November 3, 2017 7:52am
We are not fully in the buy zone yet and the number of Q3 quarterly results will be increasing next week
And expectation is still low along with enthusiasm for the predictable loss per share “numbers”
No subscription - you’re missing situational awareness!
Pre-open trading indications: 4 SELLs and 0 BUY
Out and about: OSIR has agreed to pay a civil penalty in the amount of $1.5 M. One former officer pleaded guilty and three former officers are still on the hook. There is an ongoing criminal investigation being conducted by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York relating to...
For continued access to what one industry CEO calls the “bible” for smart investing in the RegMed, gene and cell therapy sector’ … I’d recommend being a subscriber!
What’s the gauge of pricing expectation – monetization of information!
Higher open expected
Dow futures are UP +0.19% (44 points) and NASDAQ futures are +0.36% (22.75 points)
U.S. stock index futures pointed to a slightly higher open Friday, as investors digested the week's final batch of corporate earnings while awaiting key domestic and data news.
European stocks were slightly higher, as investors monitored a fresh batch of corporate earnings.
Asian shares closed mixed after searching for direction for most of the Asian trading day.
Issues that will affect the trading day: Economists expect job growth of 310,000 in October, a rebound after the impact of hurricanes Harvey and Irma resulted in a 33,000 decline in September.
Data docket: the latest nonfarm payrolls data is set to come out at 8:30 a.m. ET, which will provide investors with potential clues as to how the U.S. economy is performing as of late. The data will include average hourly wages and unemployment rate data, international trade with also come out at 8:30 a.m. ET. Meanwhile, the US Services PMI is set to be released at 9:45 a.m. ET, followed by factory orders and the non-manufacturing ISM report on business at 10 a.m. ET.
The cell therapy sector closed POSITIVE on Thursday, NEGATIVE on Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday, POSITIVE and last Friday.
The cell therapy sector’s record over the last 5 sessions (of 43 covered companies):
· Thursday closed barely POSITIVE with 20 decliners, 21 advancers and 2 flats;
· Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 27 decliners 14 advancers and 2 flats;
· Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 17 advancers and 3 flat;
· Monday closed NEGATIVE with 28 decliners, 13 advancers and 2 flats;
· Last Friday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 29 advancers and 2 flats;
Henry’omics:
From Thursday night’s closing bell post, “reverse -a-roo … as sector opens down, jumps at 11:30 am and closes barely to the upside. It was about time … however, a number of indicators send confusing signals. The vagaries of the sector and its risks …”
Now that we’re in the middle of earnings season, it’s easy to say that the quarterly game of companies “beating” earnings estimates is just a game.
There is a packed week of quarterly results due next week!
The unfortunate thing is that the ill-advised focus on short-term results can send a sector’s company’s shares down rapidly, because there is a lack of a near-term trend and in my mid a long-term inclination – to me this sector suffers from “short-termitis”.
Also, traders have a habit of piling on and selling pre and post after bad or not-so-bad quarterly results that are about to or have been announced.
Until we get through this maze of loss per share financial results, I don’t see any appreciation of consequence but, I do see traders piling on those with quick upsides!
You’ve made it to the office, turned on the monitor, having just gotten your coffee and it hits you - what could be today’s trades?
Watch list:
- The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) is indicating a NEGATIVE -0.02% in Friday’s pre-market;
- The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) is indicating a POSITIVE +0.12% in Friday’s pre-market;
- The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) is NOT indicating in Friday’s pre-open;
- The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) is indicating a POSITIVE +0.01% in Friday’s pre-open
Companies in my headlights:
AxoGen (AXGN) closed up +$2.15 to $22.75 with 664.6 K shares traded after Wednesday’s +$0.05 to $20.60 after Tuesday’s +$0.40 to $20.55 with 340.1 K shares traded after Monday’s +$0.05 to $20.15 with 209.3 K shares traded after Friday’s flat at $20.10 with 302.8 K shares traded <3 month average = 214.4 K shares>. October started at $19.10 with a low of $18.50.It’s getting rich, there’s $2.65 in premium or +11.6% - traders are looking for knock-down pricing post positive releases – Maintaining SELL;
bluebird bio (BLUE) closed up +$11.10 to $154.05 with 1.32 M shares traded after Wednesday’s -$2.50 to $139.10 with 549.3 K shares traded after Tuesday’s -$2.50 to $139.10 with 600.3 K shares traded after Monday’s +$0.80 to $141.60 with 434 K shares traded and last Friday’s +$4.20 to $140.80 with 898.7 K shares traded <3 month average = 826.7 K shares>. Last week started out at $140.35 which was down -$2.20 from the previous Friday, while October started out at $125.45 which was down -$1.19 from September’s month end with the month’s high of $143.30. Since 10.26 there‘s $$17.56 or +11.35 premium – enough to stimulate traders? The aftermarket indication is a negative -$1.10 or -0.79% – Maintaining SELL;
Capricor (CAPR) closed down -$0.214 to $2.21 with 431.7 K shares traded after Wednesday’s -$0.13 to $2.35 after Tuesday’s +$0.10 to $2.48 with 1.08 M shares traded <3 month average = 1.96 M shares> after Monday’s -$0.02 to $2.38 with 238.4 K shares traded. October started at $3.45 and has seen a continuous decline with a low of $2.20; HC Wainwright announced 10/31/17 a $14 M at-the-market financing for CAPR. NO pricing or advance notice to shareholders. Questionable status re financing and outstanding S-1 - Maintaining SELL;
Osiris (OSIR) closed up +$0.37 to $5.12 with 51 K shares traded <3 month average = 25.8 K shares. OSIR has agreed to settle with the SEC, without admitting or denying the allegations of the SEC, by consenting to the entry of a final judgment, subject to court approval, that permanently restrains and enjoins the Company from violating certain provisions of the federal securities laws. As part of the resolution, the Company also has agreed to pay a civil penalty in the amount of $1.5 M. This resolution, if approved by the Court, will resolve, the matters alleged by the SEC in the complaint. As previously disclosed, there is an ongoing criminal investigation being conducted by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York relating to matters that were also investigated by the SEC. A former chief financial officer pleaded guilty to making false statements to auditors to inflate OSIR's reported revenue. The SEC's lawsuit, filed Thursday in Maryland federal court, also targets Jacoby and three other former Osiris executives. The other defendants are the former CEO Lode Debrabandere, former VP of finance Gregory Law and former CBO Bobby Montgomery. In a criminal information filed in Manhattan federal court on Thursday, prosecutors said that Jacoby recorded $1.1 million in revenue in the last quarter of 2014 from the sale of its Ovation bone matrix product, even though the product had actually been given to a distributor on consignment rather than sold at the time. The SEC said in its lawsuit that Osiris and the former executives engaged in a "wide-ranging fraud" to inflate the company's reported revenue by about 17% in 2014 and about 9% the first three quarters of 2015. In four (4) sessions, there is a premium of $0.42 or +8.2%. – Maintaining SELL;
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
