November 15, 2016 5:30pm

 

… Speculation is alive and well

 

As the sector’s sentiment splays out in the market

Are we back to the pattern of deep lows and quick highs?

 

 

I answer one question; in which company should investors put, keep and commit their money!

Pre-open indication’s tally:  4 hits (BLCM, JUNO, KITE and ONCE) and 1 miss (BLUE)

 

 

Lose an advantage or be a subscriber!  Today’s results have implications to Wednesday's sector activity.  

 

There are two things that investors need - interpretation of news and translation of market metrics concerning the stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy sector to substantiate share pricing.

 

 

 

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.

 

 

U.S. stocks closed higher on Tuesday, lifted by a sharp rally in energy stocks, while the technology sector rebounded after a post-election sell-off.

The NASDAQ closed UP +57.22 or +1.10% to 5,275.62 and the DOW closed UP +54.37 or +0.29% to 18,923.06.  

 

 

A day in the life of the stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCGT & RT) sector – the advance/decline line scenario of our 43 covered companies:   

  • The open was negative with an A/DL of 11/31 and 1 flat;                       
  • The mid-day stayed negative with an A/DL of 7/35 and 1 flat;
  • The closing bell was negative with A/DL of 13/27 and 3 flat;

 

 

Henry’omics:

Referencing the title, “investors give up any previous gains in stock price by selling equities, in an effort to get out of the market and into less risky investments. Capitulations can only be identified after they have formed, in hindsight.

  • While investors and traders alike often attempt to anticipate capitulation in selling or buying, the reality is that capitulations are outcomes that result from the maximum psychological and financial pain that can be endured by a group before throwing in the towel;

The rule of thumb is that the larger the time frame, the more powerful the capitulation

  • This is because it allows for more participants to engage and determine the outcome.

 

The stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCG&RT) sector opened negative, stayed negative at the mid-day and closed negative.

 

From this morning’s investor’s letter, “the big question until year’s end; of those companies that need capital market access to finance their sustainability.”

  • Reiterating, “Trump won for a reason, no-one listened to the electorate; many management teams will need to “wise-up” and start representing investors.”

The SCG&RT sector traded down on strength in the speculative SCG&RT sector “names” - a sign that the negative sentiment is alive and well, as investors trounced the prospects of unsustainable new highs – right again!

  • The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded -7.6% lower, near 13.4.

 

 

At the close …

  • Gainers included Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS +$042), Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.26 after Monday’s -$0.19 post Friday’s +$0.78), Vericel (VCEL +$0.15), Regenxbio (RGNX +1.00 after Monday’s -$0.30) contributed the most gains;

 

  • The biggest losers of the session were ReNeuron (RENE.L +$0.25), uniQure (QURE -$0.57), Aduro Biotech (ADRO -$0.90) and Stemline (STML -$0.70)

 

  • The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) indicated a positive pre- open of +0.01% and closed UP +0.26% while the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indicate a pre-open positive of +0.27% and closed DOWN -0.60%.

 

 

Today’s downside swing show just how “soft” pricing was this week to date.  The sector had been on a roll post-election – and as I stated … beware!

The downside trend reflects a pricing trend range of:

  • Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.02% <OPXA> to -9.52% <RENE.L> in 27 equities;
  • Monday’s decliners ranged from –o.21% <CLLS> to -6.48% <FATE> in 17 equities;
  • Friday’s decliners ranged from -0.61% <CYTX> to -10.79% <IMUC> in 10 equities;
  • Thursday’s decliners ranged from -0.03% <CAPR> to -8.61% <HSGX> in 11 equities;
  • Wednesday decliners ranged from -0.53% <CLBS> to -8.35% <FCSC> in 8 equities;
  • Last Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.02% <OPXA> to -5.63% <KOOL> in 23 equities;

 

The upside shows a pricing trend range of:

  • Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.58% <AXGN> to +11.11% <CLBS> in 13 equities
  • Monday’s gainers ranged from +0.59% <ATHX> to +15.62% <CAPR> <> in 23 equities;
  • Friday’s gainers ranged from +0.53% <VTGN> to +36.28% <FATE>in 31 equities;
  • Thursday’s advancer’s ranged from +0.61% <AXGN> to +46.91% in 30 equities;
  • Wednesday’s advancers ranged from +1.06% <VTGN> to +29.79% <AGTC> in 34 equities;
  • Last Tuesday’s advancers ranged from +0.35% <ONVO> to +23.63% <OSIR> in 18 equities;

 

Wrap-up: anybody can read a paragraph … review the percentage changes per day in the week of the decliners and advancers. The shifting correlation of the number of equites inclining versus the decliners hasn’t abated!

  • Tuesday’s 13 gainers followed Monday’s 23 after Friday’s 31 compared to Thursday’s 30 followed Wednesday’s 34 following last Tuesday’s 18 …

 

  • Tuesday’s 27 decliners followed Monday’s 17 compared to Friday’s 10 after Thursday’s 11 as compared to Wednesday’s 8 post last Tuesday’s 24...

 

 

Pre-open indication’s tally:  4 hits (BLCM, JUNO, KITE and ONCE) and 1 miss (BLUE)

  • Bellicum Pharma (BLCM) closed DOWN -$0.37 – hit;
  • bluebird bio (BLUE) closed UP +$0.95 – miss;
  • Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) closed DOWN -$0.62 – hit;
  • Kite Pharma (KITE) closed DOWN -$1.73 – miss;
  • Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed DOWN -$0.00 – hit;

 

 

Percentage decliners:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L) -9.52%;
  • uniQure (QURE) -6.87%;
  • Aduro Biotech (ADRO) -5.96%;
  • Stemline (STML) -5.56%
  • Adverum (ADVM) -5.56%;

 

 

Percentage advancers:

  • Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS) 11.11% after Monday’s +12.17% after Friday’s -3.99% after Thursday’s -5.41%;
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE) +9.49% after Monday’s -6.48% after Friday’s +36.28%;
  • Neuralstem (CUR) +6.93% after Monday’s -3.14% after Friday’s +6.02%;
  • Vericel (VCEL) +6.82%;
  • Regenxbio (RGNX) +4.35%

 

 

Flat:                                                                                                      

  • Asterias Biotherapeutics (NYSEMKT: AST) at $4.40;
  • International Stem Cell (ISTO) at $1.78;
  • Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) at $62.63;

 

 

Review my fear gauge or the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX):

·         Tuesday traded near 13.4;

·         Monday traded near 14.9;

·         Friday traded near 14.17 – a 3.87% decrease;

·         Thursday traded near 14.74;

·         Wednesday traded near 15.6;

·         Last Tuesday traded near 18.5;

 

                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                            

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.