October 20, 2016 6:54am

 

… Investors are screwed by time horizons as traders say forget the near and long-term

While return on investment (ROI) seems like a contradiction of terms in “our’ universe …

 

BUY: BLUE, JUNO, KITE, and ONCE

SELL: ONVO

 

I answer one question; in which company should investors put, keep and commit their money!

 

Where is “our” universe going today?  If you are not a subscriber, you won’t know the morning’s indications and who is in the headlights.

 

I write in every line that investors need to avoid risks as if I was the first to be hurt if I am wrong!

 

 

RegMed Investors’ willingness to provide the facts in evidence gets results that classify’s reality and veracity. 

 

 

Indexes and ETFs: The IBB (-0.73%) is DOWN while the XLV, XBI and IWM are NOT indicating  

Dow futures are UP +0.19% and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.14%

 

 

U.S. stock index futures pointed to a higher open on Thursday morning as traders eyed developments at the European Central Bank (ECB), a host of earnings, and digested Wednesday evening's third and final presidential debate.

European markets were slightly lower in morning trade amid some disappointing earnings and as investors pause for breath ahead of a European Central Bank (ECB) meeting later in the day.

Asian markets were mostly higher as the Mexican peso strengthened against the dollar on Thursday following the conclusion of the final U.S. Presidential debate.

 

Data docket: initial claims and the Philly Fed survey are due at 8:30 a.m. ET, with existing home sales and leading indicators set to be released at 10:00 a.m.

 

 

The stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCG&RT) sector closed POSITIVE on Tuesday, NEGATIVE on Monday, Friday, Thursday and last Wednesday.

The SCG&RT sector’s record after the last 5 days (of 43 covered companies):

  • Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 14 advancers and 3 flat
  • Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 27 advancers and 4 flats;
  • Monday closed NEGATIVE with 34 decliners, 7 advancers and 2 flats;
  • Friday closed NEGATIVE with 29 decliners, 12 advancers and 2 flats;
  • Last Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 31 decliners, 9 advancers and 3 flats;

 

 

Remembering Wednesday’s closing post, “As I had stated on Tuesday, when the sector ran higher … the daily trade was very short-term trending and traders will get very ‘grabby” – so went Wednesday.”

  • The stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCG&RT) sector has lost its grip on rallies in the past months;
  • Unfortunately for investors, the SCG&RT sector – these past two weeks haven’t been able to hold on to gains.

It clear what’s driving the roller-coaster pattern – fear, risk, uncertainty and playing the spread, as the sector has been trading in relatively narrow ranges lately.

Review the last three (3) day’s:

  • Wednesday’s decline ranged from -0.29 to -7.69% in twenty-seven (27) equities;
  • Tuesday’s decline from -0.24% to -6.58% in twelve (12) equities;
  • Monday’s decline ranged from –0.05% to –10.07%  in thirty-four (34) equities;

As compared to:

  • Wednesday’s upside ranged from +0.24% to 14.34% in sixteen (16) equities;
  • Tuesday’s upside ranged from +0.24% to +11.24% in twenty-seven (27) equities;
  • Monday upside ranged from +0.12 to +4.66% in seven (7) equities

 

Of course, obvious reasons for investors’ reluctance to commit to a rally include concerns about the soon to start financial results/ earnings releases as investors and companies fret over their ability to re-capitalize,  the timing in the market and effects of pricing, dilution and size of offerings.

 

 

You’ve made it to the office, turned on the monitor, having just gotten your coffee and it hits you - what could be today’s trades? 

Watch list:

  • The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) closed Wednesday day down -0.72% and is DOWN -0.73% in Thursday’s pre-market;
  • The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) closed Wednesday down -1.79% and is UP +0.07% in Thursday pre-market;
  • The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) closed down -0.37% Wednesday and is DOWN -0.09% in Thursday’s pre-market;
  • The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) closed up +0.42% on Wednesday and is NOT indicating in Thursday’s pre-market.

 

 

Companies in my headlights:

bluebird bio (BLUE) closed DOWN -$2.10 to $52.80. It hasn’t been a good week for BLUE with a trading range starting Monday  at $55.50 with a week’s total of 3.82 M shares traded >3 month volume = 1.22 M> - a whole lot of volume for three (3) days while Friday generated 4.1 M shares and volume in October so far has been “running” large having an inititing price of $67.92. The last time we saw the $52’s was 9/6. As I had stated, let BLUE “dangle” to when it could develop some strength. The aftermarket is positive +$0.10. Oversold – BUY;

Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) closed DOWN -$1.17 to $26.56. Another oversold equity, having seen October start at $29.80, September at $29.29, August at $30.86 and July at $40.69. The sector and market has ridden the roller-coaster as news has also been dependent on the “issues” of others i.e. Kite Pharma (KITE). However, the CAR-T companies were tarnished but, the comebacks will be “quickened” if the FDA allows a commercial launch. It’s still early and if there is a signal … the oversold will be elevated to their true value. The aftermarket indication is positive +$0.19 – BUY;

Kite Pharma (KITE) closed DOWN -$3.74 to $45.92. KITE has felt the downside bumps as the week started at $49.50 after last week’s range of $49.30 to $57.74. October started priced at $55.09, September at $58.87 and August at $57.03. What new therapy has not experienced deaths but, safety remains a critical concern for the potential success of KTE-C19. KITE updated results from the P1 portion of its ZUMA-1 clinical trial of its KTE-C19 in patients with chemorefractory, aggressive non-Hodgkin lymphoma, at the ESMO 2016 (KITE) : "These data complement recently reported interim topline results from ZUMA-1 P2 and support the potential for KTE-C19 to be a breakthrough therapy for chemorefractory, aggressive NHL ... with the complete remission rate of 43%in the P1 portion of the study continues through month 12 and look forward to reporting additional data on the durability of response to KTE-C19 from the P2 portion of ZUMA-1 in 2017." The aftermarket indication is positive +$0.58. Oversold - BUY;

Organovo (ONVO) closed DOWN -$0.50 to $3.49. ONVO proposed an offering after the close. Historically, the downside will be accentuated. The aftermarket indication is negative -$0.50 or -14.33% - SELL;

Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed DOWN -$2.52 to $51.39. Oversold as the sector has ridden the roller-coaster’s downs and very few ups. The week started Monday at $53.63 while last week’s range was $63.18 (the previous Monday) to $55.70 (last Friday’s). October started at $60.78, September at $57.55 and August at $58.87 – as there have been a number of financings that depreciated pricing and little momentum moving news.  ONCE had presented data at the American Academy of Ophthalmology 2016 Annual Meeting reinforcing efficacy and the durability of voretigene neparvovec (VN) in RPE65-mediated inherited retinal disease.  One year after administration, the mean improvement among all nine subjects, as measured by the primary endpoint, a multi-luminance mobility test was 2.1 lux levels. Anytime you get a p-value of .006, something must be happening!  As I had stated, sustaining the improvement at 2 years is a big deal and the visual field improvement is important – Maintaining BUY;

 

 

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Henry’s comments are for informational purposes only and are not a substitute for personalized advice. Consult your advisor about what is best for you.