RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell analysis, a day of falling knives as any strength was sold into …

December 14, 2016 5:21pm

… The advance/decline line started at 28/16 and fell to 16/26

The sector dived beginning at 10 a.m. while the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF was UP +0.14% which is off -20% so far this year

Pre-open indication’s tally:  4 hits (AXGN, FATE, HSGX and VCEL) and 2 miss (BTX and VTGN)

There are two things that investors need - interpretation of news and translation of market metrics concerning the stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy sector to substantiate share pricing.

I answer one question; in which company should investors put, keep and commit their money!

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't!

U.S. stocks fell in choppy trade Wednesday, led lower by energy and utilities, after the Federal Reserve raise rates for the second time in a decade.

The NASDAQ closed DOWN -27.16 or -0.50% to 5,436.67 and the DOW closed DOWN -118.68 or -0.60% to 19,792.53.

A day in the life of the stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCGT & RT) sector – the advance/decline line scenario of our 43 covered companies:   

• The open was positive with an A/DL of 28/10 and 5 flats;                      
• The mid-day dumped negative with an A/DL of 16/26 and 2 flats;
• The closing bell was stayed negative with A/DL of 21/19 and 3 flats;

Henry’omics:

The stem, cell, gene and regenerative therapy (SCG&RT) sector opened positive, dumped negative at the mid-day and closed negative.

• From this morning’s investor’s letter, “if you’re staying invested in the sector, hold in place.  Fundamentally are fragile as resistance floats.”

Reiterating, “Even I have a hard time ignoring the carnage of many share pricings! Where are the CEOs in their indignations … NOT a peep …! Where is the defense when the offence has left the management suite?”

• The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) indicated a negative pre- open of -0.02% and closed DOWN -1.25%; the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indicated a positive pre-open of +0.06% and closed UP +0.14%;
• The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 13.4.

As far as “our” universe is concerned, there's a difference between predicting what could, might or should happen … especially where 2017 is about to knock on the door.

Re investing in the SCG&RT sector is all … about return on investable dollars and that is … accomplished by lowering your cost for owning what “could” return.

The real issue is when …

There are a few weeks of December left, so what happens I believe is a … spiral, some due to tax selling and Friday is a quadruple witching day – stay tuned when one is +80% correct  - it’s worth reading!!

The Fed raised rates … “percent, percent my portfolio for a percent “– another Henry’ism …

• The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range from 0.25%to 0.5% to a range of 0.5% to 0.75%. The overnight funds rate currently sits at 0.41%. In addition to approving the much-expected increase, the FOMC also indicated a higher rate than projected back in September when it last released the quarterly look ahead. The committee now expects three rate hikes in 2017, two or three in 2018 and three in 2019;
• In a news conference following the Fed's announcement, Chair Janet Yellen said President-elect Donald Trump's plans to stimulate the economy with government spending figured into the central bank's expectations for three rate hikes next year.

Today’s 3 biggest $ gainers included:

• Vericel (VCEL) +$1.50;
• Kite Pharma (KITE) +$1.02;
• Brainstorm (BCLI) +$0.46

Today’s 3 biggest $ losers of the session were:

• Regenxbio (RGNX) -$1.20;
• Cellectis SA (CLLS) -$0.82;
• Intrexon (XON) -$0.60

The downside trend reflects a pricing trend range of:

• Wednesday’s decliners ranged from -0.22% <MDXG> to- 7.36% <IMUC> in 26 equities;
• Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.64% <CYTX> to -14.19% <ISCO> in 19 equities;
• Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.00% <BCLI> to -19.83% <OPXA> in 27 equities;

The upside shows a pricing trend range of:

• Wednesday’s gainers ranged from +0.08% <ONCE> to +57.69% <VCEL> in 16 equities
• Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.63% to +10.80% in 22 equities;
• Monday’s gainers ranged from +0.63% <CLLS> to +12.29% <CUR> in 14 equities;

Wrap-up: anybody can read a paragraph … review the percentage changes per day in the week of the decliners and advancers while …

• Monday’s 14 gainers compared to Tuesday’s 22 and was followed by Wednesday’s 16
• Monday’s 27 decliners compared to Tuesday’s 19 and was followed by Wednesday’s 26

Pre-open indication’s tally:  4 hits (AXGN, FATE, HSGX and VCEL) and 2 miss (BTX and VTGN)

• AxoGen (AXGN) closed DOWN -$0.20 – hit;
• BioTime (NYSEMKT: BTX) closed DOWN -$0.15 – miss;
• Fate Therapeutics (FATE) closed UP +$0.03 – hit;
• Histogenics (HSGX) closed UP +$0.01 – hit;
• Vericel (VCEL) closed UP +$1.50 – hit;
• VistaGen (VTGN) closed DOWN -$0.23 – miss;

Percentage (%) decliners:

• ImmunoCellular (NYSEMKT: IMUC) -7.36^;
• Fibrocell (FCSC) -7.32% after Tuesday’s -13%;
• Opexa (OPXA) -6.74% after Tuesday’s -6.12% after Monday’s -19.83%;
• VistaGen (VTGN) -6.05%
• Regenxbio (RGNX) -5.47%

Percentage (%) advancers:

• Vericel (VCEL) +57.69%;
• Brainstorm (BCLI) +21.30%;
• Northwest Bio (NWBO) +21.17% after Tuesday’s +10.66% after Monday’s +3.17%;
• International Stem Cell (ISCO) +9.02% after Tuesday’s -14.19% after Monday’s -7.74%;
• Sangamo (SGMO) +3.02% after Tuesday’s +5.95%

Flat:                                                                                                      

• ReNeuron (RENE.L) at $2.75

Review my fear gauge or the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX):

·         Wednesday traded near 13.4;

·         Tuesday traded near 12.7;

·         Monday traded near 12.64;

·         Friday traded near 11.8;

·         Thursday traded 12.64;

·         Last Wednesday traded near 17.22;

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.