October 21, 2016 7:18am
… A lack of trust jeopardizes financing the future and I’m never reliant on being too long over weekends
Some of that burden would be lifted if investors could operate on conviction and less promised faith
BUY: BLUE, CLLS, KITE,
I answer one question; in which company should investors put, keep and commit their money!
Where is “our” universe going today? If you are not a subscriber, you won’t know the morning’s indications and who is in the headlights.
I write in every line that investors need to avoid risks as if I was the first to be hurt if I am wrong!
RegMed Investors’ willingness to provide the facts in evidence gets results that classify reality and veracity.
Indexes and ETFs: The IBB (+0.39%) and XLV (+0.47%) are UP while the, XBI and IWM are NOT indicating
Dow futures are DOWN -0.34%% and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.13%
U.S. stock index futures pointed to a lower open on Friday morning as traders eyed several big earnings reports and anticipated comments from Fed speakers.
European stocks were higher after the European Central Bank (ECB) quashed talk regarding its future monetary policy, sending the euro to its lowest point since March and dampening risk appetite.
Asian Asia were lower across the board, while traders digested data showing China's home prices climbed and as a typhoon shut down the Hong Kong market and caused casualties and destruction in the Philippines and an earthquake struck Japan.
Data docket: Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo is set to speak at the Columbia Law School Conference in New York at 10:15 a.m. ET. San Francisco Fed President John Williams is due to speak at 2:30 p.m. ET at the Federal Home Loan Bank's Member Conference in San Francisco.
The stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCG&RT) sector closed POSITIVE on Tuesday, NEGATIVE on Monday, Friday, Thursday and last Wednesday.
The SCG&RT sector’s record after the last 5 days (of 43 covered companies):
· Thursday closed POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 25 advancers and 2 flats;
· Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 14 advancers and 3 flat
· Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 27 advancers and 4 flats;
· Monday closed NEGATIVE with 34 decliners, 7 advancers and 4 flats;
· Last Friday closed NEGATIVE with 29 decliners, 12 advancers and 2 flats;
Remembering Thursday’s closing post, “Whether you like it or not, volatility can be your friend as trends go. Financial results/earnings are going to be one of the main pricing factors as we head into the end of the year and Q1/17
What did we see from what I said after Thursday’s close – “A simple buy-and-hold philosophy toward “our’ universe does NOT work. Investors HAVE to be tactical, well informed and be on the lookout for daily situations to make any money in this market.
- Investors are increasingly of the view that stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCG&RT) sector fundamentals have deteriorated.
I cite disappointing drug trials, a lack of pipeline catalysts, heightened CEO pay, trading pressures, and loss-per-share <earnings> growth that appears more dependent on massaging the narrative or the lack thereof.
- The lack of investor confidence and trading has altered the sector’s fundamental value proposition.
I believe that poor stock performance and investor sentiment may be engendering a “glass half empty” view toward fundamentals that are largely unchanged relative to three years ago when investors were touting “our” universe for its innovation cycle and the hope and optimism that engendered the formation of many companies.
- I expect Q3 to undermine the notion that the SCG&RT’s outlook and value proposition will be diminished relative to biotech sector.
The telling issue is sentiment and the capacity of many sector “participants” to finance their future without selling their investors down the river.
You’ve made it to the office, turned on the monitor, having just gotten your coffee and it hits you - what could be today’s trades?
Watch list:
· The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) closed Thursday up +0.96% and is UP +0.36% in Friday’s pre-market;
· The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) closed Thursday up +1.82% and is UP +0.39% in Friday pre-market;
· The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) closed up +0.47% Thursday and is UP +0.47%% in Friday’s pre-market;
· The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) closed down -0.30% on Thursday and is NOT indicating in Friday’s pre-market.
Companies in my headlights:
bluebird bio (BLUE) closed UP +$1.90 to $54.65 after Thursday’s $52.80 (-$2.10). yesterday was a good day but, it hasn’t been a good week for BLUE with a trading range starting Monday at $55.50 with a week’s total of 3.82 M shares traded >3 month volume = 1.22 M> - a whole lot of volume for three (3) days while Friday generated 4.1 M shares and volume in October so far has been “running” large having an initiating price of $67.92. The last time we saw the $52’s was 9/6. As I had stated, let BLUE “dangle” to when it could develop some strength. The aftermarket is positive +$0.45. Oversold – Maintaining BUY;
Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed DOWN -$0.49 to $19.06 after Wednesday’s FLAT at $19.55 post Tuesday’s $19.55 (-$0.36), Monday’s $21.51 and last Friday’s $22.09. 9/1’s $26.40 followed 8/1’s $27.10 post 7/1’s $27.25 and 6/1’s $32.51. Might be time to play the past value card. Oversold – Maintaining BUY;
Kite Pharma (KITE) closed DOWN -$0.60 To $45.32 after Thursday $45.92 (-$3.74). KITE has felt the downside bumps as the week started at $49.50 after last week’s range of $49.30 to $57.74. October started priced at $55.09, September at $58.87 and August at $57.03. What new therapy has not experienced deaths but, safety remains a critical concern for the potential success of KTE-C19. KITE updated results from the P1 portion of its ZUMA-1 clinical trial of its KTE-C19 in patients with chemorefractory, aggressive non-Hodgkin lymphoma, at the ESMO 2016 (KITE) : "These data complement recently reported interim topline results from ZUMA-1 P2 and support the potential for KTE-C19 to be a breakthrough therapy for chemorefractory, aggressive NHL ... with the complete remission rate of 43%in the P1 portion of the study continues through month 12 and look forward to reporting additional data on the durability of response to KTE-C19 from the P2 portion of ZUMA-1 in 2017." The aftermarket indication is positive +$0.65. Oversold – Maintaining BUY;
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Henry’s comments are for informational purposes only and are not a substitute for personalized advice. Consult your advisor about what is best for you.
