what this sector is capable of!

You’ve made it to the office, turned on the monitor having just gotten your coffee and it hits you - what could be Tuesday’s trades?

Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed UP +$0.62 to $14.37 after Friday’s +$0.37 post Thursday’s +$0.08 following being down Wednesday -$0.12 post Tuesday’s -$1.01 and Monday’s +$0.13. To me the closing numbers speak of the battle of traders of shares being oversold to being overbought – Maintaining SELL;

Bellicum Pharma (BLCM) closed UP +$0.53 to $8.67 with 407.1 K shares traded after Friday’s +$0.43. The stock has risen on small volume and stumbled on big volume after BLCM posted its financial results/earnings with the company posting <3/14/16> a net loss of $0.63 per share, wider than the loss of $0.44 cents per share that analysts were expecting. Volume has been erratic as the shares increased Friday with 538.9 K, Thursday’s 726.8 K, Wednesday’s 523.4 K, Tuesday’s 1.468 M following Monday’s 249.4 K <average 3 month volume = 420.8 K> – Maintaining SELL;

Capricor (CAPR) closed UP +$0.15 to $2.75 after Friday’s -$0.09 post Thursday’s +$0.19. The recent registered direct offering adds 1.692 M shares to the float of 7.14 M shares and the outstanding <17.95 M shares>. As CAPR looks to base its future on the next generation of exosomes research, what is their patent position? Based on the past week’s appreciation, traders could be taking advantage of some of the “ups” – Maintaining SELL;

Kite Pharma (KITE) closed UP +$1.50 to $45.83. KITE announced that it had entered into a collaboration agreement with Roche Holding’s (RHHBY) Genentech for its immunotherapy candidate, KTE-C19. Per the terms of the agreement, the companies will collaborate to evaluate the safety and efficacy of Kite’s KTE-C19, in combination with Roche’s immunotherapy, atezolizumab (also known as MPDL3280A), in patients suffering from refractory, aggressive non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), with Kite acting as the sponsor of the study. Monday’s after-market indication is +$0.59 – BUY;

Vericel (VCEL) closed UP +$0.68 to $5.29 with 1.5 M shares traded following Friday’s +$0.21. Last Monday’s appreciation of +$4.13, rolling to Wednesday at $4.62 but, is there a peak after the news of financial results/earnings as well as results from a P2b ixCELL-DCM clinical trial of ixmyelocel-T in patients with heart failure? News is great and welcomed but, I believe that VCEL does not have the ability to fund the ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy program without a partner or another offering which I also believe is desperately needed to even fund MACI™. VCEL shouldn’t depend on a $10 M credit facility and $5 M term loan agreement with Silicon Valley Bank. Don’t be surprised by an offering appearing in the short-term. Traders’ trade and investors get nervous over strength and rapid run-up which tend to dissipate – maybe not today but, soon – Maintaining SELL;

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.