May 11, 2017 5:57pm

 

This is the usual warning sign of investor complacency and trader speculation

 

Ranking a company’s financial performance is not a simple one

Share pricing dips post reporting should be expected, but, the question is how long will their sell-offs last?

 

Pre-open indications: 6 hits and 2 miss,

 

As the leading voice of cell therapy investors; I am not always a doom and gloom reporter but a man who has been “there” with the gray hair and a readership following with real numbers to prove it!

There are many companies that I believe can do “it” better – JOIN me!

 

I answer one question, in which company should investors commit and keep their money

 

 

 

RMi’s daily and continual “reads” of the goings-on of the SCG&RT sector can improve investor’s and trader’s odds - just because a stock underperforms the market doesn’t mean you have to lose money.

 

 

Henry’omics:

From the pre-open’s investor’s newsletter “an investor must isolate the signal from the news, market clatter and sentiment.”

  • Reiterating, “Don’t make the mistake of reacting to each company’s quarterly reporting and every news story as it hits the wires; the sector and markets always anticipate … the very few short-term pop as traders selling into and after losses per share!”

On Thursday, the latest trend in the cell therapy sector is not a surprise to investors so far this year … there's pervasive selling, CEOs don’t want to cut costs if they think they're going to keep getting away with it.

  • With share pricing being so elastic, steady financial performance in the absence of news and a slow clinical cycle may not be enough to overcome negative sentiment toward the sector.

Investors are increasingly of the view that cell therapy fundamentals have deteriorated or have outright disappeared as a measurement tool.

 

Investors and traders cite disappointing trial launches, a lack of patient population for “powered” trials, catalysts, heightened pay of management teams and dependence on capital market access.

  • Poor stock performance and sentiment has engendered a “glass half empty or all, but emptied” view toward fundamentals that exist …

Financial results based on reporting are the most objective metric for gauging performance, and I expected Q1 to support the notion that cell therapy’s growth outlook and value proposition remain … unfavorable relative to the biotech sectors.

As such, could Q2 provide the sector with a firmer level of support – maybe, but doubtful.

 

However, more substantial upside is likely to be dependent on meeting catalysts and milestones – which in most cases are NOT defined as well as a change in sentiment, which is subjective and always difficult to predict in terms of timing.

Unfortunately, the short-term defines the strength of the sentiment!

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Daily analytics:

U.S. equities closed DOWN on Thursday … with the DOW closing down -0.11% (-23.69) as the NASDAQ also closed down -0.22% (+13.18) …

… The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 10.6 ….

·    Wednesday traded near 10,after Tuesday traded below 10, not seen since December 2006 while Monday traded near 10 after Friday’s near 10.7 following last Thursday’s 10.48;

 

Welcome to another day of the sector’s roller coaster …

… The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) indicated a negative -0.37% at the pre-open was and closed DOWN -0.64%, Wednesday’s+0.62% following Tuesday’s -0.03% versus Monday’s -0.24%;

… The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) did NOT indicate in the pre-open and closed DOWN -019% after Wednesday’s -0.34% following Tuesday’s +1.21% versus Monday’s -2.17%

 

 

The advance/decline line scenario of 43 SCGT & RT covered companies:   

·         The open was negative  with an A/DL of 14/25 and 4 flats –;

·         The mid-day stayed negative with an A/DL of 14/28 and 1 flat;

·         The close was negative with an A/DL of 19/21 and 3 flats;

 

 

The range count - decliners versus gainers: look at the differences in the spreads and advance/decline lines:

·         Thursday’s decliners ranged from -0.20% <CLBS> to -5.04% <AGTC> in 21 equities;

·         Wednesday’s decliners ranged from -0.48% <VTGN> to -7.92% <RGNX> in 14 equities;

·         Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.07% <MDXG> to -27.70% <CUR> in 22 equities;

·         Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.65% <CAPR> to -13.56% <CUR> in 28 equities;

Versus

·         Thursday’s gainers ranged from +0.09% <KITE> to +60.92% <SGMO> in 19 equities;

·         Wednesday’s gainers ranged from +0.03% <OPXA> to +36.18% <CUR> in 27 equities;

·         Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.04% <CLLS> to +6.41% <JUNO> in 18 equities;

·         Monday’s gainers ranged from +0.37% <ONVO> to +11.84% <OSIR> in 12 equities;

 

 

Pre-open indications: 6 hits and 2 miss

  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed down - $0.30 – hit;
  • Intrexon (XON) closed up +$4.06 – hit;
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) closed up +$2.65 – hit;
  • bluebird bio (BLUE) closed down -$3.30 – hit;
  • Stemline (STML) closed up +$0.20 – miss;
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed down -$0.22 – hit;
  • Regenxbio (RGNX) closed up +$0.40 – miss;
  • Verastem (VSTM) closed down -$0.02 – hit;

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.