RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open indications, probability is my key word

August 30, 2017 7:28am

And I am sticking to a downside view, the drama of an acquisition momentum and low to moderate volume leaves little to imagination

Safety is an exit with a profit as a day or to will have its cost or not

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Pre-open indications: 3 BUY and 4 SELLs

Critical pre-market indications ahead of “our” universe’s open!

Higher open expected

Dow futures are UP +0.13% and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.16%

U.S. stock index futures pointed to a higher open on Wednesday, as geopolitical concerns surrounding North Korea and the West appeared to show signs of receding.

European markets posted solid gains as investors tried to oust any nerves surrounding North Korea tensions and took advantage of the positive sentiment seen overseas.

Asia markets closed higher, following the stronger lead from Wall Street overnight as traders appeared to shake off new North Korea missile concerns.

Data docket: The ADP National Employment report is due out at 8.15 a.m. ET, followed by the second estimate for gross domestic product data in the second quarter at 8.30 a.m. ET, and the routine mortgage applications, set to come out at 7.a.m. ET.

Political issues that affect the trading day: markets worldwide were on edge following news that North K

Korea had fired a ballistic missile which had passed over Japan. However, investor nervousness around North Korea appears to have eased.

The cell therapy sector closed POSITIVE on Tuesday and Monday, NEGATIVE on Friday, POSITIVE on Thursday and last Wednesday.

The cell therapy sector’s record over the last 5 sessions (of 43 covered companies):

·         Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 24 advancers and 3 flats;

·         Monday closed POSITIVE with 14 decliners, 21 advancers and 8 flats;

·         Friday closed NEGATIVE with 21 decliners, 17 advancers and 5 flats;

·         Thursday closed POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 21 advancers and 4 flat

·         Last Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 21 advancers and 4 flats;

Henry ’omics:

Referencing the title, “probability” - the likelihood of something happening or being the case …

Sometimes you can measure a probability with a number like "10% chance", or you can use words such as impossible, unlikely, and possible, even chance, likely and certain – clean-out those share pricing overachievers based on another company’s news …

From which I draw inferences about the expected frequency of events based on recent history …

Over the past two weeks, trading volume has slowed to a crawl, falling below even seasonally low August averages, culminating last Friday with the lightest session of full-day trading of the year, at 4.81 billion shares.  Thursday closed POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 21 advancers and 4 flat
·         Last Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 21 advancers and 4 flats;

Plus, the stock market is long overdue for a pullback of 5% or more off their highs. As of Tuesday, the S&P 500 has gone 296 trading sessions without a pullback of 5% or more, its longest streak since July 1929, when it went 369 days without one, according to Dow Jones data.

Even without potential catalysts to ramp up volume, September volume traditionally shows a double-digit jump in trading. Over the past five years, 2015 was the only year when average September trading volume was lower than that of a busier-than-usual August.

U.S. financial markets will be closed on Monday, Sept. 4 in observance of Labor Day. Because Labor Day is a Federal holiday, banks and federal government offices will be shuttered.

On Friday, markets will be open during normal trading hours, though expect slightly thinner volumes, as many will plan an earlier exit from trading desks ahead of a long weekend. (That said, more than a few market geeks will be eagerly anticipating the latest batch of closely watched employment report for August and a few other key economic reports on Friday before ducking out). <MarketWatch>

You’ve made it to the office, turned on the monitor, having just gotten your coffee and it hits you - what could be today’s trades? 

Watch list:

• The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) closed up +0.29% on Tuesday and the aftermarket is a POSITIVE +0.06 while Wednesday’s pre-market is NOT indicating;
• The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) closed Tuesday up +0.45% and is indicating a POSITIVE aftermarket indication of +0.14% but, is NOT indicating in Wednesday’s pre-market;
• The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) closed up +0.19% Tuesday and is NOT indicating in Wednesday’s pre-open;
• The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) closed up +0.02% on Tuesday and pre-market is indicating a POSITIVE +0.08% in Wednesday pre-open

Companies in my headlights:

Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed up +$0.05 to $4.55 with 112.2 K shares traded following Monday’s -$0.05 again to $4.50 with 83 K shares traded after Friday’s $4.55 with 119.5 K shares traded <3 month average =194.6 K shares>. The week started at $4.60, August at $4.60, July at $5.05 and June at $5.20. Volume has been volatile with no pattern or reason as the shares tripped to the downside. The 50 day moving average is $4.85; the 52 week low was $4.50 while August’s low was $4.80 with a high of $5.25 – Time for an upside – Maintaining BUY;

Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) closed up +$0.68 to $10.10 after Monday’s $9.42 (+$1.14) after Friday’s $8.28 (-$0.34) with 453.8 K shares traded <3 month average = 757.9 K shares after Thursday’s up $8.62 (+$0.66) with 1 M shares traded. The aftermarket indication is a negative -$0.15 or -1.59%. OVERBOUGHT on KITE’s news – Maintaining SELL;

Biostage (BSTG) closed down -$0.0023 to $0.30. What do they have , some new money- $3 M for in excess of 9 M shares, NO IND forthcoming, a new target, NO partner and who can believe anything they say. It’s more than shocking - $30 M + down the drain over the last 3 years and this BOD has NOT dismissed a single executive as after all the failures and down financings, their still collecting their over-the-top compensation packages. But, we shall see, their response to the dismissal of the terminal death suit is STILL outstanding - The aftermarket is a negative -1.23% - Maintaining SELL

bluebird bio (BLUE) closed down -$3.90 to $102.40 following Monday’s $106.30 (+$8.45). The aftermarket indication is a negative -$1.25 or -1.18% - OVERBOUGHT as to KITE’s news – SELL;

Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed down -$0.79 to $28.69 following Monday’s $29.49 (+$4.29) with 534.2 K shares traded <3 month average = 91.9 K shares> after Friday’s $25.19 (+$0.43) with 79.5 K shares traded. Last week started at $23.20 while the month experienced a high of $25.19 and a low of $21.65. CLLS can be a trading vehicle as its share pricing rides the waves of sentiment; the aftermarket indication is a positive +$0.81 or +2.82% – SELL to BUY;

Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) closed up +$7.33 to $42.81 following Monday’s $36.48 (+$5.75). The aftermarket indication is a positive +$2.07 or +4.72% - KITE’s news is such a motivator, yet I am getting nervous but, going with flow of momentum – BUY;

Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) closed up +$1.30 to $12.80 following Monday’s $11.50 (+$0.80). Last week started at $9.90 and ended at $10.70. August started at $8.45, with a high of $11.50 and a low of $8.40. The aftermarket indication is a positive +-$0.05 or +0.39% - Maintaining SELL;

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.