RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell analysis, the sector loses control of the upside

December 12, 2016 5:51pm

… CEOs need to take their appreciation fight to investors, personally by talking to not at present and future shareholders!

Populism won the electorate, let’s take the same route and minimize the meddling of algorithms, dark pools and speculative trading

Pre-open indication’s tally:  2 hits (BTX and ONVO) and 1 miss (BSTG)

There are two things that investors need - interpretation of news and translation of market metrics concerning the stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy sector to substantiate share pricing.

I answer one question; in which company should investors put, keep and commit their money!

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't!

Stocks closed mostly lower on Monday despite oil prices soaring as Treasury yields spiked ahead of a key Federal Reserve meeting.

The NASDAQ closed DOWN -31.96 or -0.59% to 5,412.54 and the DOW closed UP +39.58 or +0.20% to 19,796.43.

A day in the life of the stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCGT & RT) sector – the advance/decline line scenario of our 43 covered companies:   

• The open was negative with an A/DL of 17/23 and 3 flats;                     
• The mid-day stayed negative with an A/DL of 11/31 and 1 flat;
• The closing bell was negative with A/DL of 14/27 and 2 flats;

Henry’omics:

The stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCG&RT) sector opened negative, stayed negative at the mid-day and closed negative.

• From this morning’s investor’s letter, “We need some optimism … but, where will it come from, as 2016 ends?  Incremental trading moves aren’t that sustainable …!”

The stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCG&RT) sector doesn’t have a cushion in this market, but ... there are still a few spiking up on shallow news and you have others that are just going to keep investors guarded.

• The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) indicated a negative pre- open of -0.22% and closed UP +1.72%; the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indicated a negative -0.26% in the pre-open and closed UP +0.54%.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 12.6.

• Since 11/8, the major indexes have risen at least 4.5%, with the small-caps Russell 2000 soaring more than 15%. The Dow, meanwhile, has posted 15 record closes since then and gains in 21 of the past 25 sessions.

Everyone is second guessing what a Trump presidency will mean to the pharma, biotech and its young niece – cell therapy and nephew – regenerative medicine as some in the financial markets think that Trump’s personality is a match to kindling that could spell more growth and possibly inflation.

In our specific interest that outlook is dependent on the whether he will address the pricing vagaries of drug and device companies of which “our” universe is dependent to some degree if not now but, to the future!

At the close …

3 biggest $ gainers included:

• Kite Pharma (KITE) +$1.95;
• Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) -0.66;
• Bluebird bio (BLUE) -$0.50

The 3 biggest $ losers of the session were:

• Intrexon (XON) -$1.40;
• Stemline (STML) -1.10;
• Aduro Biotech (ADRO) -$0.55;

The downside trend reflects a pricing trend range of:

• Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.00% <BCLI> to -19.83% <OPXA> in 27 equities;
• Last Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.05% <JUNO> to -10.85% <OPXA> in 11 equities;

The upside shows a pricing trend range of:

• Monday’s gainers ranged from +0.63% <CLLS> to +12.29% <CUR> in 14 equities;
• Last Monday’s gainers ranged from +0.31% <BTX> to +26.37% <ISCO> in 28 equities;

Wrap-up: anybody can read a paragraph … review the percentage changes per day in the week of the decliners and advancers while …

• Monday’s 14 gainers … start the week …
• Monday’s 27 decliners...

Pre-open indication’s tally:  2 hits (BTX and ONVO) and 1 miss (BSTG)

• Biostage (BSTG) closed DOWN -$0.03 – miss;
• BioTime (NYSEMKT: BTX) closed UP +$0.07 – hit;
• Organovo (ONVO) closed UP +$0.08 – hit;

Percentage (%) decliners:

• Opexa (OPXA) -19.83%;
• Stemline (STML) -8.15%;
• Adverum (ADVM) -7.81%;
• International Stem cell (ISCO) -7.74%;
• ImmunoCellular (NTSEMKT: IMUC) -7.39%

Percentage (%) advancers:

• Neuralstem (CUR) +12.29%;
• Mesoblast (MESO) +10.25%;
• Kite Pharma (KITE) +4.25%;
• ReNeuron (RENE.L) +4.17%;
• Northwest Bio (NWBO) +3.17%

Flat:                                                                                                      

• Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) at $9.50;
• Regenxbio (RGNX) at $21.60

Review my fear gauge or the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX):

·         Monday traded near 12.64;

·         Friday traded near 11.8;

·         Thursday traded 12.64;

·         Wednesday traded near 17.22;

·         Tuesday traded near 11.63;

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.