April 5, 2016 5:37pm

 

The sector was hog-tied by a 3 day rally with low volume albeit; ready to come back again for incremental value advances

 

Do you care what happened today, you should because it has implications to tomorrow’s sector activity?   

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Ranking Tuesday’s end-of-day pre-open trading indications – 26 hit, and 15 misses

Companies mentioned at the closing bell: AAVL, AGTC, BSTG, CLBS, HSGX, NWBO, ONCE, PSTI, QURE, RGNX and VCEL

 

 

There is one thing that everyone needs, and that's interpretation and translation of intelligence, not just news or information - we get too much!

  • To that end, I report a matrix of variables designed for investor’s consideration concerning the stem, cell and gene therapy regenerative medicine portfolio to track and monitor its pricing metric;

The takeaway is that investor need to decide what actions to take, or not take, based on their specific situation.

 

 

U.S. stocks closed lower Tuesday, following declines in overseas developed markets on soft data, despite gains in oil prices and better U.S. data.  The Dow closed down about 133 points, its first triple-digit loss since March 8. Selling accelerated as the close approached. The Dow briefly was off more than 150 points and the S&P 500 tumbled more than 1% to temporarily erase gains for the year so far. The S&P closed 1.01% lower to hold 0.06% higher for 2016. The NASDAQ declined 30 points, or 0.62% to 4,861.

The NASDAQ closed DOWN -47.86 or -0.98% to 4,843.93 and the DOW closed DOWN –133.68 or -0.75% to 17,603.32.

 

 

A day in the life of the stem, cell and gene therapy RegMed (SCGT & RM) sector – the advance/decline line scenario of our 43 covered companies.

  • Tuesday, the stem, cell and gene therapy and regenerative medicine sector opened negative with an A/DL of 11/30 and 2 flats – just about the opposite of yesterday;
  • The mid-day stayed negative with an A/DL of 15/27 with 1 flat;
  • The closing bell rang positive with A/DL of 15/26 with 2 flats

 

 

Earnings update:

 

 

Henry’omics:

The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) attempted slight gains.

  • The stem, cell and gene therapy regenerative medicine (SCGT&RM) sector opened negative, stayed negative at the mid-day  and closed … negative (of 43 covered companies).

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, rose more than 9% to near 15.4.

  • My issue, this persistent weakness of every other day spurts and drops can’t be ignored!

 

 

Out and about:

Biostage (BSTG) closed UP +$0.08 or +4.07% to $1.94 as the company “makes the rounds” – recognition of value after the name change and platform “regeneration”! The month of April started at $1.82 while March started at $1.33 and ended at $1.65.

  • Performance is telling setting the stage for a data read-out of their pre-clinical surgeries post the “transplant” to a new CEO!

 

Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS) the former NeoStem (NBS) closed UP +$0.0001 to a wholesome <caustic> $0.75. March had seen some progress as it started at $0.57 ending at 0.75 having a hit a high <another caustic> of $0.95 <3/14/16>.

  • April started at $0.74 having any value or upside being flushed down the drain.
  • So, where is CLBS going – the “Bored” of Directors (BOD) needs to take a hard look at the role of the “current” CEO and his past spending on the “polo town” Basking Ridge, NJ palace because he did not want to leave his previous company’s HQ <another bankrupt entity>.

 

The only good day yesterday for gene therapy or was it …

  • Applied Genetics Technologies (AGTC) closed DOWN -$0.49 or -3.02% to $15.75;
  • Avalanche Biotechnologies (AAVL) closed DOWN -$0.06 or -1.11% to $5.35;
  • Exception: bluebird bio (BLUE) closed UP +$0.12 or +0.26% to $47.66 – yesterday it was up +$2.08;
  • Exception: Regenxbio (RGNX) closed DOWN -$0.0 or +0.09% to $10.76 – yesterday was down -$0.08;
  • Exception: Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed UP +$0.34 or +1.07% to $32.17. ONCE is closest to securing the first-ever FDA approval for a gene therapy;
  • Exception: uniQure (QURE) closed UP +$1.27 or +9.55% to $14.57 which was down -$0.45 yesterday. Glybera, which costs more than $1 million per treatment with conditional approval in Europe

 

Histogenics (HSGX) is also back on the merry-go-round! HSGX closed down -$0.08 or -3.12% to $2.48, after yesterday’s +$0.17 and Monday’s +$0.10 following Friday’s -$0.29.

  • One issue is the short interest <32.89 K to 40.80 K> increases and the lack of news. Two good points are institutional holdings = 40.80% and insider holdings = 41.02% but, the retail component floats with the breeze;

 

Northwest Bio (NWBO) dropped -$0.08 or -5.06% to $1.50 with 253,3 K share volume after having <yesterday> risen 11%, the biggest move since 2/16/16, and more than nine times its industry group. The shares climbed to $1.68 from $1.51 in the previous session.

  • Yesterday’s trading volume was more than double the average.  Also as of yesterday, the stock returned a negative 47% so far this year and a loss of 78% in the past 52 weeks.
  • Short interest was 21 times NWBO's average daily trading and represented 24% of the shares available as of the latest quarterly filing.

 

Pluristem (PSTI) closed DOWN -$0.06 to $1.58. Slipping and sliding through March with values of $1.27 <starting the month> to luckily $1.61.

  • A slow path evolved, at March’s end at $1.61. PSTI starting April at $1.64 having seen February’s trading range of $0.84 through $1.30 a little better than January’s trading range of $1.13 through $0.88.

 

Vericel (VCEL) played “Humpty-Dumpty” again today as it fell another -$0.41 or -11.02% to $3.31 with 2.4 M shares traded <3 month average = 1.189 M shares> after yesterdays -$2.31 or -38.31% for more specificity …

  • Vericel (VCEL) data results show strong evidence but, not specifics as need for larger trials to prove the benefit of ixmyelocel-T …
  • But the results revealed the trial failed to meet some secondary goals, such as a measure of the duration of time to the first “event,” the size of the left ventricle cavity and the distance a patients could walk within six minutes. In all those measurements, the difference between patients who received the therapy and those on placebo was not statistically significant.
  • I have been steadfast in ranking VCEL a SELL – results are just TOO “foggy” and they have been operating on debt and borrowings unable to access the capital markets. 

 

 

Tuesday’s handicapping the sector pre-open indications – 26 hits and 15 miss: 

  • I stated that “our” universe is a bit overbought and subject to trading “profiteering” in many not all sector “participants”!
  • 26 hits and 15 misses

 

 

Dosing the sector – what a day for the 43 Patients:

  • The sector opened: NEGATIVE with 30 decliners, 11 advancers and 2 flats;
  • The mid-day (12:30 pm: NEGATIVE with 27 decliners, 15 advancers and 1 flat;
  • Closing bell: NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 15 advancers and 2 flats

 

 

Review my fear gauge or the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX):

  • Tuesday traded above 15;
  • Monday traded above 14;
  • Friday traded below 14
  • Thursday traded above 14;
  • Wednesday traded near 13;
  • Last, Tuesday traded near 15;

 

 

Riding the indexes and ETFs roller-coaster:

The iShares Biotechnology Stocks ETF (IBB) closed DOWN on Tuesday -1.01 or -0.37%

  • Monday +2.34 or +0.87%
  • Friday +7.50 or +2.88%
  • Thursday +5.87 or +2.3%
  • Wednesday -1.67 or -0.65%
  • Last, Tuesday +4.53 or +1.80%

The NASDAQ Biotechnology index (NBI) closed DOWN on Tuesday -9.63 or -0.34%

  • Monday +25.11 or +0.90%
  • Friday +78.26 or +2.87%
  • Thursday +58.59 or +2.20%
  • Wednesday -0.41 or -0.53%
  • Last, Tuesday +45.66 or +1.73%

The Russell 2000 (IWM) closed DOWN on Tuesday -1.25 or -1.13%

  • Monday -0.93 or -0.84%
  • Friday +0.49 or +0.44%
  • Thursday +0.31 or +0.28%
  • Wednesday +0.01 or +0.01%
  • Last, Tuesday +2.98 or +2.78%

The SPDR SD&P Biotech ETF (XBI) closed DOWN on Tuesday -0.06 or -0.11%

  • Monday +0.70 or +1.32%
  • Friday +1.50 or +2.90%
  • Thursday +1.49 or +2.97%
  • Wednesday -0.41 or -0.81%
  • Last, Tuesday +1.18 or +2.39%

 

 

Who was leading the declines – to of the bottom 5?

  • Intrexon (XON) closed down -$1.55 to $33.45;
  • Aduro Biotech (ADRO) -$0.88 to $13.36;
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) -$0.49 to $15.75;
  • Vericel (VCEL) -$0.41 to $3.31;
  • Kite Pharma (KITE) closed down -$0.26 to $50.03;

 

 

Who was UP – top 5:

  • uniQure (QURE) closed up +$1.27 to $14.57;
  • Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) +$1.25 to $39.54;
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS) +$1.10 to $29.15;
  • Spark therapeutics (ONCE) +$0.34 to $32.17;
  • Bellicum Pharma (BLCM) closed up +$0.30 to $10.41

 

 

Volume movers:

  • Vericel VCEL) 2.418 M versus yesterday’s 7.11 M shares traded <3 month average = 1.189 M shares>;
  • Cytori (CYTX) 2.634 M versus 3.773 M shares traded <3 month average = 1.533 M shares>;
  • Intrexon (XON) 2 M share versus yesterday’s 1.749 M <3 month average = 2 M shares>;
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L) 1.454 M shares traded <3 month average = 1.514 M shares>;
  • StemCells (STEM) 1.21 M shares traded <3 moth = 1 M shares>

 

 

Most active sector stocks + and -:

  • Vericel (VCEL) -11.02%;
  • Neuralstem (CUR) -8.26%;
  • Aduro biotech (AFRO) -6.18%
  • uniQure (QURE) +9.55%
  • Asterias Biotherapeutics (NYSEMKT: AST) +4.30%;
  • Biostage (BSTG) 4.07%
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS) +3.92%

 

 

Who was FLAT?

  • VistaGen (VSTA) at $8.50;
  • International Stem Cell (ISCO) at $4.05;

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.