Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: finally

October 3, 2018 6:18pm

Many of the oversold were able to “value-up”

Thank you, algorithms having “ruled” as traders recognized the quant model’s abuse of “our” universe’s share pricing

Investors need to stay – DEFENSIVE … as Q3 results and expectations are on forefront

Pre-open indications: 3 HITs and 1 MISS

The 6 W’s: Who, what, where, when, why and what of it … RMi puts the facts into evidence for the metrics to “speak”!

A daily report may say little or a lot and its final judgement may be inconclusive; yet it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined and evaluated.

Daily analytics and metrics:

The Dow closed up +54.45 points or +0.20% to 26,828.39
The S&P closed up +2.08 points or +0.07% to 2,925.51
The NASDAQ closed up +20.58 points or +0.32% to 8,025.68

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:

The open was negative with an A/DL of 16/27 and 2 flats;
2nd hour continued negative with an A/DL of 21/23 and 1 flat;
The mid-day jumped positive with an A/DL of 29/14 and 2 flats;
The close was positive with an A/DL of 27/16 and 2 flat;

Pre-open indications: 3 HITs and 1 MISS

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed up +$0.98 – hit;
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down again -$0.72 – hit;
Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) closed up +$0.31 – miss;
Verastem Oncology (VSTM) closed up +$0.34 – hit;

Five (5) key metrics:

… The greatest volume to the downside: GBT, CRSP, IONS, XON and ONCE

… Upside volume was weighted to: HSGX, VSTM, MDXG, SGMO and KOOL

… Leadership ($) to the downside: BLFS (-$2.62), RGNX (-$0.91), CRSP (-$0.72), IONS (-$0.56) and QURE (-$0.41)

… Best moves ($) to the upside: AXGN (+$1.140, EDIT (+$1.10), CLLS (+$1.05), VYGR (+$1.01) and RENE.L (+$1.00)

... The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) closed:

Wednesday was up +0.74% with after NOT indicating in the pre-market
Tuesday was down -0.66% with after NOT indicating in the pre-market
Monday (10/1) was down -0.63% with after a pre-market indication of +0.61%
Friday was up +0.06%
Thursday was up +1.04%
Last Wednesday was up +0.34 %

Henry’omics:

The sector was bouncing as investors were hoping for a value rebound which didn’t begin until the mid-day’s trading turned the corner!

These recent share pricing disconnects and steep dives followed by rapid inclines are disconcerting.

Where is the SUPPORT other than trading?

The short sellers were making money, now it’s time to go – a little longer … UNTIL Q3 results initiate DECLINES pre-reporting!

Investors need to stay – DEFENSIVE …

Of the 45 companies covered on Wednesday; 16 downside equities finished in a range of -0.02% (SLDB) to -15.87% (BLFS) while 27 upside equity oscillated from +0.14% (FIXX) to +17.33% (KOOL +$0.06) with 2 flat close (BSTG and OSIR).

Volume is low but, moving up especially to the downside while the low hanging fruit of the upside has increased.

Luckily volume is rising as compared to the 3 month numbers as downside measurements outweighed the upside “book”.

News is NOT helping as there isn’t ANY; companies are holding their “water” until their LPS (loss-per-share) earning’s announcement.

Out and about:

Aduro Biotechnologies (ADRO) closed down again -$0.09 after Tuesday’s -$0.93 to $6.24 after Monday’s $7.18 having ended September at $7.35 as J&J bowed-out on and abandons any rights to its attenuated Listeria tech for lung and prostate cancer.

As I had stated on Friday, Monday and Tuesday, “Keep an eye on the CRISPERS: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.01 on Monday and -$2.62 on Tuesday and -$0.72 on Wednesday), while Editas Medicine (EDIT -$1.35 on Monday, -$1.36 on Tuesday and +$1.10) and Intellia (NTLA -$1.49 on Monday, -$1.37 on Tuesday and +$0.22) were UP having been dropped from this a.m.’s SELL listing. Again I wasn’t wrong!

Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) dumped another -$0.12 after Tuesday’s -$0.15, Monday’s -$0.45 at $6.85, Friday’s $7.30 and last Thursday’s $7.35 having jumped from $6.50 over a Wells Fargo (WFC) report on comparables initial data of P1/2 positive results - Nightstar Therapeutics PLC (NITE) - another correct SELL call. WFC was able to consolidate their banking “position” when AGTC prepares an offering – if they finally get clinical results, be prepared!

BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed down again -$2.62 to $13.89 after Tuesday’s -$0.66, Monday’s -$0.33 or -1.89% to $17.17, Friday’s $17.50, Thursday’s $17.23 and last Wednesday’s $16.70 – we will see an incline as BLFS preliminary revenue from sales of media products reached $5.3 million (after Q2’s $5.2M) while the 52 week change slips to +193.77. I still think it is OVERBOUGHT – right again.

SAGE Therapeutics (SAGE) closed up again +$0.43 after Tuesday’s +$0.38 and Monday’s -$2.35. I kept saying SAGE was OVERSOLD;

Verastem Oncology (VSTM) closed up again +$0.34 after Tuesday’s +$0.155 and Monday’s -$0.73 and a Wednesday’s aftermarket indication of +$0.09 or +1.28%. My OVERSOLD rants were on target!

From the pre-open newsletter: “I hope that investors have been buying these bottoms … a rebound is due, as I had stated “I’m still cautious yet, waiting for some of the oversold to “value-up”, maybe today, tomorrow - likely if not by Friday”

October sessions:

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 27 advancers and 2 flat

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 12 advancers and 1 flat

Monday (10/1) closed NEGATIVE with 33 decliners, 13 advancers and 1 flat

In 19 sessions in September – there were 10 negative closes and 9 positive close;
In 21 August sessions – 6 had negative and 15 had positive closes

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

35 companies, 1 interpreter!

Insight, foresight and recommendation

My motto … never leave an investor uninformed! I say today what others won’t, so you can do what others can’t.

My name is Henry McCusker; I endorse these opinions under my own name and with a subscription based membership.

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my qualitative analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.