October 31, 2017 6:46pm

The sector ended the dreaded month of October as …

Quarterly results keep share pricing volatile affecting sentiment with expectation remaining low

 

Pre-open indications: 5 hits and 2 miss

Out and about: Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) dived -$0.30 or -8.11% to $3.40 as many question their platform as “earnings” are to be announced on 11/7 while its CEO’s non-communication squanders its stock’s performance

Quarterly results: Aduro Biotech’s (ADRO) net loss for Q3 was $24.5 million, or $0.33 per share with a cash position totaled at $373.5 million.

 

How right does one have to be? You could and should be reading this review of the day’s share pricing activity?


 

What’s the gauge of pricing expectation – monetization of information!  Tuesday’s results have implications to Wednesday’s sector activity as a daily report may say little or a lot and it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined and evaluated!

 

 

Henry’omics:

From the pre-open’s newsletter, get ready for reporting season and some downside movement as 11/1 starts the full roll as ATHX, AXGN FATE and JUNO report - then comes ONCE, VCEL and AGTC on 11/7 and HSGX, BTX and ONVO on 11/9 with their conference calls.”

Reiterating, “Investor’s focus will primarily be on each company’s cash burn, its pipeline updates and whether they need to jump through the offering window ensuring dilution and pricing depreciation.  Some need to finance in FY17 to execute with runways in FY18.”

 

The advance/decline line scenario of 43 SCGT & RT covered companies:   

·         The open was positive with an A/DL of 23/14 and 6 flats;

·         11:30 am was negative with an A/DL of 19/20 and 4 flats;

·         The mid-day was negative with an A/DL of 19/22 and 2 flats;

·         The close was negative  with an A/DL of 17/23 and 3 flats;

 

Pre-open indications: 5 hit and 2 miss

  • Athersys (ATHX) closed down -$0.02 – hit;
  • AxoGen (AXGN) closed up +$0.40 – miss;
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed up +$0.20 – hit;
  • bluebird bio (BLUE) closed down -$2.50 – hit;
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed up +$1.00 – miss;
  • Stemline (STML) closed up +$3.10 – hit;
  • Verastem (VSTM) closed up +$0.16 – hit;

 

 

Some of MY working trend lines or indications:

The greatest volume to the downside:  JUNO, PSTI, NWBO, XON and SGMO

Upside volume was weighted to:  RENE.L, STML, IMUC, MDXG and CAPR

Biggest $ downside: ONCE (-$2.71), BLUE (-$2.50), JUNO (-$1.38), QURE (-$0.52) and BLCM (-$0.47)

Largest $ upside: STML (+$3.10), RGNX (+$1.20), CLLS (+$1.00), AXGN (+$0.40) and OSIR (+0.30)

Flat:  AST, BTX and ADVM

 

 

Quarterly financial results:

Aduro Biotech, Inc. (ADRO) reported a net loss for Q3 was $24.5 million, or $0.33 per share, and for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 net loss was $65.7 million, or $0.92 per share, compared to net loss of $35.1 million, or $0.54 per share, and net loss of $61.6 million, or $0.96 per share, respectively, for the same periods in 2016.

·         Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities totaled $373.5 million at September 30, 2017, compared to $361.9 million at December 31, 2016.

 

Key Recent Accomplishments

·         Initiated P1b trial of ADU-S100 in combination with anti-PD-1 in collaboration with Novartis

·         Initiated Phase 1 study of personalized LADD (pLADD) using patient-specific neoantigens in adults with metastatic colorectal cancer that is microsatellite stable

·         Received FDA clearance of an Investigational New Drug Application for the Phase 1 study of BION-1301, an anti-APRIL antibody

·         Bolstered intellectual property position in STING field with two new patent issuances

Remaining Anticipated 2017 Milestones

·         Report early observations from the ongoing Phase 2 mesothelioma study evaluating CRS-207 in combination with pembrolizumab

·         Provide an update on the safety and tolerability of ADU-S100 in the ongoing dose-escalation P1 monotherapy trial

·         Initiate P1 multiple myeloma trial with BION-1301, an anti-APRIL antibody

·         Janssen expected to advance the ADU-214 program into a P1b/2 trial in lung cancer

 

 

Daily analytics:

The stock market on Tuesday ended the dreaded month of October not only unscathed but at or near record highs, which means the biggest risk for money managers might just be the threat of missing out on the 2017 rally.

·         The Dow rose 28.5 points, or 0.1%, at 23,377.24.

·         The S&P 500 SPX, +0.09% rose 2.43 points, or about 0.1%, to 2,575.26.

·         The NASDAQ advanced 28.71 points, or 0.4%, to finish at 6,727.67.

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market; Tuesday traded 10.18 down -3.05% …

  • Monday traded at 10.50, up +7.14% after Friday traded 9.80, down -13.27% after Thursday traded at 11.33, up +0.90% after Wednesday traded at 11.27, up +0.63% and last Tuesday traded at 11.10, up +0.27% …

 

Welcome to another day of the sector’s roller coaster …

… The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) indicated:

·         Tuesday was up +0.72%

·         Monday -1.06%

·         Friday +0.68%

·         Thursday +0.21%

·         Wednesday -0.47%

·         Last Tuesday +0.20%

 

… The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indicated:

·         Tuesday was down -0.78%

·         Monday +0.17%

·         Friday +0.68%

·         Thursday -2.32%

·         Wednesday -1.14%

·         Last Tuesday -0.78%

 

 

The count - decliners versus gainers:

……. look at the differences in the spreads as decliners jump and %

·         Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.25% <KOOL -$0.01> to -8.11% <AGTC -$0.30> in 23 equities;

·         Monday’s decliners ranged from -0.60% <ADRO -$0.05> to -11.72% <PSTI -$0.29> in 28 equities;

·         Friday’s decliners ranged from -0.30% <CYTX -$0.0013> to -12.37% <VTGN -$0.13> in 12 equities;

·         Thursday’s decliners ranged from -0.25% <AXGN -$0.05> to -9.45% <CYTX -$0.049> in 27 equities;

·         Wednesday’s decliners ranged from -0.23% <STML -$0.02> to -13.37% <BLFS -$0.92> in 30 equities;

·         Last Tuesday’s decliners ranged from -0.95% <FATE -$0.04> to -8.28% <MDXG -$1.02> in 28 equities;

Versus

… Look at the percentage’s (%) and spreads …

·         Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.05% <IMUC +$0.0002> to +29.38% <STML +$3.10> in 17 equities;

·         Monday’s gainers ranged from +0.25% <AXGN +$0.05> to +0.30% <MDXG +$0.30> in 13 equities;

·         Friday’s gainers ranged from +0.30% <NWBO +$0.005> to +6.82% <FATE +$0.29> in 29 equities;

·         Thursday’s gainers ranged from +0.51% <KOOL +$0.02> to +6.78% <FATE +$0.27> in 10 equities;

·         Wednesday’s gainers ranged from +0.09% <NWBO +$0.0001> to +9.09% <CAPR +$0.20> in 11 equities;

·         Last Tuesday’s gainers ranged from +0.60% <ISCO +$0.01> to +% <PSTI +$0.16> in 10 equities;

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.