September 7, 2016 5:29pm

… By distrust and hesitation, respectively!

 

In an uncertain world, it makes sense that certainty should be rewarded …

… But there also seems to be a huge gap between the market pricing and valuation

 

Pre-open indication’s tally:  4 hits (AGTC, ADRO, BTX and VTGN) and 1 miss (CLLS)

Financial results/earnings: Pluristem (PSTI) files 8-K (10Q) versus investor release

 

Do you care what happened today, you should … because it has implications to Thursday's sector activity?  

 

I answer one question; in which company should investors put, keep and commit their money!

 

If you are NOT a subscriber – SIGN UP!  You don’t want a blank screen before settling on a trade!

 

 

There are two things that investors need - interpretation of news and translation of market metrics concerning the stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy sector to substantiate share pricing.

 

 

U.S. stocks closed mixed Wednesday, with consumer staples lagging, as investors digested the release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book.

The NASDAQ closed UP +8.02 or +0.15% to 5,283.93 and the DOW closed DOWN -11.98 or -0.06% to 18,526.14.

 

 

A day in the life of the stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCGT & RT) sector – the advance/decline line scenario of our 43 covered companies:   

  • The open was positive with an A/DL of 30/9 and 4 flats;
  • The mid-day stayed positive with an A/DL of 30/10 and 0 flats;
  • The closing bell continued positive with A/DL of 27/15 and 1 flat;

 

 

Henry’omics:

The stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCGT&RT) sector was positive at the opening bell, stayed positive at the mid-day with the sector closing positive.

  • The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) was UP +0.71% but, I am NOT hanging totally in as the aftermarket indication is negative -0.29% but, the iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) was UP with an aftermarket indication of +0.04%.

So, it is a contest to see which “set of numbers” gives one a read for the day’s “action”.

 

For today, the fifteen (15) losers run the downside -0.58% to -8.70%.

Thinking of different ways to measure the percentage (%) downside by company:

  • 1 … -8+%
  • 1 … -6+%;
  • 4 … -3+%
  • 2 … -2=%
  • 4 … -1+%
  • 4 … below -1%

While the upside twenty seven (27) ranged +0.04% to +17.88%.

Another, thinking of different ways to measure the percentage (%) upside by company:

  • 8 – 1+%
  • 3 – 2+%
  • 2 – 3+%
  • 6 – 4+%
  • 1 – 6+%
  • 1 - 8+%
  • 1 – 17+%

Volume was spiking in ReNeuron (RENE.L) – 2nd day, ImmunoCellular (NYSEMKT: IMUC), Intrexon (XON), Organovo (ONVO), StemCells (STEM), MiMedx (MDXG), Northwest Bio (NWBO) – 2nd day, Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) and Aduro Biotech (ADRO)

  • Reiterating, there are many ways to interpret the volume, advance/decline (A/DL) lines and volatility, but the truth is that many stocks in “our” universe are oversold, some conversely overbought and a number of those in each category are about to be subject  to serious discounts, depreciation and dilution due to the need for operational capital .

 

For stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy equities to become appealing again, expectation needs to supplant some of the bonehead press releases with clear and articulate definitions of the plusses of the “happening” event <and maybe a negative> which could focus more than some recovery in share pricing!

 

Call me cantankerous, contrarian or even a curmudgeon but at the least I get it right and investors make money!

 

 

Pre-open indication’s tally:  4 hit and 1 miss:

  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed UP +$0.16 – hit;
  • Aduro Biotech closed DOWN -$0.51 – hit;
  • BioTime (NYSEMKT: BTX) closed UP +$0.23 – hit;
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed DOWN -$0.19 – miss;
  • VistaGen (VTGN) closed DOWN -$0.12 – hit;

               

 

Out and about:

Pluristem (PSTI) as always discounts investors or are hiding something as they filed an 8-K (10Q) rather than a press release …

 

 

Today’s Bottom Line:

Sentiment and complacency are at extremes - it’s too risky to be too long after this upside, but it’s also too early to bet against or be short these or today’s positive moves.

 

 

Review my fear gauge or the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX):

  • Wednesday traded 11.94;
  • Tuesday traded near 12.2;
  • Monday was a holiday;
  • Friday traded near 12.2;
  • Thursday traded near 13.5;
  • Last Wednesday traded near 13.5;

 

 

Decliners:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L) -8.70% after being FLAT on Tuesday;
  • StemCells (STEM) -6.16% after Tuesday’s -5.19%;
  • ImmunoCellular (NYSEMKT: IMUC) -3.96% after Tuesday’s -4.65% after Friday’s -5.77%;
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS) -3.35% - a company with NO cash other than borrowed;
  • Aduro Biotech (ADRO) -3.29% (-$0.51) after Tuesday’s +6.83% - another I told you so;

 

Advancers:

  • Histogenics (HSGX) +17.88% after Tuesday’s -7.62%,  always the come-back stock;-
  • Capricor (CAPR) +4%;
  • BioTime (NYSEMKT: BTX) +8.21% - you heard it here first;
  • Asterias Biotherapeutics (NYSEMKT: AST) +6.10%;
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE) +4.94%

 

Flat:

  • Biostage (BSTG) at $1.09 – ominous with 61.3 K shares traded

                                                                                                                               

                                                                                                  

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.