RegMed Investors’ closing bell analysis, pick a stock, any equity … today’s sector game

September 14, 2016 6:04pm

… Detecting which company to play and stock to BUY or SELL that traders have selected …

To feed an exit and sell!

… Works only if the oversold are ready to be the overbought

Pre-open indication’s tally:  1 hit (AST) and 5 miss (AGTC, BSTG, CAPR, CLLS and ONCE)

Advance/Decline and Flat Recap: 26/13 and 4 flats

Out and about: Opexa (OPXA), Stemline (STML) and Asterias (NYSEMKT: AST)

Do you care what happened today, you should … because it has implications to Thursday's sector activity?  

I answer one question; in which company should investors put, keep and commit their money!

I predicted today’s sector action, in fact if you had read the am post - you would have known what signal to look for  ...

There are two things that investors need - interpretation of news and translation of market metrics concerning the stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy sector to substantiate share pricing.

U.S. stocks traded mostly lower on Wednesday, the Dow traded about lower, erasing earlier gains. The S&P 500 fell while the NASDAQ performed positively.

The NASDAQ closed UP +18.52 or +0.36% to 5,173.77 and the DOW closed DOWN -31.98 or -0.18% to 18,034.77.

A day in the life of the stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCGT & RT) sector – the advance/decline line scenario of our 43 covered companies:   

• The open was positive with an A/DL of 27/13 and 3 flats;
• The mid-day stayed positive with an A/DL of 26/14 and 3 flats;
• The closing bell continued negative with A/DL of 26/13 and 4 flats;

Henry’omics:

Related to the title, each investor must accept the cards, the sector dealt them: but once they are in hand, investors must alone decide how to play the ups or downs in order to appreciate their portfolio.

• Investing is a GAME of cards … investors need to let go and NOT play a bad hand or portfolio holding.

Talking about cards … How many companies are replays of the “House of Cards” Netflix show?

• I'm interested in putting an amount of humor into “our” universe and its pricing and the analogy of playing cards just happen to be a perfect medium for my message.

The stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCGT&RT) sector was positive at the opening bell, stayed positive at the mid-day with the sector closing positive.

• The broken record whines on, I keep telling investors in the a.m. to check the indexes:  The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) indicated +0.38% while the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) was NOT indicating and rose 0.93% – thus cards we’re dealt to be played, folded or bluffed!

Volume spikes that stand out:  Northwest Bio (NWBO) – 6th day <7.52 M shares versus yesterday’s 22.346 M shares versus 3 month average = 1.3 M>, StemCells (STEM) 5.98 M shares traded >3 month average =2.884 M shares>, Asterias Biotherapeutics (NYSEMKT: AST) 1.646 M shares traded <3 month = 175.5 K shares>, BioLife Solutions (BLFS) 979.5 K <3 month average = 407.7 K shares >

Volume is picking-up.

• As volatility in the downside averaged –0.06% to 21.27%
• While the upside volatility spread averaged +0.11% to 11.45%.

As compared the slide yesterday:

• As volatility in the downside averaged –0.26% to 31.77%
• While the upside volatility spread averaged +0.11% to 42.61%.

Reiterating as a word of caution to investors – we are solidly stuck in a trading market with investors left on the sidelines!  My expectation is to see the usual stock price destruction to continue and the upswings to incrementally take pricing higher and slower.

• I believe traders are bluffing, feeding the pot for an exit i.e. ace in the sleeve to sell!

Call me cantankerous, contrarian or even a curmudgeon but at the least I get it right and investors make money!

Pre-open indication’s tally:  1 hit and 5 miss:

• Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed DOWN -$0.16 – miss – still $9.57 value in the share price;
• Asterias Biotherapeutics (NYSEMKT: AST) closed UP +$0.22 – hit;
• Biostage (BSTG) closed DOWN -$0.015 – miss – said hold;
• Capricor (CAPR) closed UP +$0.18 – miss;
• Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed UP +$0.67 – miss;
• Spark therapeutics (ONCE) closed UP +$2.17 – miss;

Today’s Bottom Line:

You’re seeing investors itch their heads in confusion as traders expand volatility associated with uncertainty

Out and about:

Asterias Biotherapeutics (NYSEMKT: AST) jumped + 5.98% or +$0.22 to $3.90, almost five times its industry group.

• The shares climbed to $3.90 from $3.68 in Tuesday’s session.
• Trading volume was 1.759 M shares traded verse 3 month average of 176.58 K shares ten times the average for this time of day.
• Asterias' move compares with the 1.9% rise in the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index and the 0.4% gain in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.
• Cash balance as of 6/30 was $32.2M
• The market cap was 177.13 M compared to an enterprise value of $139.14 M
• The stock is 58% below the consensus one- year target price.
• AST returned 6.4% so far this year and a loss of 24% in the past 52 weeks.
• Shares short were 1.13 M of the float of 16.45 M shares; the short ratio was 12.36% with the short interest percent of the float being 6.68%

Opexa (OPXA) investors dumped -21.27% or -$0.87 to $3.22 ahead of Roche data presentation for MS candidate ocrelizumab;

• Volume was also up 482.98 K shares traded versus 3 month average of 74.89 K share 
• The sell-off is concocted and to be realized over concerns that Roche's (OTCQX: RHHBY) multiple sclerosis (MS) candidate OCREVUS (ocrelizumab) will hit the U.S. market before Tcelna.
• If, indeed, this is the reason for the exodus, investors must have been asleep for some time. The FDA's action date (PDUFA) for the BLA is December 28, announced in June.
• OPXA has not filed its marketing application yet. Top-line data from a P2b study, Abili-T, are expected in Q4.
• An upcoming data presentation may be the real reason for the bearish activity. On October 10, results from Roche's P3 study, ORATORIO, will be presented at the 31st Congress of the European Committee for Treatment and Research in Multiple Sclerosis in Barcelona. The study involved patients with primary progressive MS. The study met its primary endpoint, a statistically valid reduction in the progression of clinical disability compared to placebo.
• The primary endpoint of Opexa's Abili-T is the percent change in brain volume at Month 24 measured by MRI. The indication is secondary progressive MS. If Roche's ocrelizumab is approved for primary progressive MS, it will be used to treat secondary progressive MS so Abili-T's top-line data need to be impressive

Stemline Therapeutics (STML) rose 8.45% or +$0.73  to $9.37 ...

• The shares climbed to $9.34 from $8.64 in Tuesday’s session. Trading volume was almost double the average for this time of day.
• STML' move compares with the 1.1% rise in the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index and almost no move in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.
• Cash balance reflects $58.1M as of 6/30
• The market cap is $179.14 M versus the enterprise value is $95.82 M
• The stock is 71% below the consensus one- year target price.
• STML returned 48% so far this year and a loss of 11% in the past 52 weeks.
• Short interest was 2.5 times STML's average daily trading and represented 3.7% of the shares available as of the last Q’s filing.

Review my fear gauge or the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX):

• Wednesday traded  18.14 – 1.18% lower
• Tuesday traded at 18.74 – 24% higher;
• Monday traded 15.7 – 13% lower;
• Friday traded 16.4 – 30% higher;
• Thursday traded 12.2;
• Wednesday traded 11.94;
• Last Tuesday traded near 12.2;

Decliners:

• Opexa (OPXA) -21.27%;
• Northwest Bio (NWBO) 8.23% after Tuesday’s +42.61% after Monday’s +17.56% or +$0.0597;
• Caladrius (CLBS) -2.54%;
• Neuralstem (CUR) -2.74%;
• BioLife Solutions (BLFS) -2.73% after Tuesday’s +0.67% or +$0.03;

Advancers:

• StemCells (STEM) +12.21%;
• Stemline (STML) +8.45%;
• Bluebird bio (BLUE) +7.91%;
• Asterias Biotherapeutics (NYSEMKT: AST) +5.98% after Tuesday’s-6.36%
• Capricor (CAPR) +4.86%

Flat:                                                            

• Athersys (ATHX) at 1.95;
• Mesoblast (MESO) at $4.50;
• Pluristem (PSTI ) at $1.66;
• ReNeuron (RENE.L) at $2.625;

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.