Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RMi’s closing bell scrutiny: along for the momentum ride

May 18, 2016 5:04pm

All I see are short-term, kneejerk reactions as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) climbed 1.39%.

Pre-open indications: 1 hit and 1 miss

Do you care what happened today, you should … because it has implications to Thursday's sector activity?

Subscribe: http://www.regmedinvestors.com/create-account

There is one thing that everyone needs, and that's interpretation and translation of intelligence, not just news or information - we get too much!

To that end, I report a matrix of variables designed for investor’s consideration concerning the stem, cell and gene therapy and regenerative medicine portfolio to track and monitor its pricing metric;

U.S. stocks came off session highs Wednesday after the release of the Fed's April meeting minutes, which said a June rate hike was likely if the data improves.

The NASDAQ closed UP +23.39 or +0.50% to 4,739.12 and the DOW closed DOWN -3.36 or -0.02% to 17,526.62.

A day in the life of the stem, cell and gene therapy RegMed (SCGT & RM) sector – the advance/decline line scenario of our 43 covered companies.

Opened positive with an A/DL of 24/17 and 2 flats – the opposite of yesterday;

The mid-day stayed positive with an A/DL of 25/15 with 3 flats;

The closing bell remained positive with A/DL of 25/15 with 3 flats

Henry’omics:

Sector stocks opened positive, stayed positive at the mid-day and closed positive – thank you - momentum.

Volume characteristics are a tried and true indicator and currently - it’s light.

The simplest explanation is that the SCGT&RM sector has more risk than it has reward at this juncture at this point in FY16.

So why take this kind of risk after Q1’s performance without a knowledge base of catalysts and milestones a t this time?

There is an increasing probability that the SCGT&RM sector is not going to move substantially higher any time soon as a sideways trend seems to be the tendency.

This is not a passing phase!

Companies just don't have any idea how to manage the choices they make in the market.

The issue for many companies in “our” universe is a case of investment that’s staying in the sector, has left the sector and may not be coming back.

A pre-open indication batting stats – 1 hit and 1 miss:

bluebird bio (BLUE) closed UP +$0.48 – miss;
Cytori (CYTX) closed down -$0.46 – hit;

The Bottom Line:

Investors should maintain a reduced set of expectations as to what the SCGT&RM sector is capable of. It is not the same for traders – they thrive on these issues!
A word to the wise or those who are trying to be, risk exposure needs to be adjusted … WEEKLY!

Review my fear gauge or the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX):

Wednesday traded at 15.3;
Tuesday traded below 15;
Monday traded below 14.6;
Friday closed near 14.5;
Last, Thursday near 14;

Who was leading the declines – to of the bottom 5?

Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed down -$0.55 to $29.33;
Cytori (CYTX) -$0.46 to $2.87;
Regenxbio (RGNX) -$0.23 to $12.25;
StemCells (STEM) -$0.11 to $2.67;
VistaGen (VTGN) closed down -$0.10 to $3.89

Who was UP – top 5:

Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed up +$4.11 to $41.23;
Kite Pharma (KITE) +$1.85 to $45.56;
Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) +$1.34 to $39.68;
Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) +$1.01 to $15.67;
Aduro Biotech (ADRO) closed up +$0.57 to $10.12;

Who was flat?

Vericel (VCEL) at $2.99;
Fate Therapeutics (FATE) at $1.52;
ReNeuron (RENE.L) at $3.375;

Most active sector stocks + and -:

Cytori (CYTX) -13.81%;
Biostage (BSTG) -5.10%;
Pluristem (PSTI) -4.40%;
StemCells (STEM) -3.96%;
Northwest Bio (NWBO) -3.93%;

versus …

Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) +11.07%;
Applied Genetic Therapeutics (AGTC) +6.90%;
Aduro Biotech (ADRO)+5.97%;
Adverum (ADVM) +5.70%;
Cesca Therapeutics (KOOL) +4.69%

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

35 companies, 1 interpreter!

Insight, foresight and recommendation

My motto … never leave an investor uninformed! I say today what others won’t, so you can do what others can’t.

My name is Henry McCusker; I endorse these opinions under my own name and with a subscription based membership.

Do you have an opinion you would like to share with us? We would like to hear from you.

Please e-mail us at hwm@regmedinvestors.com.

Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

RegMed Investors (RMi) or Regmedinvestors.com content is the intellectual property of Henry McCusker. Any copying, republication or redistribution of RMI’s content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Scimitar; who also shall not be liable for any errors or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. For additional information on other Scimitar media services or reposting please email hwm@regmedinvestors.com.

The information included above as well as individual companies and/or securities mentioned should be construed as guidance in RMi reviews.

The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my qualitative analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.