October 14, 2016 4:45pm

 

… Since the sector has been purposefully inoculated with a downside trading infection

 

Pre-open indication’s tally:  3 hit (BSTG, FATE and VCEL) and 2 miss (AGTC and XON)

Out and about: Adverum (ADVM) gets a new CEO; AxoGen (AXGN) closed its offering of $18.62 M; bluebird bio (BLUE) gets downgraded and hammered and Spark Therapeutics’ (ONCE) pricing dumps after clinical data release

 

I answer one question; in which company should investors put, keep and commit their money!

 

Do you care what happened today, you could have known … because it has implications to Monday's sector activity?   Subscribe or lose!

 

I say what others won't, so you can do what others can't!

 

 

There are two things that investors need - interpretation of news and translation of market metrics concerning the stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy sector to substantiate share pricing.

 

 

Stocks closed mostly higher on Friday as investors digested a speech from a key Fed official while parsing through strong bank earnings and U.S. economic data.

The NASDAQ closed UP +0.83 or +0.02% to 5,214.16 and the DOW closed UP +39.44 or +0.22% to 18,138.38.

 

 

A day in the life of the stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCGT & RT) sector – the advance/decline line scenario of our 43 covered companies:   

  • The open was positive with an A/DL of 23/14 and 6 flats;
  • The mid-day slipped negative with an A/DL of 14/28 and 1 flat;
  • The closing bell  was negative with A/DL of 12/29 and 2 flats;

 

 

Out and about:

Adverum Biotech (ADVM) closed DOWN -$0.10 to $3.56 …

  • ADVM appoints former CEO Paul Cleveland as Executive Chairman; Amber Salzman promoted to CEO;
  • Salzman joined Adverum as President and Chief Operating Officer in 2016 after the combination of Annapurna Therapeutics with Avalanche Biotechnologies – now Adverum. She served as co-founder, president and Chief Executive Officer of Annapurna Therapeutics prior to the combination.

 

 

AxoGen (AXGN) closed FLAT at $8.72 …

  • AXGN closed on its offering on 10/13/16, and received net proceeds of $18.62 M from the sale of 2,683,334 shares, which includes the additional 350 K shares, after deducting the underwriting discounts and commissions and estimated offering expenses;
  • AXGN intends to use the net proceeds from this Offering for general working capital purposes and expanded development of nerve repair markets and products. However, the management will retain broad discretion over the allocation of the net proceeds … hopefully; the debt on the books will be addressed.

 

 

bluebird bio (BLUE) closed DOWN -$8.67 to $56.57 …

  • BLUE got downgraded by Cantor Fitzgerald joining UBS, RBC, GS and Tucker Anthony Sutro after Maxim and Morgan Stanley initiate in past months

 

 

Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed DOWN -$1.21 to $55.70 …

  • ONCE presented data at the American Academy of Ophthalmology 2016 Annual Meeting reinforce efficacy & durability of voretigene neparvovec (VN) in RPE65-mediated inherited retinal disease.
  • One year after administration, the mean improvement among all nine subjects, as measured by the primary endpoint, a multi-luminance mobility test was 2.1 lux levels.
  • Dr. Maguire also presented data that showed that the original intervention group subjects who received VN maintained improvement demonstrated at year one, as measured in MLMT and full-field light sensitivity threshold testing, for at least two years. The mean MLMT improvement of 1.9 lux levels was sustained after two years.
  • Results from the ongoing P3 trial of show that 93% of subjects include those in the original control group who crossed over to receive intervention, demonstrated a gain in functional vision, and maintained that improvement over one year following the procedure.
  • For the first time, Dr. Maguire presented data on visual field, another protocol-specified endpoint in the P3 trial. VF is total field area of a person's retinal sensitivity, or vision that extends from a central fixation point to the periphery. Data collected using two VF measures showed statistically significant responses.
  • Using the Goldmann III4e test stimulus, the intervention group saw a mean increase of 302.1 sum total degrees from baseline at year one, while the control group saw a mean decrease of 76.7 sum total degrees, resulting in a difference of 387.7 sum total degrees (nominal p=0.006). Additionally, using the Humphrey macula threshold measure, the visual field increased by a mean of 7.7 decibels from baseline for the intervention group, compared to a decrease of 0.2 dB for the control group, resulting in a difference of 7.9 dB.
  • Safety results in the clinical program have been consistent to date. No serious adverse events have been observed.
  • There was one SAE in one eye of a P3 crossover group subject, which was determined to be related to the surgical procedure, rather than to the product candidate.

 

 

Henry’omics:

The stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCGT&RT) sector opened positive, stayed negative at the mid-day and closed negative.

  • Friday, the Dow rose more than 150 points before holding about 60 points higher while the S&P 500 rose approximately 0.1% and the NASDAQ held just above the flatline +0.83, as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) fell more than 1.86%.

As I stated in the pre-open letter, “what moves the needle? After all the past three session’s volatility, it’s still a risk-on scenario.”

  • Also, remember … Thursday’s closing post, the “sector suffers lethargy – a lack of enthusiasm.  Stocks rise, stocks slip, swiftly flow the days … pullbacks offer an opportunity to provide fuel to propel the sector to its past pricing and the incremental upside from these ‘dog days’ ”

I keep telling investors in the a.m. to check the indexes:  

  • The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) indicated a positive pre-open +0.41%, and was DOWN -0.41% at the close while the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) did NOT indicate a and closed DOWN -1.86% at the close.

 

 

Look close at today and the past days – trading ranges - I see patterns evolving as technicals and fundamentals matter … yet they seem over-ridden as:

The downside trend reflects a pricing trend range of

  • Friday’s decline ranged from to -0.53% to -13.29% in twenty-nine (29) equities
  • Thursday’s decline ranged  from -0.23% to -5.95% in thirty-one (31) equities;
  • Wednesday decline ranged -0.73% to -8.89% in thirty-six (36) equities;
  • Tuesday’s decline ranged from -0.76%  to -14.95% in thirty-two (32) equities;
  • Monday’s decline ranged from -0.00 to -10.45% in ten (10) equities
  • Last Friday’s -0.06% to -14.55% in 28 equities;

 

The upside shows a pricing trend range of

  • Friday’s upside ranged from +0.52% to +3.95% in twelve (12) equities;
  • Thursday’s upside ranged  from +0.12% to +3.84% in nine (9) equities;
  • Wednesday’s upside ranged +0.44% to +11.68% in six (6) equities;
  • Tuesday’s upside ranged from +0.22% to +8.15% in ten (10) equities;
  • Monday’s +0.47% to +10.07% in thirty-three (33) equities;
  • Last Friday’s +0.11% to 12.63% in 15 equities;

 

Wrap-up: The day’s sector <43 companies> 12 gains were LEAN with increasing volume on Friday, while the downside trading ranges were HIGHER also with increasing volume than the previous sessions … as the number of downside companies also decreased by a hair as the sector’s overbought were recognized  …

When trading ranges speaks to the patterns!

 

 

 

Pre-market indication review:  3 hit and 2 miss:

  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed DOWN -$0.22 – miss;
  • Biostage (BSTG) closed DOWN - $0.0019 – hit;
  • Intrexon (XON) closed DOWN -$0.61 –miss;
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE) closed UP +$0.02 – hit;
  • Vericel (VCEL) closed UP +$0.02 – hit;

 

Percentage decliners:

  • bluebird bio (BLUE) -13.29%;
  • Bellicum Pharma (BLCM) -8.64%;
  • Regenxbio (RGNX) -4.36%;
  • Fibrocell (FCSC) -4.21%;
  • Verastem (VSTM) -4.20% after Thursday’s -4.03%;

 

Percentage advancers:

  • Capricor (CAPR) +3.95%;
  • Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) +2.04%;
  • ImmunoCellular (NYSEMKT: IMUC) +1.82$ after Thursday’s -3.72%
  • Opexa (OPXA) +1.59%;
  • Stemline (STML) +1.27% after Thursday’s -1.41%

 

Flat:                                                                                                      

  • AxoGen (AXGN) at $8.72;
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L) at $2.50

 

 

Review my fear gauge or the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX):

  • Friday traded near 15.7;
  • Thursday traded near 17  - a +7.31% increase;
  • Wednesday traded above 15.5;
  • Tuesday traded 15.9 – a +18.6% increase;
  • Monday traded near 13.4;
  • Last Friday traded near 13.4;

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.