May 9, 2017 7:50am
The story, the sector will continue to struggle as Q1 reporting continues to grind investors to the bone
… Adverum (ADVM), Athersys (ATHX), uniQure (QURE), Pluristem (PSTI), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) will report today
Consensus laggards are “feeling the pain” as Q1 metrics are worse than expected
… I believe, post reporting - some bounces are anticipated
Flat to slightly higher open expected
Pre-open indications: five (5), 3 BUYS and 2 SELLS, with all the reporting that is about to go on with the resulting influences – I will HOLD until Q1/17 consequences become evident
Critical information ahead of “our” universe’s open! I provide intelligence and analysis for short and near-term investment.
Readership is a team sport, are you on it - otherwise you'd be reading and preparing for the sessions up and downside?
Expectation is the word for 2017 – meeting the unknowns with the soon to be exposed concerns will be the subject of investing decisions throughout this year.
Dow futures are UP +0.13% and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.06%
U.S. stock index futures pointed to a flat to slightly higher open on Tuesday, with investors gearing up for a slew of earnings results, on top of being on the lookout for new data and comments from leading Fed members.
European markets moved higher during mid-morning deals, supported by an upbeat session on Wall Street and stabilization in commodity prices
Asian equities were subdued after soaring in the previous trading session with investors focused on key regional events unfolding in the day, including a presidential election in South Korea and the release of the Australian federal budget.
Data docket: the NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business) survey showed small-business confidence slipped in April. Wholesale trade and JOLTs (job openings and labor turnover survey) are also due later on Tuesday.
· In the central banking sphere, members from the U.S. Federal Reserve are expected to deliver speeches on Tuesday.
The cell therapy sector closed NEGATIVE on Monday, Friday, Thursday, Wednesday and last Tuesday.
The cell therapy sector’s record after the last 5 days (of 43 covered companies):
· Monday closed NEGATIVE with 28 decliners, 12 advancers and 3 flats;
· Friday closed NEGATIVE with 24 decliners, 15 advancers and 4 flats;
· Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 21 decliners, 16 advancers and 6 flats;
· Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 24 decliners, 14 advancers and 5 flats;
· Last Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 29 decliners, 13 advancers and 1 flat;
Remembering Monday’s closing bell newsletter, “Driven by distraction … it wasn’t just Kite Pharma (KITE) that took down the session.”
- Reiterating,” Anxiety surrounds Q1/17 financial results as this is the week that will set the expectation for the next months”
Could it be – acceptance, hear no reporting, see or read no commentary as most downsides were expected; I’d be watching for the bounce post the negativity period!
More reporting surprises could be on the way ...
The day to come – Q1 financial results a.k.a. earnings:
Tuesday:
· Regenxbio (RGNX)
Adverum (ADVM)
· Spark Therapeutics (ONCE)
· Athersys (ATHX)
· uniQure (QURE)
· Pluristem (PSTI)
What did I see on Monday, the DOW closed up +0.03% and The NASDAQ closed up +0.03% while volatility traded near 10.
It is the start of the week of a heck of a lot of quarterly reporting - in regard to decliners versus gainers – it frames the state of the sector – rotating until Q1 reporting is all, but over:
· Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.65% <CAPR> to -13.56% <CUR> in 28 equities;
· Friday’s decliners ranged from -0.41% <ONCE> to -12.83% <IMUC> in 24 equities;
Gainers versus decliners– it also frames the state of the sector:
· Monday’s gainers ranged from +0.37% <ONVO> to +11.84% <OSIR> in 12 equities;
· Friday’s gainers ranged from +0.37% <ONVO> to +8.09% <AXGN> in 15 equities;
Referencing the title, “Consensus laggards are feeling the pain “Is it a temporary condition? Abandoning the oversold in the days and weeks ahead will not suit your current portfolio!
I have another analogy from my past, “when you feel the pain, you know you’re not dead yet.” Or a better version, you can open your monthly portfolio statement without a shot of spirits!
You’ve made it to the office, turned on the monitor, having just gotten your coffee and it hits you - what could be today’s trades?
Watch list:
- The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) closed Monday down -2.17%, and is NOT indicating in Tuesday’s pre-market;
- The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) closed Monday down -2.71% and is NOT indicating in Tuesday pre-market;
- The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) closed down -0.62% Monday and is NOT indicating in Tuesday’s pre-open;
- The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) closed down -0.42% on Monday and is indicating UP and a positive +0.04% in Tuesday’s pre-open
Companies in my headlights - with all the reporting that is about to go on and the resulting influences – I will HOLD until the Q1/17 financial result “situations” become clear as dark clouds are gathering. Exceptions are …
Histogenics (HSGX) closed down -0.02 to $1.69 following Friday’s $1.72 (+$0.02). Regurgitating, HSGX had successfully completed all formal consultations with the Office of Cellular and Tissue-based Products of the Japan Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency (the PMDA) regarding the Marketing and Manufacturing Authorization pathway for NeoCart (autologous cell therapy designed to treat cartilage defects in the knee) in the Japanese market. HSGX is currently nearing the completion of enrollment in a 245 patient P3 clinical trial of NeoCart that is being conducted under a Special Protocol Assessment (the SPA) with the FDA. Even with financial results on Wednesday - Maintaining BUY;
Bellicum Pharma (BLCM) closed down -$0.87 to $12.31. The aftermarket is a negative -$0.07 or -0.56% with NO pre-market indication, When these equities take such a hit, it just might be time to establish , re-establish or do a double- down - SELL;
Juno therapeutics (JUNO) closed down -$1.52 to $22.16. Even after all the Q1 reporting news, there could be an upside. The aftermarket indication is a positive +$0.02 or +0.09% – BUY;
Kite Pharma (KITE) closed down -$10.79 or -13.19% to $70.99. Even after all the Q1 reporting news, there could be an upside. The aftermarket indication is a positive +$0.74 or +1.04% - BUY;
Osiris (OSIR) closed up +$0.63 to $5.95 following Friday’s $5.32 (+$0.07), Thursday’s $5.25 (+$0.24), Wednesday’s $5.01 (+$0.11), last Tuesday’s $4.90, and the previous Monday’s $4.80. After seven (7) sessions, OSIR ranged from $4.71 to $5.95 and with a federal indictment and NO recent (two years’ worth) K or Q filings, I don’t see any further or new filings; why say more - Maintaining SELL;
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Henry’s comments are for informational purposes only and are not a substitute for personalized advice. Consult your advisor about what is best for you.
