RegMed investors’ closing bell analysis: after four (4) up sessions, the fix was in

July 11, 2016 5:43pm

… Speculative sentiment enhanced by low volume heralded a downside

“Our” universe had bought itself some time before an inevitable loss of momentum as sector breadth divergence took hold,

My pre-open indications – 3 hits (BLUE, KITE and JUNO) and 2 miss (AGTC and CLLS):

Do you care what happened today, you should … because it has implications to Tuesday's sector activity?  

Where has today’s market gone – subscribe and find out. 

There are two things that investors need - interpretation of news and translation of market metrics concerning the stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy sector to substantiate share pricing.

U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday as investors cheered an election in Japan and extended a jobs-report rally.  The benchmark S&P 500 index closed at a new all-time high and also posted a new all-time intraday high of 2,143.16. The NASDAQ ended up more than half a percent, and posted its best settlement of the year. The index also broke above the 5,000 mark for the first time since Dec. 31.

The NASDAQ closed UP +31.88 or +0.64% to 4,988.64 and the DOW closed UP +80.19 or +0.44% to 18,226.93.

A day in the life of the stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCGT & RT) sector – the advance/decline line scenario of our 43 covered companies:    

• The open was positive with an A/DL of 25/16 and 2 flats;
• The mid-day was positive with an A/DL of 26/14 and 3 flats;
• The closing bell was negative with A/DL of 16/25 and 2 flat;

Henry’omics:

The SCGT&RT sector opened positive, stayed positive at the mid-day and closed negative.

• Volume was lights but, larger than Friday …

The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) closed DOWN -0.21%

• So much uncertainty and here we sit with an afternoon that flipped to the downside.

While the past four (4) sessions are ideal, the growth-oriented NASDAQ has also managed to hurdle both the 20- and 50-day moving averages.

• Don’t get TOO comfortable with sector stocks …

The equity risk premium is high and the risks are greater than they appear. MY eyes are on financial results/earnings which are about to start with Athersys (ATHX) announcing on 8/9/16 at 4:30 pm.

Out and about:

Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) closed DOWN -$0.04 to $3.34 …

• ADVM continues to move forward with anti-VEGF wAMD gene-therapy candidates after analyzing pre-clinical data evaluating different compounds in recently completed non-human primate studies.
• A little too early for the “curtsey”

BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed UP +$0.80 to $2.37 …

• As I imputed this am, BLFS’ 10 year supply contract with KITE is a great HYPE “story”. The stock’s pre-open was +$1.67 that as quickly dissolved s the session evolved. The company is all but, out of cash <$1.66 M as of 3/31/16> and recently announced a 10% interest driven “loan or advance” after the revolving door of executives – CFO, past founders and others. All’s not right in Bothell!
• What are they going to do – RUSH out an offering – questionable?

Biostage (BSTG) closed DOWN -$0.04 to $1.08 …

• After an offering of $1.76, weeks ago
• Needs to define its path to “prospective” share growth and power
• With 193.279 shares traded <3 month average = 211,906>

ImmunoCellular Therapeutics (NYSEMKT: IMUC) closed UP +$0.0055 to $0.24 …

• After proposing a $24.2 M offering
• With a stock trading at $0.24 and float and outstanding shares of 93.42 – garbage deal!
• ImmunoCellular raises maximum offering price in to $24.2 M from $15 M (June 1 filing) for prospective offering via Maxim and Laidlaw for a secondary for 60 M shares, warrants – 50% warrant coverage <for 30 M shares>
• I had stated, without a reverse (of what …?), who is kidding whom … “this dog doesn’t retrieve”!

Mesoblast (MESO) closed DOWN -$0.03 to $4.09 …

• Reiterating, TEVA returned rights to cardiovascular program.
• Teva has relinquished all rights to cardiovascular applications of Mesoblast's mesenchymal precursor cell (MPC) technology, as it focuses on its core CNS and respiratory interests.
• Still a believer …

Pluristem (PSTI) closed UP +$0.07 to $1.52

• Announced another P1 with unnamed CRO
• Is there an issue in naming their “next trial”? PSTI never issues a complete story – WHY, hiding something?
• I also stated appreciation would DISSOLVE as the trading flickered $1.51 to $1.56 on 504,298 shares traded <3 month average volume= 132,708 share>
• You’d think with all the volume, it would have spurted more …

uniQure (QURE) announces oral presentation of “updated results” for AMT-060 at the World Federation of Hemophilia (WFH) 2016 World Congress

• The presentation will take place on 7/27/16
• The P1/2, open-label, multi-center study includes 10 patients each receiving a one-time, 30-minute, intravenous administration of AMT-060, without the use of immunosuppression therapy.
• The study includes two dose cohorts of five patients each, with the first cohort receiving 5x1012 gc/kg and the second cohort receiving 2x1013 gc/kg.
• All patients in the trial had documented severe or moderately-severe hemophilia, including documented FIX levels less than 1-2%, and required chronic infusions of prophylactic or on-demand Factor IX therapy at the time of enrollment.

Review my fear gauge or the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX):

• Monday traded near 13.5;
• Friday traded below 13.3;
• Thursday traded near 15.89;
• Wednesday traded above 17;
• Tuesday near 16;
• Last, Monday was a holiday;

Today’s Bottom Line:

I was expecting a down session as the traders I spoke with were a little TOO anxious!

My pre-open indications – 3 hits and 2 miss:

• Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed UP +$0.16 – miss;
• bluebird bio (BLUE) closed DOWN -$0.08 – hit;
• Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed UP +$0.60 – miss;
• Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) closed DOWN -$0.48 – hit;
• Kite Pharma (KITE) closed DOWN -$0.85 – hit;

Largest decliners:

• Bellicum Pharma (BLCM) -4.88%;
• ReNeuron (RENE.L) -4.76%;
• Northwest Bio (NWBO) -3.96%;
• Biostage (BSTG) -3.57%;
• Sangamo )SGMO) -2.91%

Advancers:

• BioLife Solutions (BLFS) +50.55%;
• Histogenics (HSGX) +8.77% ;
• Pluristem (PSTI) +4.83%;
• Opexa (OPXA) +3.05%;
• AxoGen (AXGN) +3.01%;

Flat:                                                                                                                                      

• Cytori (CYTX) at $2.01;
• uniQure (QURE) at $7.85

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.