Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: the manic October ends with a positive session

October 31, 2018 4:58pm

Intellia therapeutics (NTLA) leaves investors holding a much lighter (share price) bag by NOT being transparent pre the earnings call re a postponed trial as market slaps a penalty of -$1.54 or -8.32% falling to $16.98

WHY did they try to hide the facts, a classic PR/IR blunder; the question now is – can management be trusted by investors, my response – NOT for a while or after a communication “house-cleaning”!

Pre-open indications: 2 HITs and 2 MISS

Who is defining the metrics for individual investors?

The new month's trading will be critical for the RegMed sector which will establish whetherlast month's market action was short-lived, or a return to fundamentals.

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

Daily analytics and metrics:

The Dow closed up +241.12points or +0.97% to 25,115.76
The S&P closed up +29.11 points or +1.09% to 2,711.74
The NASDAQ closed up +144.24 points or +2.01% to 7,305.90

From the pre-open newsletter, “buying into earning’s releases – an ill-advised move. Keep an eye on who is reporting as well as after and pre-market indications following volatile market sessions … Skim if you can trim, buy if it will fly and sell if pricing and volume is compelling!”

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:

The open was positive with an A/DL of 33/5 and 2 flats;
The mid-day was positive with an A/DL of 32/8 and 5 flats;
The close was positive with an A/DL of 28/15 and 2 flats;

Pre-open indications: 2 HITs and 2 MISS

bluebird bio (BLUE) closed up +$3.40 – miss;
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed up +$6.43 – miss;
Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed down -$1.49 – hit;
CRISPER Therapeutics (CRSP) closed up +$0.62 – hit;

Five (5) key metrics:

… The greatest volume to the downside: NTLA, ATHX, RARE, ADRO and VYGR

… Upside volume was weighted to: VSTM, HSGX, MDXG, SGMO and XON

… Weakness ($) to the downside: NTLA (-$1.54), RARE (-$0.98), AGTC (+$0.35), ADRO (-$0.20) and VYGR (-$0.09)

… Best moves ($) to the upside: SAGE (+$7.45), RGNX (+$4.71), BLUE (+$3.83), ALNY (+$2.42) and AXGN (+$1.54)

… The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) closed:

Wednesday was up +0.42% after indicating a positive +0.4% in the pre-market;
Tuesday was down -0.1% after indicating a positive +0.28% in the pre-market;
Monday was down -0.97% after indicating a positive +1.1% in the pre-market;
Friday was down -0.37% after indicating a negative -1.51% in the pre-market;
Thursday was up +1.15% after NOT indicating a POSITIVE +0.7% in the pre-market;
Last Wednesday was down -5.76% after indicating a NEGATIVE -0.59% in the pre-market;

Henry’omics:

Sector equities rose sharply on Wednesday for a second straight day as weak earnings and inept communication fouled Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) in its Q3 earnings debut!

Read: Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) delays and pushes back an anticipated trial of its lead gene editing treatment … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/10566

The four (4) earnings releases so far i.e. LPS or loss-per-share in BCLI, BMRN, NTLA and AXGN are flip-flopping between being very weak and just scrawny.

October’s end:

The S&P 500 lost 6.9%, its biggest one-month slide since September 2011, when it fell 7.2%;
The Dow dropped 5.1% to post its biggest monthly fall since January 2016, when it dropped 5%;
The NASDAW plunged 9.%, its largest monthly pullback since November 2008, when it shed 10.8% …

Equities have been under pressure this month amid renewed concern over rising interest rates and U.S.-China trade relations, as well as worries about slowing corporate earnings growth. On the data front, private payrolls rose by 227,000 in October, according to a report from ADP and Moody's Analytics. <CNBC>.

UPSIDE indicators – still LOW volume:

Review the range of the 34 upside from +0.07% (BMRN) to +7.60% (RGNX) while the 8 downside ranges from -0.13% (STML) to -8.32% (NTLA) with 3 flat closes (BSTG, ONVO and RENE.L);

Interesting stat: Volume DECREASED … look at the depth – 7 out of 34 of the upside had higher (than the 3 month average) volume while 4 out of the 8 downside experienced greater volume (than the 3 month average).

A lack of real volume and breadth, as more of my 45 covered companies “get involved” in the recent highs, has left me … wanting more after a manic October.

I am back preaching … CAUTION as November begins … Q3 results will befuddle investor’s belief in a rally!!

October sessions:

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 8 decliners, 34 advancers and 3 flat;

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 15 decliners, 28 advancers and 2 flat;

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 39 decliners, 5 advancers and 1 flat;

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 18 advancers and 1 flat;

Thursday closed POSITIVE with 7 decliners, 37 advancers and 1 flat;

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 41 decliners, 3 advancers and 1 flat;

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 21 advancers and 1 flat;

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 33 decliners, 11 advancers and 1 flat;

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 34 decliners, 8 advancers and 3 flat;

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 36 decliners, 8 advancers and 1 flat;

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 25 decliners, 19 advancers and 1 flat;

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 4 decliners, 39 advancers and 2 flats;

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 17 advancers and 2 flats;

Friday closed POSITIVE with 9 decliners, 35 advancers and 1 flat;

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 38 decliners, 7 advancers and 0 flat;

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 42 decliners, 2 advancers and 1 flat;

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 18 advancers and 4 flats;

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 34 decliners, 10 advancers and 1 flat;

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 17 advancers and 2 flat;

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 35 decliners, 8 advancers and 2 flat;

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 27 advancers and 2 flat;

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 12 advancers and 1 flat

Monday (10/1) closed NEGATIVE with 33 decliners, 13 advancers and 1 flat;

In 19 sessions in September – there were 10 negative closes and 9 positive close;
In 21 August sessions – 6 had negative and 15 had positive closes

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

35 companies, 1 interpreter!

Insight, foresight and recommendation

My motto … never leave an investor uninformed! I say today what others won’t, so you can do what others can’t.

My name is Henry McCusker; I endorse these opinions under my own name and with a subscription based membership.

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my qualitative analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.