RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell analysis, upside lives large yet, the sector still needs to prove itself

November 11, 2016 6:05pm

… With pricing stretches higher while expectation declines – it may be appropriate to take caution

We could be on the brink of peaking …

While Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) talk’s stem cells and regenerative medicine as a priority for the future

I answer one question; in which company should investors put, keep and commit their money!

Pre-open indication’s tally:  3 hit (BLFS, BSTG and CAPR) and 7 miss (ADRO, BLCM, BLUE, JUNO, KITE, RGNX and ONCE) and sellers into strength made money ($)

Lose an advantage or be a subscriber!  Today’s results have implications to Monday's sector activity.  

There are two things that investors need - interpretation of news and translation of market metrics concerning the stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy sector to substantiate share pricing.

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.

U.S. equities closed mostly higher on Friday, with the three major indexes posting their best weekly gains of the year on the back of a surprise Republican sweep.

The NASDAQ closed UP +28.32 or +0.54% to 5,237.11 and the DOW closed UP +39.78 or +0.21% to 18,847.66.  

A day in the life of the stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCGT & RT) sector – the advance/decline line scenario of our 43 covered companies:   

• The open was neutral with an A/DL of 21/21 and 1 flat;
• The mid-day jumped positive with an A/DL of 28/14 and 1 flat – the same as yesterday;
• The closing bell was positive with A/DL of 30/10 and 3 flat – the same as yesterday;

My pet peeve:

• High-frequency trading accounted for 52% of November's daily trading volume of about 8.75 billion shares <TABB Group>.
• During the peak levels of high-frequency trading in 2009, about 61 percent of 9.8 billion of average daily shares traded were executed by high-frequency traders.

Henry’omics:

The stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCGT&RT) sector opened neutral, strayed positive at the mid-day and closed positive.

From this morning’s investor’s letter, “My contrarian “artery” is hemorrhaging.  As quarterly reporting was over-looked, some say luckily, pre-occupied by election outcomes … Cash positions are diminishing and those who need capital market access are going to find investors tougher without strengthening fundamentals.”

• The Dow today closed about +0.21% higher, and rose around 5.4% marking its best weekly performance since December 2011.
• The NASDAQ rose more than half a percent and gained 3.8% for the week, marking its best weekly performance since February.
• The S&P 500 underperformed, falling 0.15% and ended the week about 3.8% higher, posting its highest weekly gain since 2013.

By the close, Fate therapeutics (FATE +$0.78 or +36.28%), Asterias Biotherapeutics (NYSEMKT: AST +$0.80 or +22.22%) and Mesoblast (MESO +$0.41 or +9.60%) contributing the most gains.

The biggest losers of the session were BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.09 or -5.66%), Capricor (CAPR -$0.04 or -1.43%), ImmunoCellular (NYSEMKT: IMUC -$0.0102 or -10.79%), Northwest Bio (NWBO -$0.0334 or -7.13%) Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS -$0.14 or -3.99%) and Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.19 or -0.98%)

• The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) indicated a positive pre- open of +0.15% and closed UP +2.30% while the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indicate a pre-open negative of -1.37% and closed DOWN -0.61%.

This upside swing show just how “soft” pricing has been and this week to date.  The sector has been on a roll – and as I stated … beware!

The downside trend reflects a pricing trend range of:

• Friday’s decliners ranged from -0.61% <CYTX> to -10.79% <IMUC> in 10 equities;
• Thursday’s decliners ranged from -0.03% <CAPR> to -8.61% <HSGX> in 11 equities;
• Wednesday decliners ranged from -0.53% <CLBS> to -8.35% <FCSC> in 8 equities;
• Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.02% <OPXA> to -5.63% <KOOL> in 23 equities;
• Monday’s decline ranged from -0.08% to -14.94% in 13 equities;
• Last Friday’s decline ranged from -0.53% to -6.40% in 8 equities;

The upside shows a pricing trend range of:

• Friday’s gainers ranged from +0.53% <VTGN> to +36.28% <FATE>in 31 equities;
• Thursday’s advancer’s ranged from +0.61% <AXGN> to +46.91% in 30 equities;
• Wednesday’s advancers ranged from +1.06% <VTGN> to +29.79% <AGTC> in 34 equities;
• Tuesday’s advancers ranged from +0.35% <ONVO> to +23.63% <OSIR> in 18 equities;
• Monday’s advancers ranged from +1.03% to +10.41% in 25 equities;
• Last Friday’s advances ranged from +0.01% to +11.06% in 31 equities;

Wrap-up: anybody can read a paragraph … review the percentage changes per day in the week of the decliners and advancers. The shifting correlation of the number of equites inclining versus the decliners hasn’t abated!

Friday’s 31 gainers compared to Thursday’s 30 followed Wednesday’s 34 following Tuesday’s 18 compared to Monday‘s 25 compared to Friday’s 31 from last Thursday’s gains of 5 …

Friday’s 10 decliners followed Thursday’s 11 compared to Wednesday’s 8 following Tuesday’s 24 following Monday’s 13 compared to Friday’s decliners to 8 compared to last Thursday’s 37...

Pre-open indication’s tally:  3 hit (BSTG, BLFS and CAPR) and 7 miss (ADRO, BLCM, BLUE, JUNO, KITE, RGNX and ONCE) but, sellers into strength made money ($)

• Aduro Biotech (ADRO) closed UP +$0.55 – miss;
• Bellicum Pharma (BLCM) closed UP +$1.65 – miss;
• Biostage (BSTG) closed DOWN -$0.00 – hit;
• BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed DOWN -$0.09 – hit;
• bluebird bio (BLUE) closed UP +$2.10 – miss;
• Capricor (CAPR) closed UP +$0.04 – hit;
• Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) closed UP +$1.54 – miss;
• Kite Pharma (KITE) closed UP +$0.60 – miss;                 
• Regenxbio (RGNX) closed UP +$1.00 - miss;
• Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed UP +$3.25 – miss;

Percentage decliners:

• ImmunoCellular (NYSEMKT: IMUC) -10.79%;
• Northwest Bio (NWBO) -7.13%;
• StemCells (STEM) -6.72% after Thursday’s +46.91%;
• BioLife Solutions (BLFS) -5.66%;
• Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS) -3.99% after Thursday’s -5.41%;

Percentage advancers:

• Fate Therapeutics (FATE) +36.28%;
• Asterias Biotherapeutics (NYSEMKT: AST) +22.22%;
• Mesoblast (MESO) +9.60%;
• Bellicum (BLCM) +8.05%;
• Neuralstem (CUR) +6.02%

Flat:                                                                                                      

• Biostage (BSTG) at $0.85;
• Pluristem (PSTI) at $1.53;
• Verastem (VSTM) at $1.25;

Review my fear gauge or the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX):

·         Friday traded near 14.17 – a 3.87% decrease

·         Thursday traded near 14.74;

·         Wednesday traded near 15.6;

·         Tuesday traded near 18.5;

·         Monday traded near 18.6

·         Last Friday traded near 22.5;

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.