April 18, 2016 7:05am

 

Keep your eyes on the aftermaths of situations …

 

The stem, cell and gene therapy regenerative medicine sector closed NEGATIVE on Friday, POSITIVE on Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday and NEGATIVE on last Monday.

Monday’s four (4) watch list - companies named: BSTG, KITE, NWBO and XON,

 

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I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't; whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between – it defines the who, when, where, which and what of it …

 

Where is today’s market going; Dow futures are DOWN -0.22% and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.25 %

 

U.S. stocks looked set to open sharply lower on Monday, with investor sentiment hit by the news that major oil-producing countries had failed to agree to a freeze on crude output.

European stocks came off session lows, however sentiment remained downbeat after leading oil producers failed to agree on a freeze in oil output.

Asia markets dropped, as oil tumbled after top oil producers failed to reach an agreement to freeze production and Japan shares took a hit from large earthquakes last week.

 

Data docket: Housing market indicators will dominate this week's U.S. economic data, with the NAHB housing index out on Monday. Both Asian and European stock indexes traded lower early on Monday as a result of the "no-deal" from Qatar.

 

 

The stem, cell and gene therapy regenerative medicine sector last 5 days (of 43 covered companies):

  • Friday closed barely NEGATIVE with 20 decliners, 19 advancers and 4 flats;
  • Thursday closed POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 25 advancers and 2 flats;
  • Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 9 decliners, 34 advancers and 0 flats;
  • Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 19 decliners, 21 advancers and 3 flats;
  • Last, Monday closed NEGATIVE with 33 decliners, 7 advancers and 3 flats;

 

 

A reminder from Friday’s closing post, “The major averages closed off session lows but remained under pressure, after earlier attempting slight gains. Why did I feel there was some run-up for days before … Friday marked options expiration?”

  • The stem, cell and gene therapy regenerative medicine (SCGT&RM) sector had a mid-week rally <three positive days out of five sessions> and then a drop back - watch for entry points.

I recently received an email from a blog reader inquiring about my performance.

  • Investing and trading are two very different methods of attempting to profit in the stem, cell and gene therapy and regenerative medicine sector markets.

However, one day or week’s performance should not determine “our” universe’s future.

  • I can identify in the last 3 months that my hit and missprognostications have averaged 53% in January, 64% in February and 57% in March. June 2015 through December 2015, I have averaged a ratio of hits and misses of 60.6% for a nine (9) month <total> range of 53% to 64%!

What I have also heard is that the best equity traders have a win ratio of only 50%, and some very successful swing and position traders have an average of only 40%.

  • Yet, I don’t feel that these percentages reflect the true state of “our” universe – there are just too many factors affecting the sector - indexes, program trading and market fluctuations!

I continue to provide a filter that identifies and cuts out the useless information and recognizes potentially actionable prognosis that will sustain share price appreciation in the sector!

  • What does that mean; I am thinning the focus on profiting from short-term price fluctuations. Trading has been a vehicle but, is not a solution to the fluctuations in “our” universe!

The majority of investors don’t have the time (or inclination) to get into the nitty gritty details of investing.

 

Thus, I am evolving my posts and rhetoric to leverage my performance from a day to day hit or miss to a perspective of investing rather than trading.

 

 

You’ve made it to the office, turned on the monitor having just gotten your coffee and it hits you - what could be today’s trades?

 

Watch, wait and listen list:

  • The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) closed down -0.36% on Friday;

 

  • The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) closed down -0.14%;

 

  • NASDAQ Biotechnology (NBI) closed down -0.32%;

 

  • The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) closed down -0.07% on Friday and is DOWN -0.54% in the pre-market  on Monday;

 

  • The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) closed UP +0.25% on Friday and is DOWN in the pre-market -0.40% on Monday.

 

 

For Monday's consideration:

  • Biostage (BSTG) had been flip-flopping this last week having started last Monday at $1.88, scrolled down to $1.83 on Wednesday and finished Friday at $1.80 on lower volume than the inducement of the upsides higher volume.  Don’t be put off by the down trends; the sell-off affected many sector “participants”.  This is a totally different company from when its name was changed from Harvard Apparatus Regenerative Medicine (HART). Hopefully, soon there should be news of their pre-clinical second generation results which will further their attainment of an IND filing as well as strengthening their orphan drug designation. Be ready for the upside - BUY.

 

  • Intrexon (XON) - The Zika virus has been around for decades, but its prevalence has exploded since 2014. Additional research from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other scientists worldwide has shown that the Zika virus may be far worse than expected for both pregnant and non-pregnant persons. <Motley Fool>. These are now well-known possible side effects of contracting the Zika virus. However, a new series of "neurological mysteries," as described by The Atlantic, have emerged that could be tied to the Zika virus. These may include acute myelitis (spinal cord inflammation), meningoencephalitis (inflammation of the brain and its outer membranes), and acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (inflammation of the brain and spinal cord). In general, if these correlations prove to be more than just flukes, it would suggest that the Zika virus may specifically target nerve cells; and if that's the case, then the CDC is quite justified in calling Zika "scarier" than anyone initially thought. Adding fuel to the fire, Zika could spread at an even quicker rate once temperatures begin rising in the United States. The best solution might just belong to XON, which has taken a unique approach to combatting the Zika virus. The big question is whether affected countries will opt for Intrexon's perceived-to-be ready solution or not.  XON is counting on plentiful US and foreign government contracts to drive its Zika virus program growth. Some view combating Zika as a $200 million to $400 million annual opportunity for Intrexon. For now all we can do is keep our eyes and ears open for the latest information from the CDC or WHO and wait - BUY.;

 

  • Kite Pharma (KITE) - A cancer therapy licensed by KITE continued to be safe and show durable responses against solid tumors for some patients in an early-stage trial run by the U.S. National Cancer Institute.  In a trial of 14 patients who received different doses, three patients’ cancers have shrunk partially, according to a study presented Sunday at the American Association for Cancer Research’s conference in New Orleans. The researchers had presented initial positive data in November, and the updated study shows that the three partial responses were durable, with one cervical cancer patient’s response continuing at 15 months.  KITE has licensed the therapy from the National Cancer Institute and has said it will file an IND <investigational new drug> application with the FDA by the end of the year so it can begin company trials - BUY;

 

  • Northwest Bio (NWBO) closed UP +$0.01 to $1.60. NWBO has been “taking it on the chin” too long. It’s time to treat this equity better, however, the short position as a percentage of the float is 36.38%. In contrast, the institutional holding is 42.6% while the insider position holding is 30.22%, a clear sign that there is a difference of sentiment in the retail “position”.  “From a technical perspective, Northwest Biotherapeutics spiked sharply higher on Friday right above its 20-day moving average of $1.54 a share with strong upside volume flows. This stock has been up trending over the last month, with shares moving higher off its low of $1.28 a share to its recent high of $1.84 a share. During that uptrend, this stock has been making mostly higher lows and highs, which is bullish technical price action. This high-volume step up on Friday is now quickly pushing shares of NWBO towards a range of triggering a major breakout trade. That trade will trigger if this stock manages to take out its 50-day moving average of $1.75 a share and then above more key resistance at $1.84 a share with high volume. Traders should now look for long-biased trades in Northwest Biotherapeutics as long as it's trending above its 20-day moving average of $1.54 a share or above more near-term support at $1.40 a share and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 453,243 shares. If that breakout fires off soon, then this stock will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $2.25 to $2.50, or even $2.60 to $2.71 a share. <Roberto Pedrone < is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies>.  No negative news has emanated about any old or new issues thus the doldrums need to be overcome - BUY.

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.