September 15, 2016 8:14am
…Regarding the current state of the stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy sector
I answer one question; in which company should investors put, keep and commit their money!
Companies in my headlights: SELL – AST, BSTG, CLLS and STML
Where is “our” universe going today? If you don’t know, subscribe and find out!
I say what others won't, so you can do what others can't!
How does the old saying go? It's easier to ask for forgiveness than ask for permission. Maybe it's the other way around. Whatever the case, to the extent I need to, I'm NOT going to ask for forgiveness for what I say – someone NEEDS to speak up and out!
Indexes and ETFs: The IBB (+0.37%), IWM (+0.25%), XBI (+0.34%) and XLV (+0.01%) are UP
The Dow futures are UP +0.33% and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.34%
U.S. stock index futures indicated a higher open on Thursday morning as traders eyed the release of one last big data dump before the U.S. Federal Reserve meets next week to decide on interest rate
European seesawed in morning trade as global markets trod carefully amid nerves over central bank action.
Asian markets traded mixed amid lingering uncertainty over key central bank policy meetings next week, while markets in China, Taiwan and South Korea were closed for public holidays.
Data docket: Initial claims, PPI, retail sales, the Empire State survey and Philadelphia Fed survey are all set to come out at 8:30 a.m. ET. Industrial production is due at 9:15 a.m., while business inventories will be released at 10:00 a.m.
- This last big blast of data before the Fed meets next week could stir up a final debate about whether there's a September rate hike in the offing.
The stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCG&RT) sector closed POSITIVE on Wednesday, NEGATIVE on Tuesday, POSITIVE on Monday, NEGATIVE on Friday, POSITIVE on Thursday and last Wednesday.
The SCG&RT sector’s record after the last 5 days (of 43 covered companies):
- Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 13 decliners, 26 advancers and 4 flats;
- Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 34 decliners, 5 advancers and 4 flats;
- Monday closed POSITIVE with 11 decliners, 30 advancers and 2 flats;
- Friday closed NEGATIVE with 37 decliners, 5 advancers and 1 flat;
- Last Thursday closed POSITIVE with 4 decliners, 35 advancers and 4 flats;
Remembering Wednesday’s closing post, “Investing is a GAME of cards … investors need to NOT play bad hands or portfolio holdings – ask for a new one. Themes, rotate, sell and buy, then rotate again until the portfolio basket has ripened.
Sector sentiment is fragile … adding a high degree of uncertainty over what fuels volatility in the market?
Talking about cards … How many companies are replays of the “House of Cards” Netflix show? I'm interested in putting an amount of humor into “our” universe and its pricing and the analogy of playing cards just happen to be a perfect medium for my message.
Volume picked-up Wednesday:
- As volatility in the downside range was –0.06% to 21.27%
- While the upside volatility spread range was +0.11% to 11.45%.
As compared the slide on Tuesday:
- As volatility in the downside ranged from –0.26% to 31.77%
- While the upside volatility spread ranged from +0.11% to 42.61%.
Look at the increases in the downside volatility during the last two days; beginning -0.06% to -31.77%. While the upside volatility compared +0.11% to +42.61%.
- What does it say to me … after the hop-scotch week, who is willing in their right mind to be LONG – the pricing boulders are weakening on “Sentiment Mountain”!
Until we get some optimism, the path of least resistance is lower. Traders love the sector at the … moment as they manipulate the oversold to the overbought and back again …
- The question is whether investors should be fearful, especially in a sector that has so many readily visible hot spots seemingly about to be dampened by a burst of a selling firehose.
And so it goes; news breaks, data is digested and investors react. Traders might be right with the recent spasms of volatility while others might be emotional — or just taking profit.
You’ve made it to the office, turned on the monitor, having just gotten your coffee and it hits you - what could be today’s trades?
Watch list:
- The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) closed Wednesday up +1.17% and is UP +0.37% in Thursday’s pre-market;
- The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) closed Wednesday up +2.45% and is UP +0.34% in Thursday pre-market;
- The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) closed flat Wednesday and is UP +0.01% in Thursday’s pre-market;
- The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) closed up +0.02% on Wednesday and is UP +0.25% in Thursday’s pre-market.
Companies in my headlights:
Asterias Biotherapeutics (NYSEMKT: AST) closed UP +$0.22 to $3.90 after being down -$0.25 to $3.68. An experimental stem cell therapy developed by Asterias Biotherapeutics restored some movement to patients paralyzed by recent spinal cord injuries, according to interim data from a small study presented on Wednesday. One of the five patients in the trial regained use of both arms and hands, and is now able to feed himself, send texts on a phone and operate a wheelchair. Three months after the cells were implanted; the study met its efficacy goal of two patients regaining return of two motor levels of functioning on at least one side of their body. All five people in the study have experienced some upper extremity improvement so far. Each motor level function measurement correlates with a reduction in the assistance and care a paralyzed patient might require. A two-level improvement can mean a patient is able to live more independently. The cells are injected by a neurosurgeon directly into the site of the spinal cord damage within two to four weeks of injury, before scar tissue forms. The hope is that they can help restore signals from the brain through the spinal cord to the outer extremities. AST had not expected to reach the efficacy goal before six to 12 months after implantation of the 10 million embryonic stem cells dubbed AST-OPC1. The aftermarket indication is positive +$0.20 – Maintaining BUY;
Biostage (BSTG) closed DOWN -$0.015 to $1.00. Will it be a good week on the NYC meeting “tour” post Rodman Renshaw’s Wainright conference? The past five sessions say it all: $1.00, $1.02, $1.09, $1.10 and $1.12. Where is the pricing support from the previous $1.76 pricing? The warrants from that “raise” are now coming due to be registered; historically, a share offering <burdened by warrants> will be sold and the warrants clipped with a short initiated. Can BSTG recover IF they can’t hold on to gains in a day trading oriented “market” especially when they NEED another “raise” of offering by Q1/17 -HOLD to SELL;
Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed UP +$0.72 to $25.48 following Tuesday’s drop of -$1.19 to $24.76. It’s a crap shoot, looks sketchy to me which means it could go either way. The aftermarket indication is negative -$0.09 – Maintaining SELL;
Stemline (STML) closed UP +$0.73 to $9.37. The chart is “peaky” while the roll of pricing is fractionated after Tuesday’s $9.01 and Monday’s $8.30 following last week’s Friday $8.30, Thursday’s $9.16 and last Wednesday’s $8.59. TOO sketchy – SELL;
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
