October 24, 2017 6:04pm

Given the performance of certain sector equities, has the market discounted forward share value?

 

Equity market caps are being disrupted by “current” sentiment based on questions of platform viability and the irregularity stimulated by algorithms and ETF exposure …

Negating investor’s outlook!

 

Pre-open indications: 1 hit and 4 miss (I believe I am early again)

 

In the grip of rotating cycles and disparaging trends, what is the price of sector equities - knowledge and a subscription!  


 

The way forward cannot be found in the practices and spending of the past as the sector is operating and defined by its own contradictions.

Tuesday’s results have implications to Wednesday’s sector activity as a daily report may say little or a lot and it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined and evaluated!

 

 

Henry’omics:

From the pre-open’s newsletter, every company has another side; one that calls on managements to provide the “numbers” but, also the truth and not after the fact. Stripping information or self-promoting rhetoric destroys the accuracy of a press release for even facts can be elusive. A release can be accurate in particulars yet falter as an upside determinate.”

Referencing this a.m.’s title, “when we expect a company to provide a straightforward release, we are misunderstanding the limited nature of exploiting expectation – the key is devising accurate interpretation of what is being released.”

It is a mistake to assume that analysis works well in our tightly defined sector and universe, it does in many cases and does NOT matter in some companies that news is a factor in formulating “guesses” because news is multifarious and slippery!

Skepticism about the value of sector knowledge and institutional history has diminished as a result of development initiatives layered by the access to capital markets for share pricing!

As I stated yesterday, welcome to the temporary price “hissings” as propagated by  its many analysts and amateur day trading “forecasters”!

Just can’t leave the sarcasm at the door …!

 

 

The advance/decline line scenario of 43 SCGT & RT covered companies:   

·         The open was negative with an A/DL of 13/25 and 5 flats;

·         First hour was negative with an A/DL of 18/20 and 5 flats;

·         The mid-day was negative with an A/DL of 15/23 and 5 flat;

·         The close was negative  with an A/DL of 10/28 and 5 flats;

 

Pre-open indications: 1 hit and 4 miss

  • Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed up +$0.97 – miss;
  • Athersys (ATHX) closed up + $0.03 – hit;
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed up +$0.28 – miss;
  • Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed UP +$1.80 – miss;
  • uniQure (QURE) closed up +$0.26 – miss;

 

Some of MY working trend lines or indications:

The greatest volume to the downside:  MDXG, JUNO, ONVO, XON and SGMO

Upside volume was weighted to:  IMUC, PSTI, QURE, ONCE and BLUE

Biggest $ downside: MSXG (-$1.02), JUNO (-$0.64), RGNX (-$0.60), MESO (-$0.40) and XON (-$0.30)

Largest $ upside: ONCE (+$1.80), CLLS (+$0.97), BLUE (+$0.90), BLFS (+$0.28) and QURE (+$0.26)

Flat:  AXGN, VTGN, RENE.L and AGTC  

 

 

Daily analytics:

U.S. stocks closed higher on Tuesday, with the Dow ending in record territory, supported by earnings results that continued to come in ahead of expectations.

·         The Dow rose 167.80 points, or 0.7%, to 23,441.76, marking its 54th record close of 2017.

·         The S&P 500 added 4.15 points, or 0.2%, to end at 2,569.13, with seven of the 11 main sectors posting gains.

·         The NASDAQ rose 11.60 points, or 0.2%, to 6,598.43, with gains limited by a drop in biotechnology shares. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF fell 0.8%.

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market; Tuesday traded at 11.10, up +0.27% …

  • Monday traded at 10.87, up +9.03% after Friday traded at 9.95, down -1% after Thursday traded at 10.05, down -0.20% after Wednesday traded at 10.07, down -2.33% after last Tuesday traded at 10.31, up +4.04% …

 

Welcome to another day of the sector’s roller coaster …

… The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) indicated:

·         Tuesday was up +0.20%

·         Monday -0.74%

·         Friday+0.46%

·         Thursday -0.13%

·         Wednesday +0.47%

·         Last Tuesday -0.29%

 

… The Russell 2000 (RUT) indicated

·         Tuesday was up +0.20%

·         Monday -0.77%

·         Friday +0.48%

·         Thursday -0.21%

·         Wednesday +0.51%

·         Last Tuesday -0.34%

 

… The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indicated:

·         Tuesday was down -0.78%

·         Monday -1.22%

·         Friday -0.99%

·         Thursday -0.26%

·         Wednesday -0.64%

·         Last Tuesday+0.38%

 

 

The count - decliners versus gainers:

……. look at the differences in the spreads as decliners jump and %

·         Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.95% <FATE -$0.04> to -8.28% <MDXG -$1.02> in 28 equities;

·         Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.76% <KOOL -$0.03> to -11.37% <MDXG -$1.58> in 24 equities;

·         Friday’s decliners ranged from -0.27% <ADRO -$0.03> to -6.67% <VCEL -$0.30> in 11 equities;

·         Thursday’s decliners ranged from -0.11% <XON -$0.02> to -13.08% <VTGN -$0.17> in 24 equities;

·         Wednesday’s decliners ranged from -0.43% <MDXG -$0.06> to -21.97% <BSTG -$0.019> in 23 equities;

·         Last Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.38% <BTX -$0.01> to -% <STML -$0.50> in 19 equities;

Versus

… Look at the percentage’s (%) and spreads …

·         Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.60% <ISCO +$0.01> to +% <PSTI +$0.16> in 10 equities;

·         Monday’s gainers ranged from +0.61% <ISCO +$0.01> to +11.31% <BSTG +$0.009> in 15 equities;

·         Friday’s gainers ranged from +0.50% <AXGN +$0.10> to +27.11% <QURE +$4.11> in 28 equities;

·         Thursday’s gainers ranged from +0.25% <BLUE +$0.35 > to +60.08% <QURE (+$5.69> in 24 equities;

·         Wednesday’s gainers ranged from +0.09% < JUNO +$0.04> to +5.72% <BLFS +$0.33> in 18 equities;

·         Last Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.21% <CLLS +$0.06> to +0.28% <BLFS +$0.28> in 20 equities;

 

 

Picking and sorting the week’s apples:

Biostage (BSTG) was down -$0.0052 after Monday’s+$0.009. They are the “walking dead” of a company … the question is, what is the value of the “shell” and how long will the CEO and CFO drain the bank account (?) – Until its zero!

CAPR closed down again -$0.08 after Monday’s -$0.02 after Friday’s -$0.11 - CAPR can’t keep fooling investors with their brand of hype;

CLBS closed down again -$0.;11 after Monday’s -$0.10 after being flat (Friday) at $3.39 – I keep hearing stories about why they can’t get out of their own way … VTGN was flat at $1.04 after being down  -$0.02 after Friday’s -$0.07 – ketamine is a horse drug combo?;

VCEL was down -$0.10 after being up +$0.20 after being down -$0.30 on Friday– still believe is on an Icarus flight path … while AXGN was flat again at $20.00 (Tuesday and Monday) after being up +$0.10 on Friday … the merry-go-round turns – I’m still riding the horse; MDXG was down again -$1.02 after Monday’s -$1.58 after being up +$0.07 (Friday) – stay in;

HSGX closed down again -$0.06 after Monday’s -$0.03 after Friday’s +$0.05 … I like the company i.e. still undervalued …

SGMO was down -$0.25 after Monday’s +$0.15 after Friday’s -$0.50 while ONCE was up again +$1.08 after Monday’s +$1.82 – once it gets too rich it becomes a profit-taking target;

BLUE was up +$0.90 after Monday’s -$2.20 after Friday’s +$3.10 … a soccer ball score;

AGTC was flat at $3.85 after Monday’s down -$0.20 after Friday’s +$0.15 … can’t escape the basement … is management is deaf to stockholders?

RGNX closed down -$0.60 after Monday’s -$1.65 after being up +$0.30 … I keep telling you to stay!

Cellectis S.A. (CLLS) jumped again +$0.97 after Monday’s +$0.58 after Friday’s +$2.60 … if you stay on the merry-go-round, don’t wait for the music to stop;

AST was down again -$0.15 after Monday’s -$0.10 after Friday’s -$0.05 while mothership BTX was also down another -$0.15 after Monday’s -$0.05 after Friday’s $0.0.09 … both financed to prop their balance sheets

Immuno-oncologists - JUNO was down -$0.64 after Monday’s +$1.42 after Friday’s +$0.31; as VSTM was down again -$0.10 after Monday’s  -$0.07 after Friday’s flat at $3.95 – up, down, round and round; 

STML was down again -$0.18 after Monday’s -$0.10 after Friday’s +$0.25; while ADRO dropped another -$0.25 after Monday’s -$0.45 after Friday’s -$0.03 as BLCM dropped another -$0.12 after Monday’s -$0.22 after Friday’s +$0.08 … it’s a ride with expectation in the wind;

ATHX closed down -$0.03 after Monday’s flat at $1.99 after Friday’s +$0.15 …  there are even MORE  question re their cash position going forward as their clinical “manufacturing” batch issues and patent might be solved  but, how are they going to pay for the future?

FATE was down -$0.04 after Monday’s +$0.03 after Friday’s +$0.07 – hang in;

MESO was down -$0.40 after Monday’s +$0.10 after Friday’s -$0.20 – still waiting for some news, as I had stated time to be accumulating on dips…

PSTI was up again +$0.16 after Monday’s +$0.07 after Friday’s-$0.03 - wait for the downside signal, it always comes and it did!

QURE closed up +$0.26 after Monday’s down -$0.75 after Friday’s +$4.11 to $19.47 following Thursday’s +$5.69 ($15.16) – an Icarus candidate (?) - An offering was proposed on Monday, surprised by the upside?

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.