RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell analysis, volatility heightens

October 31, 2016 5:06pm

The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) has fallen -1.46% today and 11% this month — and could be headed lower

I still maintain an investor wait and see outlook as sector expectation is remodeled – issues:  trading’s dominance and impact, quarterly reporting, the Fed and the FBI

I answer one question; in which company should investors put, keep and commit their money!

Out and about: Capricor (CAPR) falls after positive news, trouble in LALA land, ImmunoCellular Therapeutics (NYSEMKT: IMUC) lock-up expires,

Lose an advantage or be a subscriber!  Today’s results have implications to Tuesday's sector activity.  

There are two things that investors need - interpretation of news and translation of market metrics concerning the stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy sector to substantiate share pricing.

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.

U.S. equities traded in a narrow range on Monday, gyrating between slight gains and losses as an investigation into new Hillary Clinton emails kept investors on edge.

The NASDAQ closed DOWN -0.97 or -0.02% to 5,189.13 and the DOW closed DOWN -17.81 or -0.10% to 18,143.38.  

A day in the life of the stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCGT & RT) sector – the advance/decline line scenario of our 43 covered companies:   

·         The open was negative with an A/DL of 14/26 and 3 flats;

·         The mid-day stayed negative  with an A/DL of 12/27 and 4 flats;

·         The closing bell  was negative with A/DL of 11/32 and 0 flats;

Henry’omics:

The stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCGT&RT) sector opened negative, stayed negative at the mid-day and closed negative.

• Slipping and sliding, another down session– seven (7) and counting! Monday, Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday, las t Monday and the previous Friday and Thursday were DOWN days …

The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) has fallen nearly 11% this month — and could be headed lower. The top holdings in the IBB include giants Celgene, Gilead, Biogen and Amgen. Mylan, which is down nearly 32% this year, comprises nearly 4% of the IBB as its seventh-largest component.

• Reiterating … sector stocks have remained in a tight range over the past month, while the market moved higher, lower and sideways.

As I stated this a.m. – “the market has the heebie-jeebies … bracing for quarterly reporting and another market moving “matter” – political uncertainty.  For sector equities with Election Day a little more than a week away, investors were served a reminder that politics remains a potential source of volatility.”

• The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)did NOT  indicated a pre- open percentage and was UP +0.39% at the close while the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) indicated a positive pre-open +0.39% and closed down -1.46%.

Out and about:

Capricor (CAPR) closed DOWN -$0.34 to $2.91 …

Trouble in LaLa land …?

CAPR had news today re its results from its DYNAMIC clinical trial of CAP-1002 in patients with advanced heart failure (CAPR):

·         The results were featured at a poster session held on Saturday, October 29th at the 28th Transcatheter Cardiovascular Therapeutics, the annual scientific symposium of the Cardiovascular Research Foundation, in Washington, D.C.

·         In DYNAMIC, 14 patients with New York Heart Association Class III heart failure secondary to dilated cardiomyopathy, and who demonstrated a left ventricular ejection fraction =35% despite maximal medical and device-based therapy, were treated with a single administration of CAP-1002.

·         The level of significance for LVEF improvement was maintained at twelve months (p=0.02).

·         Eleven of twelve (92%) patients assessed improved by at least one NYHA Class at six months (p=0.01). All five patients who received the highest dose of CAP-1002 improved. Among this group, at six months three improved by one class to Class II and two improved by two classes to Class I; at 12 months, two were at Class II and three were at Class I, demonstrating further improvement and indicating durability of the benefit of CAP-1002 on heart failure status for as long as 12 months following administration.

ImmunoCellular (NYSEMKT: IMUC) closed UP +$0.0077 at $0.095 …

·         The equity lockup period for ImmunoCellular shares ends in a week following its $5.18 million stock sale.

·         IMUC sold 34.6 million shares at $0.15 on Aug. 9. The deal increased the company's outstanding shares by 37.7%.

·         Since then, the stock has declined 41.8%.

·         IMUC restricted sales by certain shareholders for 90 days.

·         ImmunoCellular Therapeutics fell 75.4% so far this year and declined 77.8% in the past 52 weeks. The stock closed at $0.09 in Friday’s session.

Look close at today and the past days – trading ranges:

The downside trend reflects a pricing trend range of:

·         Monday’s decline ranged from -0.56% to -19.5% in 32 equities;

·         Friday’s declines from -0.43%  to -7.88% <excepting a  -69.12 related to OPXA> in 22 equities;

·         Thursday’s declines ranged from -0.16% to -16.50% in 30 equities;

·         Wednesday’s decliners ranged from -0.24% to -5.36% in 28 equities;

·         Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.20%  to -12.82% in 28 equities;

·         Last Monday’s decliners ranged from  -0.04% to -5.33% in 27 equities;

The upside shows a pricing trend range of:

·         Monday’s advances ranged from +0.55% to +10.25% in 11 equities;

·         Friday’s advances ranged from +0.40% to +5.26% in 16 equities;

·         Thursday’s advancers ranged from +0.24% to 4.48% in 10 equities;

·         Wednesday’s advancers ranged from  +0.14% to +9.09%  in 14 equities;

·         Tuesday’s advancers ranged from +0.31% to +7.89% in 9 equities

·         Last Monday’s advancers ranged from +0.26% to +27.04% in 10 equities;

Wrap-up: Monday’s scoreboard <43 companies reporting> Monday’s 11  gains compared to Friday’s 16 gains related to Thursday’s 10 gains as compared to Wednesday’s 14 versus Tuesday’s  9 gains matched by last Monday’s 10 with so-so volume …

While Monday’s declines of 32 compared to Friday’s 22 gains relates to Thursday’s 30 number defining further weakness backed by Wednesday’s downside of 28 compared to Tuesday’s 28 compared to last Monday’s 27 with moderate volume.

Percentage decliners:

·         Opexa (OPXA) -19.05% after Friday’s -69.12%;

·         Capricor (CAPR) -10.46% after Friday’s +3.83%

·         Vericel (VCEL) -6.38%;

·         Athersys (ATHX) -4.23%;

·         Organovo (ONVO) -4.23% after Friday’s -4.76%;

Percentage advancers:

·         Histogenics (HSGX) +10.25%;

·         ReNeuron (RENE.L) +5%;

·         Northwest Bio (NWBO) +2.79%;

·         ImmunoCellular (NYSEMKT: IMUC) +2.63% after Friday’s -6.38%;

·         Mesoblast (MESO) +2.31%

Flat:                                                                                                      

·         0

Review my fear gauge or the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX):

·         Monday traded near 17.55;

·         Friday traded near 16.9;

·         Thursday traded near 14.9;

·         Wednesday traded near 14.6;

·         Tuesday traded near 13.6. The index was on track to snap a five-day losing streak;

·         Last Monday traded near 13;

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.