October 21, 2016 5:03pm

 

… As operating costs rise and a stretch to financing cloak share pricing

Also remember it’s an option and equity expiration Friday within seasonally weak period

 

Pre-open indication’s tally:  1 hit (KITE) and 2 miss (BLUE and CLLS)

Out and about: Northwest Biotherapeutics (NWBO) proposes 14 M share RDO at $0.38 to raise $5 M

 

 

I answer one question; in which company should investors put, keep and commit their money!

 

 

Do you care what happened today, you could have known … because it has implications to Monday's sector activity?   Subscribe or lose!

It's a daunting task to understand risk, seeing the unforeseen; on the basis of my own code of reliability, I have one rule: I eat my own cooking and I speak to my “concerns”! 

 

 

There are two things that investors need - interpretation of news and translation of market metrics concerning the stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy sector to substantiate share pricing.

 

 

Stocks closed mostly flat on Friday amid a strong dollar and as earnings season continued.

The NASDAQ closed UP +15.57 or +0.30% to 5,257.40 and the DOW closed DOWN -16.64 or -0.09% to 18,145.71.  

 

 

A day in the life of the stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCGT & RT) sector – the advance/decline line scenario of our 43 covered companies:   

·         The open was negative with an A/DL of 9/27 and 7 flats;

·         The mid-day continued to dive  with an A/DL of 16/24 and 3 flats;

·         The closing bell  was negative with A/DL of 17/23 and 3 flats;

 

 

Henry’omics:

The stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCGT&RT) sector opened negative, stayed negative at the mid-day and closed negative.

I keep telling investors in the a.m. to check the indexes:  

  • The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) did NOT indicate pre- open number and was DOWN -0.05% at the close while the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) indicated a positive pre-open +0.39% and closed DOWN -0.84%.

Referencing the title, expiration day for equity and index options is the third Friday of the expiration month.

  • An investor with a long equity call or put position may exercise that contract at any time before the contract expires, up to and including the Friday before its expiration. To do so, the investor must notify his brokerage firm of intent to exercise in a manner, and by the deadline specified by that particular firm.

There's more uncertainty surrounding the stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCG&RT) sector. The biggest one is the fact that many are running out of cash to keep the lights on!

  • Market expectations for financings in November <post and con-current financial results/earnings> if they happen will be severely discounted as well as those in December.

 

If you're a trader, there is certainty of correlation to current and expected share pricing. Also what is uncertain are the facts of … how DESPERATE many companies are!

 

 

A simple buy-and-hold philosophy toward “our’ universe does NOT work.

 Investors HAVE to be tactical, well informed and be on the lookout for daily situations to make any money in this market. WHY:

·         Friday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 17 advancers and 3 flats;

·         Thursday closed POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 25 advancers and 2 flats;

·         Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 14 advancers and 3 flats;

·         Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 27 advancers and 2 flats;

·         Monday closed NEGATIVE with 34 decliners, 7 advancers and 2 flats;

 

 

What’s tickling value investor's ears is all of the lack of headlines which envelops the uncertainty in the sector while vinegary sentiment toward stock’s pricing stays bitter. Look close at today and the past days – trading ranges - I see patterns:

The downside trend reflects a pricing trend range of:

·         Friday’s decline ranged from -0.24%  to -13.11% in twenty-three (23) equities;

·         Thursday’s decline ranged from -0.31% to -15.19% in sixteen (16) equities;

·         Wednesday’s decline ranged from -0.29 to -7.69% in twenty-seven (27) equities;

·         Tuesday’s decline from -0.24% to -6.58% in twelve (12) equities;

·         Monday’s decline ranged from –0.05% to –10.07%  in thirty-four (34) equities;

·         Last Friday’s decline ranged from -0.53% to -13.29% in twenty-nine (29) equities

 

The upside shows a pricing trend range of:

·         Friday’s advances ranged +0.24% to +4.26% in seventeen (17) equities;

·         Thursday’s upside ranged from +0.51% to +6.94% in twenty-five (25) equities;

·         Wednesday’s upside ranged from +0.24% to 14.34% in sixteen (16) equities;

·         Tuesday’s upside ranged from +0.24% to +11.24% in twenty-seven (27) equities;

·         Monday upside ranged from +0.12 to +4.66% in seven (7) equities

·         Last Friday’s upside ranged from +0.52% to +3.95% in twelve (12) equities;

 

Wrap-up: Thursday’s sector <43 companies> 17 gains increased from Thursday’s 25 with so-so  volume;  while Friday’s  downside of 23 compared to Thursday’s 16 with moderate volume … as the number of upside companies decreased by 8 as the sector’s overbought  were recognized  …

 

 

Pre-market indication review:  1 hit and 2 miss:

  • bluebird bio (BLUE) closed DOWN -$1.05 – miss;
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed DOWN -$0.06 – miss;
  • Kite Pharma (KITE) closed UP +$1.69 – hit;

 

 

Out and about:

Northwest Biotherapeutics (NWBO) proposes 14 M share RDO at $0.38 to raise $5 M

·         NWBO has entered into a definitive agreement with an institutional investor for a registered direct offering with gross proceeds of approximately $5 M.

·         NWBO closed DOWN -$0.07 to $0.467

 

 

My pet peeve:

High-frequency trading accounted for 52% of October's daily trading volume of about 6.22 billion shares <TABB Group>.

·         During the peak levels of high-frequency trading in 2009, about 61% of 9.8 billion of average daily shares traded were executed by high-frequency traders.

 

 

Back-and-forth pricing ends the week. One day, you get a strong upside, and then the next a dive and then another dump.

There's just no clear path as weakness is all about trading than the fundamentals of a company.

 

Percentage decliners:

·         Northwest Bio (NWBO) -13.11%;

·         International Stem Cell (ISCO) -10.27%;

·         Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) -8.33%;

·         Adverum (ADVM) -6.25%;

·         Fate Therapeutics (FATE) -4.60%

 

 

Percentage advancers:

·         Vericel (VCEL) +4.26% after Thursday’s -6%;

·         Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) +3.87%;

·         Kite Pharma (KITE) +3.73%;

·         Cesca Therapeutics (KOOL) +6.68%;

·         Fibrocell (FCSC) +2.87%

 

 

Flat:                                                                                                      

·         AxoGen (AXGN) at $8.95;

·         Opexa (OPXA) at $3.45;

·         ReNeuron  (RENE.L) at $2.375;

 

 

Review my fear gauge or the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX):

·         Friday traded near 13.5;

·         Thursday traded near 13.9

·         Wednesday traded near 14.3;

·         Tuesday traded near 15;

·         Monday traded near 16.5;

·         Last Friday traded near 15.7;

                                                                                                              

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.