October 9, 2018 6:14pm
Another negative close after experiencing an open and mid-day upside
Pre-open indications: 6 HITs and 3 MISS
Out and about: Audentes Therapeutics (BOLD) proposed a $150 M offering and a $22.5 M overallotment. What is the status of the Histogenics (HSGX -$0.03 to $0.56) as downside volume increases following announcing a 26.15 M share and warrant offering priced at $0.65? Is it as I called it a “sucker’s bet” – pricing; should be $0.35 to $0.40 after a failed P3 trial?
RMi puts the facts into evidence for the metrics to speak; my motto, “Never leave an investor uninformed”.
NO ads, job lisings - just straight-forward content!
A daily report may say little or a lot and its final judgement may be inconclusive; yet it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined and evaluated.
Daily analytics and metrics:
- The Dow closed down – 56.21 points or -0.21% to 26,430.57
- The S&P closed down -4.09 points or -0.14% to 2,880.34
- The NASDAQ closed barely up +2.07 points or +0.03% to 7,738.02
The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:
- The open was positive with an A/DL of 28/16 and 1 flats;
- The mid-day was positive with an A/DL of 25/17 and 3 flats;
- The close was negative with an A/DL of 18/23 and 4 flats;
Pre-open indications: 6 HITs and 3 MISS
- Biostage (BSTG) closed down -$0.00 – hit;
- MiMedx (MDXG) closed down -$0.06 – hit;
- Osiris (OSIR) closed down -$0.53 – hit;
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed up +$0.29 – hit;
- Editas Medicine (EDIT) closed down -$0.10 – miss;
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed down -$0.66 – miss;
- Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) closed up +$0.73 – hit;
- Vericel (VCEL) closed down -$0.05 – hit;
- Verastem Oncology (VSTM) closed up +$0.17 – miss;
Financing:
Audentes Therapeutics, Inc. (BOLD), a clinical stage biotechnology company focused on developing and commercializing gene therapy products for patients living with serious, life-threatening rare diseases, intends to offer $150 million in a public offering. In addition, BOLD intends to grant the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional $22.5 million.
BofA Merrill Lynch, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and Cowen are acting as joint book-running managers for the offering. Wedbush PacGrow is acting as co-manager.
BOLD closed up +$0.37 to $36.70 with a 52 week change of +36.12% and 37.33 M shares outstanding and a float of 29.2 M shares – issue a -8.43% or 1.97M share short ratio. A strong point is institutional ownership of 103.95% (?) and a minimal 2.32% owned by insiders. Current cash position of $314.43 M and NO debt enhances the raise.
Five (5) key metrics:
… The greatest volume to the downside: HSGX, IONS, MDXG, SGMO and XON
… Upside volume was weighted to: VSTM, BMRN, CRSP, BLUE and ONVO
… Leadership ($) to the downside: SAGE (-$7.12), RARE (-$3.61), SLDB (-$2.04), GBT (-$1.77) and ALNY (-$1.56)
… Best moves ($) to the upside: BMRN (+$2.94), BLUE (+$2.91), ONCE (+$0.73), ADRO (+$0.42) and RGNX (+$0.40)
… The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) closed:
- Tuesday was down -0.45% after indicating a NEGATIVE -0.04% in the pre-market;
- Monday was down -0.76% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;
- Friday was down -1.15% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;
- Thursday was down -2.79% % after NOT indicating in the pre-market;
- Wednesday was up +0.74% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;
- Last Tuesday was down -0.66% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;
Henry’omics:
Sector equities fell Tuesday after a solid start and mid-day as trading ate its breakfast and lunch!
The S&P 500 closed lower for the fourth straight day. The Dow underperformed. The Nasdaq Composite rose slightly to snap a three-day losing streak.
The 'burden of proof' is on clinical data, not a comparables movement (AGTC) and each release will have to be interpreted by investors as either affirming its viability (HSGX’s failure) followed by multiple offerings?
There is just NO news of any kind!
CEOs are extremely nervous surrounding this market as you will see more sector “participants” running to the … currently open window for offerings!
Of the 45 companies covered on Tuesday; 33 downside equities finished in a range of -0.24% (IONS) to -10.38% (CLBS) while 18 upside equities oscillated from +0.20% (FIXX) to +6.89% (ADRO) with 4 flat close (BCLI, RENE.L, BSTG and ATHX).
I reiterate that investors remain – DEFENSIVE!
Volume is still LOW … look at the depth – 6 out of 18 of the upside had higher volume while the downside shrunk with 9 had greater volume out of 23.
Out and about:
As I have been saying for the seven (7) sessions, “Keep an eye on the CRISPERS:
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP closed up +$0.29 after Monday’s -$2.00) while Editas Medicine (EDIT closed down again -$0.10 after Monday’s -$0.71) and Intellia (NTLA closed down -$0.66 after Monday’s -$0.14. Even I was surprised having a BUY on CRSP, EDIT and NTLA as a real roller-coaster keeps its downward roll this week even BEFORE Q3 LPS (loss-per-share) earnings!
Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed down another -$0.19 after Monday’s -$0.29, Friday’s -$0.08, Thursday’s +$0.34, Wednesday’s -$0.12 and last Tuesday’s -$0.15 and the previous Monday’s -$0.45 at $6.85 – it will turn soon even without data!
BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed up +$0.26 after Monday’s -0.67, Friday’s +$0.22, Thursday’s -$0.48, Wednesday’s -$2.62, Tuesday’s -$0.66 and last Monday’s -$0.33 as BLFS preliminary revenue from sales of media products reached $5.3 million after Q2’s $5.2M while the 52 week change slips to +131.43. I still think it is OVERBOUGHT, be prepared for the cost of revenue number – Maintaining SELL.
Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS) closed down again -$0.52 after Monday’s -$0.34 after Friday’s -$0.34. I’ve maintained a SELL due to spending issues, lack of a partner and managements myopic vision – Maintaining SELL although it will be a tug-of-war in share pricing.
SAGE Therapeutics (SAGE) closed down -$7.12 after Monday’s +$0.49. Even I got “whacked” on this one
Verastem Oncology (VSTM) closed up after Monday’s -$0.24 after Friday’s +$0.13. My major issue in share pricing is the side effects of this drug and a BOXED WARNING for four fatal and/or serious toxicities: infections, diarrhea or colitis, cutaneous reactions, and pneumonitis. Additionally, use of COPIKTRA is also associated with adverse reactions which may require dose reduction, treatment delay or discontinuation of COPIKTRA. WARNINGS AND PRECAUTIONS are provided for infections, diarrhea or colitis, cutaneous reactions, pneumonitis, hepatotoxicity, neutropenia, and embryo-fetal toxicity. The most common ADVERSE REACTIONS (reported in ≥ 20% of patients) were diarrhea or colitis, neutropenia, rash, fatigue, pyrexia, cough, nausea, upper respiratory infection, pneumonia, musculoskeletal pain, and anemia;
From the pre-open newsletter: “a bounce-back is due for some sector equities; it’s time or soon will be as I track aftermarket indications and more.”
October sessions:
Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 18 advancers and 4 flats;
Monday closed NEGATIVE with 34 decliners, 10 advancers and 1 flat;
Friday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 17 advancers and 2 flat;
Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 35 decliners, 8 advancers and 2 flat;
Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 27 advancers and 2 flat;
Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 12 advancers and 1 flat
Monday (10/1) closed NEGATIVE with 33 decliners, 13 advancers and 1 flat;
- In 19 sessions in September – there were 10 negative closes and 9 positive close;
- In 21 August sessions – 6 had negative and 15 had positive closes
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
