April 8, 2016 6:53pm
The wild and free-roaming sector shares have been prone to unpredictable behavior, particularly bucking the past day’s trend.
Do you care what happened today, you should because it has implications to tomorrow’s sector activity?
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Companies mentioned: AAVL, ADRO, AGTC, AST, BLCM, BSTG, BTX, CLLS, HSGX, JUNO, KITE, NWBO, ONCE, QURE, RGNX and VCEL
There is one thing that everyone needs, and that's interpretation and translation of intelligence, not just news or information - we get too much!
- To that end, I report a matrix of variables designed for investor’s consideration concerning the stem, cell and gene therapy regenerative medicine portfolio to track and monitor its pricing metric;
The takeaway is that investor need to decide what actions to take, or not take, based on their specific situation.
U.S. stocks closed well off session highs Friday. The major averages declined more than 1% for the week, the worst since Feb. 5 for S&P 500 and NASDAQ and the worst since Feb. 12 for the Dow. The S&P 500 clung to year-to-date gains in the close after briefly erasing them as the major averages temporarily turned lower in afternoon trade. The Dow closed 35 points higher after earlier adding 152 points.
The NASDAQ closed barely UP +2.32 or -0.05% to 4,850.69 and the DOW closed UP +35.00 or +0.20% to 17,576.96.
A day in the life of the stem, cell and gene therapy RegMed (SCGT & RM) sector – the advance/decline line scenario of our 43 covered companies.
- Friday, the stem, cell and gene therapy and regenerative medicine sector opened positive with an A/DL of 21/18 and 4 flats;
- The mid-day jumped negative with an A/DL of 10/29 with 4 flats – the opposite of yesterday;
- The closing bell rang negative with A/DL of 13/27 with 3 flats
Earnings update:
- Regenerative Medicine Earnings Scorecard - Q4/2015 - to date … http://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/8876
Henry’omics:
Friday was a weird day as the NASDAQ underperformed the major averages but recovered losses to close up about 2 points.
- The Russell 2000 also closed higher, although also off session highs and down 1.8% for the week.
The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) declined 1.19% but gained nearly 3.4% for the week for its first three-week win streak since November.
- The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded lower near 15.4 after a high of 16.77 <its highest since March 15>.
Wednesday I stated … “A little-known indicator of risk perception among stock investors is flashing caution. That indicator measures the relative risk level of small-cap versus large-cap stocks. And when it leans too far one way or the other, it historically has signaled a change in the broader stock market”.
- Worries about abrupt departures for fleeting highs concern me!
Traders remain on high alert for the capacity to sell on the overbought and buy on the oversold that even though the SCGT&RM sector has ruled any aggressive appreciation!
- Next week the “our” universe and markets will be buffeted by the continuous volatility which remains at elevated levels depends on how investors are about to … interpret Q2/16 financial/earning’s results.
My pet peeve:
High-frequency trading accounted for 49% of April's daily trading volume of about 7 billion shares <according to TABB Group>.
- During the peak levels of high-frequency trading in 2009, about 61% of 9.8 billion of average daily shares traded were executed by high-frequency traders.
Out and about:
Biostage (BSTG) closed UP +$0.02 to $1.90 after yesterday’s -$0.02 after Wednesday’s -$0.04 following Tuesday’s +$1.94 post Monday’s $1.86 and last Friday’s $1.82 as the company “makes the rounds” –after the name change and platform “regeneration”! The month of April started at $1.82 while March started at $1.33 and ended at $1.65.
- Resilience counts ... !
The brother and sister got off the appreciation train …
- Asterias Biotherapeutics (NYSEMKT: AST) closed DOWN -$0.04 to $4.36 after yesterday’s -$0.15 after Wednesday’s $4.75 following Tuesday’s $4.61, Monday’s 4.42 and last Friday’s $4.58;
- BioTime (NYSEMKT: BTX) closed DOWN again -$0.14 to $3.02 after yesterday’s -$0.09 after Wednesday’s +$0.03 following Tuesday’s $3.22, Monday’s $3.15 following last Friday’s $2.92;
Unbundling, comparable analysis and valuation definition is more than needed!
The “another bad day” for gene therapy …
- Applied Genetics Technologies (AGTC) closed DOWN again -$0.02 to $15.85 after yesterday’s -$1.01 to $15.87 after Wednesday’s +$1.13 after Tuesday’s -$0.49;
- Avalanche Biotechnologies (AAVL) also closed DOWN again -$0.09 to $5.20 after yesterday’s -$0.20 after Wednesdays +$0.14 after Tuesday’s -$0.06;
- Exception: bluebird bio (BLUE) closed UP +$0.31 to $50.82 after being down -$1.05 after Wednesday’s +$5.91 after Tuesday’s +$0.12 and Monday’s +$2.08;
- Exception: Regenxbio (RGNX) closed UP +$0.04 to $11.73 after being down -$0.06 after Wednesday’s +$0.99 after Tuesday’s $10.76 while Monday was down -$0.08;
- Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed DOWN -$0.75 to $%33.65 after yesterday’s -$1.38 after Wednesday’s +$3.61 or after Tuesday’s +$0.34 post Monday’s $31.83;
- uniQure (QURE) closed DOWN again -$0.35 to $13.65 after yesterday’s -$0.21 to $14.00 following Wednesday’s -$0.36 after Tuesday’s +$1.27 post the -$0.45 on Monday.
The immuno-oncology and CAR-T’s were DOWN and responding to speculators “skimming” the upside …
- Aduro Biotech (ADRO) closed DOWN -$0.31 to $14.08 after yesterday’s -$0.36 after being up Wednesday’s +$1.39;
- Bellicum Pharma (BLCM) closed DOWN again -$0.17 to $10.63 after yesterday’s -$0.39 after Wednesday’s +$0.78;
- Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed DOWN again -$0.52 to $28.97 after being down-$1.60 after Wednesday’s +$1.84;
- Exception: Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) closed UP +$1.04 to $41.89 after news of a collaboration to penetrate the Chinese market following being down -$1.39 to $40.85 after Wednesday’s +$2.70;
- Kite Pharma (KITE) closed DOWN -$1.05 to $50.27 after yesterday’s -$2.40 after Wednesday’s +$3.69;
Histogenics (HSGX) is also back on the merry-go-round! HSGX closed UP +$0.05 to $2.46 after being down -$0.08 following Wednesday’s -$0.04 to $2.43 after Tuesday’s $2.47 following Monday’s +$2.56 and last Friday’s +$2.39.
- Sustainability needed ...
Northwest Bio (NWBO) closed DOWN -$0.06 to $1.66 after being up +$0.20 after Wednesday’s +0.07 having dropped Tuesday to $1.50 following Monday’s $1.58 and Friday’s $1.51.
- Far from the pricing of a year ago!
Vericel (VCEL) still the “Humpty-Dumpty” closed DOWN another -$0.04 to $3.14 after being down -$0.15 after closing Wednesday at $3.33 having fallen yesterday to $3.31 following Monday’s $3.72 and Friday’s $6.03.
- The problem is exiting on debt and borrowings!
Friday’s handicapping the sector pre-open indications –
- I stated, drop a dime – HOLD for the oversold rebound, it will show!
- Remember the old adage, which says that a rising tide lifts all boats, but no matter which way the market is moving, there are stocks that will always go their own way!
Dosing the sector – what a day for the 43 Patients:
- The sector opened: POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 21 advancers and 4 flats;
- The mid-day (12:30 pm: NEGATIVE with 29 decliners, 10 advancers and 4 flats;
- Closing bell: NEGATIVE with 27 decliners, 13 advancers and 3 flats
Review my fear gauge or the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX):
- Friday traded near 15.4 – down!
- Thursday traded near 16.7;
- Wednesday traded below 14.5;
- Tuesday traded above 15;
- Monday traded above 14;
- Friday traded below 14
- Last, Thursday traded above 14;
Riding the indexes and ETFs roller-coaster:
The iShares Biotechnology Stocks ETF (IBB) closed DOWN on Friday -3.35 or -1.19%
- Thursday -4.81 or -1.68%
- Wednesday +16.07 or +5.96%
- Tuesday -1.01 or -0.37%
- Monday +2.34 or +0.87%
- Last, Friday +7.50 or +2.88%
The NASDAQ Biotechnology index (NBI) closed DOWN on Friday -30.86 or -1.05%
- Thursday -56.33 or -1.88%
- Wednesday 167.97 or +5.95%
- Tuesday -9.63 or -0.34%
- Monday +25.11 or +0.90%
- Last, Friday +78.26 or +2.87%
The Russell 2000 (IWM) closed UP on Friday +0.43 or +0.40%
- Thursday -1.49 or -1.35%
- Wednesday +1.23 or +1.13%
- Tuesday -1.25 or -1.13%
- Monday -0.93 or -0.84%
- Last, Friday +0.49 or +0.44%
The SPDR SD&P Biotech ETF (XBI) closed DOWN on Friday -0.97 or -1.71%
- Thursday -0.78 or -1.35%
- Wednesday +3.78 or +7.02%
- Tuesday -0.06 or -0.11%
- Monday +0.70 or +1.32%
- Last, Friday +1.50 or +2.90%
Who was leading the declines – to of the bottom 5?
- Kite Pharma (KITE) closed down -$1.05 to $50.27;
- Spark therapeutics (ONCE) -$0.75 to $33.65;
- Cellectis SA (CLLS) -$0.52 to $28.87;
- uniQure (QURE) -$0.35 to $13.65;
- Aduro (ADRO) closed down -$0.31 to $14.08;
Who was UP – top 5:
- Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) closed up +$1.04 to $41.89;
- bluebird bio (BLUE) +$0.31 to $50.82;
- Capricor (CAPR) +$0.03 to $2.79;
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE) +$0.13 to $2.14;
- Osiris (OSIR) closed up +$0.11 to $5.69;
Volume movers:
- ReNeuron (RENE.L) 2.684 M shares traded <3 month average = 1.54 M shares>;
- Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) 1.526 M shares traded versus yesterday’s 1.543 M shares compared to Wednesday’s 1.688 M shares traded <3 month average =1.6 M shares>;
- bluebird bio (BLUE) 1.176 M shares traded versus yesterday’s 1.398 M shares compared to Wednesday’s 1.765 M shares traded <3 month average = 1.468 shares>;
- Kite Pharma (KITE) 1.145 M shares traded <3 month average = 1.27 M shares>;
- Sangamo (SGMO) 1 M shares traded <3 month average = 1 M shares>
Most active sector stocks + and -:
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE) +6.47%;
- Capricor (CAPR) +1.01%;
- Cytori (CYTX) +4.26%;
Versus …
- Opexa (OPXA) -4.76%
- BioTime (NYSEMKT: BTX) -4.43%;
- Fibrocell (FCSC) -3.97%;
Who was FLAT?
- International Stem cell (ISCO at $4.00;
- ReNeuron (RENE.L) at $3.00;
- VistaGen (VSTA) at $8.00;
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
